Welcome to my Week 5 Survivor Pool picks! We had a close call with the Chargers last week but managed to survive another week. This week should provide another entertaining and unpredictable slate of NFL action. Here is my attempt to navigate through the weeds and try to pull out some winners. Below are my Week 5 survivor pool picks ranked by confidence level.
Week 5 Survivor Pool Picks
Best Bet: New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts
New England predictably got back in the win column last week against Miami. They should be able to put together their first winning streak of 2018 when they host the Indianapolis Colts on Thursday night. This game really sets up as a perfect storm for New England. The Patriots played at home last week and earned a relatively easy victory against Miami. They now get to stay at home and face a road-tripping Colts squad on a short week.
Indianapolis limps into New England after playing the maximum 70 minutes of football in a 37-34 overtime loss against Houston. The defense was on the field for 77 plays and now faces New England’s potent offense on just three days’ rest. The Patriots should be able to take advantage of Indianapolis’ fatigued defense in this matchup. The Colts offense will be operating without leading wideout T.Y. Hilton, running back Marlon Mack, and tight end Jack Doyle on Thursday night. They do not figure to be able to keep pace with New England on the scoreboard. New England should cruise to victory and they are my top Week 5 Survivor Pool pick.
Next Best Thing: Carolina Panthers v. New York Giants
For those looking to “save” New England for another spot down the road (a strategy I strongly advise against), Carolina makes for an excellent alternative. The Panthers are fresh off an early bye week and host the struggling Giants in Week 5.
Despite the addition of dynamic running back Saquon Barkley, New York averages the fourth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Giants have reached 20 points in one of four games this season, and haven’t scored 30 points in a game since 2015. That streak should remain intact against a Carolina defense that has not allowed 30 points at home since the 2016 season. I expect the Panthers to jump out in front early and ride their defense to a Week 5 win.
Check out our Week 5 Sleepers: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Best of the Rest
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
I always try to avoid road teams in divisional games in survivor pools, but the Rams are rolling right now. The offense has scored at least 33 points in each game so far this year and shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Jared Goff is on pace to break the NFL record for passing yards in a season, Todd Gurley is on his way to another potential 2,000-plus yards from scrimmage, and the Rams sport three receivers on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards. Other than that, they’re not very impressive…
As if the Rams needed another edge, they also have the benefit of a little extra rest heading into their Week 5 trip to Seattle after having played on Thursday night last week. The Seahawks have posted decent defensive numbers to date, but they have not encountered an offense anywhere near the caliber of the Rams to this point in the year. The loss of free safety Earl Thomas could not have come at a worse time for Seattle. Backup Tedric Thompson will be thrust into a difficult position against the high-flying Rams. I think Los Angeles has too much firepower for Seattle to contend with and should remain undefeated after Week 5.
Cincinnati Bengals v. Miami Dolphins
These teams enter Week 5 with identical 3-1 records, but their Week 4 games, in particular, suggest these teams are not quite as even as their records would indicate. Cincinnati went into Atlanta and earned a last-second, 37-36 victory against the Falcons. They trail only Kansas City among AFC teams in terms of points scored. Cincinnati has averaged 31.5 points per game so far this year. That is quite impressive considering they have played three road games and hosted the Baltimore Ravens in their lone home game.
The Dolphins started the year with three straight wins but were exposed a bit in last week’s 38-7 loss in New England. The Patriots had 449 yards of total offense against what had been a stingy defense. Upon reflection, Miami may have benefited from facing the Titans, Jets, and Raiders in Weeks 1-3. The Bengals should put up plenty of points in this game and emerge victoriously. If you have already selected the teams above, Cincinnati makes for a solid Week 5 Survivor Pool pick.
Favorites Who Should Win
New Orleans Saints v. Washington Redskins
The potent New Orleans Saints’ offense will get a boost on Monday night when running back Mark Ingram returns from a four-game suspension. New Orleans trails only the Rams and Chiefs in total scoring through four weeks of the season. In my Week 5 rankings column, I opined that this could be a blowup game for Drew Brees despite Washington’s stingy pass defense. However, the Saints still have issues defensively which prohibit me from putting them higher on this list.
The main reason New Orleans seemed to have improved last week was the Giants’ refusal to take shots down the field and stick with the running game. New York ran the ball just 15 times last week, and just two of Eli Manning’s 41 pass attempts were thrown 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage. New Orleans allowed six touchdown passes on such throws through three weeks, making Manning’s refusal to push the envelope even more baffling. I think Alex Smith will take shots down the field against the Saints’ questionable deep coverage. In short, I feel that Washington has the ability to keep this game close throughout. The Saints should still win, but their defense gives me pause.
Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills crashed back down to earth last week, failing to score in a 22-0 loss in Green Bay. They return home following two straight road games to take on a Tennessee Titans team who has scored three consecutive victories. All signs point in Tennessee’s favor, but I think this game has sort of a trap game feel to it. The Titans are coming off three straight emotional wins. They defeated divisional foes Houston and Jacksonville before beating Philadelphia on a walk-off touchdown. I think they may be in for a bit of a letdown in Buffalo on Sunday.
Tennessee also does not strike me as a particularly overwhelming 3-1 team. Each of their three wins has come by just three points. They have yet to eclipse 20 points in regulation in any game, which means Buffalo should be able to stick around for a while. Tennessee is not the kind of team that will run away and hide after getting out to a big lead. The Titans like to grind out games and will likely take a similar approach this week. This tendency usually lends itself towards closer contests. This trend and the potential for a letdown are why, though I think they will win, I would shy away from using Tennessee as my Week 5 survivor pool submission.
Houston Texans v. Dallas Cowboys
The Texans finally won their first game since Week 11 of 2017 when they topped the Colts in overtime. But the win was aided by Colts’ coach Frank Reich’s decision to convert a fourth down late in the overtime period. Had Indianapolis punted, the game would have ended in a tie and the Texans would still be winless.
The Cowboys, for their part, have not been much better, particularly on the road. Dallas has scored just 21 combined points in their two games away from home. Ezekiel Elliott will certainly be featured after a massive 240 yards from scrimmage in last week’s victory against Detroit. But I question how successful he will be against a Texans’ defense that has allowed just 3.5 yards per rush over the season’s first month. I think the Texans are the safer pick here, but this Week 5 clash of intrastate rivals is one I would look to avoid in survivor pools.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
When people think of the best teams in the NFL, the Baltimore Ravens do not usually come to mind. But Baltimore has posted the second-best point differential in the entire NFL, trailing only the Rams. The Ravens are also the only team besides the Rams to post three double-digit victories. Baltimore looks to keep rolling when they head to Cleveland to face the upstart Browns.
Cleveland is a team who is still learning how to win games, but they remain highly competitive each week. The Browns have been tied or ahead through 59 minutes of action in every game they have played so far this year. The only other teams who can make that claim are the Rams and Chiefs, both of whom are undefeated through four weeks. I still think Baltimore finds a way to earn a victory here, but I think they will be in for a dogfight.
Philadelphia Eagles v. Minnesota Vikings
The combined records of these teams sit at just 3-4-1. This is not what many expected considering these teams combined to lose just six games all of last season on their way to the NFC Championship Game. Minnesota has not won a game since Week 1 and currently is tied with Detroit for the sixth-worst point differential in all of football. This is certainly not what the Vikings had in mind when they upgraded their roster in the offseason. They will be desperate to right the ship Sunday afternoon in Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is still working its way back to reasonably good health. They lost a frustrating game last weekend in Tennessee but have won both of their 2018 home games. All four Eagles games have been decided by six points or less. This figures to be another hotly-contested game between two clubs who have not lived up to preseason expectations to this point. I think Philadelphia ekes out a win but would not risk either team in a survivor pool.
It’s a Trap!
Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
In my survivor pool reboot, I took the Chargers and am so happy I did. I am happy because they won, of course. But I am also thrilled that I never have to consider taking them again. Nobody seems to turn what should be easy games into nailbiters like the Los Angeles Chargers. Philip Rivers threw a pick-six in the first minute last week, and Caleb Sturgis missed two extra points and a field goal against an undermanned San Francisco team. They now host another inferior opponent in the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders finally found their way into the win column after last week’s overtime victory against Cleveland. Despite finally getting off the schneid, Oakland will remain highly motivated to take out their division rivals. This game feels like it will come down to the very end. If I had to pick, I would take the Chargers, but I have a very bad feeling that the Chargers are going to ruin some survivor pools in the next two weeks.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Both of these teams showed a lot of fight in close losses last week. Playing without their starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, the 49ers still managed 364 yards of offense and 27 points in a 29-27 defeat in Los Angeles against the Chargers. A couple of interceptions by C.J. Beathard proved costly in the loss. Arizona dropped to 0-4 after a last-second loss against Seattle, but there were signs of life. The Cardinals only scored 17 points, but that nearly doubled their output from their three prior games when they combined to score just 20 points. New starting quarterback Josh Rosen made some good throws and Arizona finally got David Johnson enough touches to do some damage.
San Francisco is probably the smart choice here, and they are the team I would go with if forced to make a pick. They are playing at home and Rosen is likely to struggle in his first career road start. But Beathard’s career mark as a starter is just 1-5. He turns the ball over way too much (once every 25.5 dropbacks) to put any sort of confidence in backing him or the 49ers to get the job done. Despite the temptation, I would avoid this game in survivor pools.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
This AFC clash is the marquee game on the Week 5 slate for me. It is the age-old battle of offense versus defense. Kansas City leads the league in points scored, and Jacksonville tops all teams in points allowed. This game should be a very entertaining chess match. Kansas City uses motion and exotic looks to create mismatches in coverage. Jacksonville has the league’s best cornerback tandem in Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye.
Kansas City is favored in this game, but I wonder if they are in line for a little bit of a letdown. The Chiefs are coming off a short week after an emotional, come-from-behind victory in Denver against their divisional rivals. They also have a date in New England with the Patriots next week. I think Jacksonville’s presence defensively will present unique challenges for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. The absence of Leonard Fournette hurts Jacksonville, but they can still grind out yards against a Chiefs’ defense that has struggled in all phases so far. Personally, I would just sit back and enjoy what should be a very entertaining contest.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets
I am a lifelong Jets fan and I cannot figure out for the life of me why the Jets are favored in this game. Before the season, the Jets were not projected to be favored in a single game. They destroyed Detroit on the road in Week 1 and have since been favored in both of their both games. Everyone seems to forget that they are led by a rookie quarterback and lack playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Denver began the year with two consecutive victories but have since lost games to Baltimore and Kansas City. The Ravens and Chiefs are a combined 8-1, so these losses hardly seem like ones that should alter one’s perception of Denver. It is not as if the Broncos have any really bad losses on their resume. New York’s defense could keep them close and may even win the game for them, but I certainly would not risk anything of value on the Jets winning this game, including my Week 5 survivor pool entry.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
This should be an entertaining game between rivals in what is probably the best division in football – the NFC North. Detroit swept the season series a year ago, but that comes with the obvious disclaimer that Aaron Rodgers was absent for both games. Rodgers does not appear to be at full strength as he battles through a knee injury, but he continues to will his way through games. He will certainly be tested as he may be without wide receivers Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison in this game.
Detroit has been all over the place, which is ultimately why I would steer clear of this game. We are talking about a team whose two home games to date have resulted in a 31-point loss to the Jets and a 16-point victory over the Patriots. Call me crazy, but I think predicting which Detroit Lions team will show up on Sunday is a fool’s errand. I do think they will be focused on taking down the Packers in this one, which means this should be a close game.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
This game is a fairly obvious game for me to avoid as far as survivor pools are concerned. Both teams are prolific on offense and atrocious on defense. The Falcons and Steelers each average over 400 yards of offense and allow over 400 yards on defense. The Vegas total on this game currently sits at 57, which seems far too low in my opinion. If this game was played in Atlanta, the total would probably be in the 60s.
If you still insist on taking a side in this game, here is my final plea to try to help you. Since 1940, home teams who have scored at least 36 points and had zero turnovers have a record of 402-4. Three of those losses have occurred in the last three weeks, and they are all attributed to these two teams. Stay. Away.
Mick Ciallela has been writing for FantraxHQ since July 2017. He has also written for Bleacher Report. He is a lifelong sports fan and has been an avid fantasy sports player for many years. Mick was the Overall Champion of both the 2016 Football Challenge – Roto and 2017 Play 3 Football contests hosted by CDM Sports. MIck was born and raised in Mount Vernon, New York and currently resides in New London, Connecticut.
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