Week 9 Sleepers and Busts: One Fells Swoop

Week 9 features some interesting decisions for fantasy football owners. There are plenty of fantasy-relevant players who will be out of action this week. Three of this year’s top 15 quarterbacks will be off, as will perennial point producer Drew Brees. Four of the top 18 performers at the running back position will be out of action, as is Week 8 sleeper Joe Mixon. Three of this year’s top four receivers also get a rest this week. Setting lineups may be a bit more difficult with so many impact players unavailable this weekend. With that in mind, here are my Week 9 sleepers and busts at each position.

Week 9 Sleepers and Busts

Sleeper Quarterbacks

My unofficial Week 9 sleeper at quarterback would have been Jimmy Garoppolo. I had him ranked higher than most, and even that turned out to be too low. The other quarterbacks that I am higher on than the consensus are Tom Brady and Kirk Cousins, who you are probably already starting. If those players are not available to you, you may have to dig a little deeper and hope to catch lightning in a bottle. Here are two quarterbacks who I think may fit that bill.

Matt Moore (My rank: QB18; Expert Consensus Rankings: QB23)

Matt Moore could not lead the Kansas City Chiefs to victory last week, but he played well. He threw two touchdowns, did not turn the ball over, and finished as the QB12 for the week against a solid defense. He is in a very similar spot this week when Kansas City hosts the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have been much more susceptible defensively on the road this season. They have allowed 22.3 points per game on the road, compared to just 13.8 at home. Moore is an underrated veteran who should be able to put up solid if unspectacular, results. Several high-end quarterbacks have a Week 9 bye and a few others (most notably Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray) who have/had imposing matchups. If you are in a pinch, you can certainly do worse than Moore.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (My rank: QB20; ECR: QB25)

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a lot like Jameis Winston without Winston’s weapons and therefore his ceiling. I would not recommend starting Fitzpatrick in 12-team leagues, and I certainly would not recommend watching him play no matter which format you play him in. But there are reasons to at least consider buying in this week. Week 9 represents the most realistic chance Miami has had to win a game this season. The New York Jets are on the brink of falling apart due to their poor play and questionable leadership. Gardner Minshew finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback last week against the Jets. Fitzpatrick is riskier than Moore but can provide starter-worthy production in this matchup, making him a solid sleeper.

Bust Quarterback

Lamar Jackson (My rank: QB12; ECR: QB6)

Yes, I understand Lamar Jackson has been fantasy’s top quarterback on a per-game basis in 2019. Yet I just cannot call him a must-start in Week 9. I have him at QB12, so he is a fringe starter for me. By that, I mean that if there are no streamers available, I do not mind starting him. However, you have to be aware of the downside. No opposing quarterback has finished as a top-20 fantasy quarterback against New England. Kyler Murray proved on Thursday that one big play can turn a dud into a solid fantasy effort. And Jackson certainly can make dynamic plays with both his arm and legs. But I just cannot rely on it this week. I am essentially avoiding anyone playing the Patriots until further notice, and that includes Lamar Jackson.

Sleeper Running Backs

I was rather high on Matt Breida compared to the consensus, but of course, he has already played as well. Here are a few other running backs I am high on this week.

Frank Gore (My rank: RB23 in Standard; ECR: RB29)

We can say with pretty reasonable certainty what Frank Gore should provide owners this week from a pure rushing standpoint. He should get about 15 carries which will lead to roughly 70 rushing yards. The difference between where I rank Gore and where the consensus does essentially comes down to touchdown probability. I think it is highly likely Gore scores this week, while the consensus seems a little more skeptical. Buffalo is the biggest favorite on the board this week, while Washington has allowed the fifth=most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. I believe Gore gets into the end zone in this game, which would elevate him into low-end RB2 territory.

Damien Williams (My rank: RB28 in PPR; ECR: RB33)

Damien Williams had a season-high 30 rushing yards last week against Green Bay. Yes, you read that correctly. Sufficed to say, my preseason expectations for Williams have not been fulfilled. However, I think he is worthy of consideration in Week 9. Williams was used rather exclusively once LeSean McCoy fumbled the ball away in the second half of last week’s loss. That may lead to Williams finally getting the chance to be the lead ball carrier for Andy Reid’s ballclub. Playing Williams is not without risk. He has a very low floor because we simply do not know if he will be featured, or if he will once again take a back seat to McCoy. The matchup also is not ideal. Minnesota has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs this year. I like Williams as a high-risk, high-reward Flex play this week.

Bust Running Backs

In the interest of transparency, I was lower on Kenyan Drake than the consensus and benched him for Mark Walton in a high-stakes league. That did not work out. Here are a couple of other running backs I expect to fall short of expectations in Week 9.

Adrian Peterson (My rank: RB30 in Standard; ECR: RB23)

Adrian Peterson has proved many doubters (myself included) wrong over the past few weeks. Peterson has eclipsed 80 yards from scrimmage in three consecutive games. I just have a hard time believing that streak will continue against the Buffalo Bills. As I mentioned in the Gore paragraph, Buffalo is favored by double-digits. That may limit Peterson’s usage. Peterson is also dealing with an ankle injury, which could limit his mobility. Washington may be starting rookie quarterback Dwayne Haskins this week. If that is the case, I believe this could also negatively affect Peterson. Buffalo would be best served to stack the box to force Haskins to beat them through the air. Peterson has a reasonable floor but I just do not think the ceiling is there to make me want to play him in this matchup.

LeSean McCoy (My rank: RB37 in PPR; ECR: RB27)
Devin Singletary (My rank: RB33 in Standard; ECR: RB27)

I am lumping these two backs together because my relatively low rankings on them are in conjunction with my higher rankings of their backfield mates. LeSean McCoy is still the presumed starter in Kansas City. But I have a feeling that may turn this week following last week’s untimely miscue. As for Singletary, I just do not see the usage being there in this game. He has carried the ball just 10 times in two games since returning from a hamstring injury. He seems to be the team’s designated passing back, which may not be necessary in a game Buffalo should handle with relative ease. The pair has decent upside, and I do not mind inserting either one at the Flex spot depending on your other options. I would just prefer to leave them on Week 9 benches.

Ty Johnson (My rank: RB40 in PPR; ECR: RB34)

I had Ty Johnson listed here last week, which worked out. Despite him getting just eight touches last week, Johnson still has a relatively high Week 9 ranking. I just do not see it. Detroit used a four-man backfield last week. And yes, they cut Paul Perkins following the game, but that does not mean Johnson is suddenly guaranteed the bulk of the work. Johnson’s upcoming matchup is not ideal, either. The Raiders have not played bad run defense at all. They have limited opposing running backs to just under four yards per carry and have allowed just three rushing touchdowns this year. I suppose if Tra Carson is out due to his hamstring issue, Johnson could be worth playing. But I just do not think the risk is worth the reward, regardless of format. I would pass on Johnson this week.

Sleeper Wide Receivers

Corey Davis (My rank: WR32 in Standard; ECR: WR38)
A.J. Brown (My rank: WR33 in Standard; ECR: WR44)

My wide receiver rankings are mostly in line with the consensus, so there are not a ton of players to choose Week 9 sleepers and busts from. I do like Tennessee’s duo of Corey Davis and A.J. Brown this week. They take on the Carolina Panthers in Week 9. Carolina has allowed the seventh-most points per game to opposing wideouts on the year. Ryan Tannehill has posted top-15 fantasy finishes in each of his two starts as the Titans’ starting quarterback. Davis and Brown are part of a four-man cluster at the wide receiver position, so they carry a lower floor than several other wide receivers in this range. That is especially true for Brown, who has had three or fewer catches in all but one game this season. With six of this year’s top 24 receivers on bye, this could be a good spot to start Davis and Brown.

Bust Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown (My rank: WR48 in PPR; ECR: WR41)

My lowest ranking wide receiver among all in the top 40 was Christian Kirk. (This article would have been so much easier to write had the Thursday night game been played on Sunday.) The only other receiver I am lower on compared to the consensus is Marquise Brown of the Baltimore Ravens. Brown is the ultimate low floor, high ceiling player. Considering the Ravens are facing the New England Patriots and their secondary, I will put my money on “low floor” concerning Brown’s expected output. Brown also does not appear fully recovered from an ankle injury which has sidelined him for nearly a month. Most seem to consider him a possible Flex play this week, but I would seek a safer option given the injury and the matchup.

Sleeper Tight End

Darren Fells (My rank: TE8 in PPR; ECR: TE14)

Darren Fells has emerged as a real weapon in Houston’s offense. The six-year vet has already set career highs in receptions (23) and touchdowns (5). He has been one of the more consistent contributors at a position notorious for inconsistency. Fells has four top-eight weeks since Week 3. His Week 9 matchup is not particularly imposing. Jacksonville has allowed three touchdown receptions to tight ends in their last three games, including last week’s two-touchdown effort by Ryan Griffin, who had just one score over his previous 20 games. Fells has just a good a chance as any tight end to catch a tight end this week, making him a starter for me in all formats.

Bust Tight End

T.J. Hockenson (My rank: TE14 in Standard; ECR: TE9)

T.J. Hockenson has done almost nothing since Week 1, and yet he continues to be overvalued week in and week out. He scored more fantasy points in standard formats in his debut than he has since. And his Week 1 breakout has been devalued in my eyes because Arizona’s defense has since been exposed as one vulnerable to even substandard tight ends. In his last six games, the rookie has a grand total of 109 yards and one touchdown. Hockenson does have a decent matchup against Oakland this week, and his pedigree means there is a high ceiling in there somewhere. But I just cannot trust him based on his lack of consistent volume in Detroit’s offense. There are much safer options on the board this week.

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