The advent of fantasy football has made the NFL Draft a beautiful experience. Without the dynasty format, how else would fans be able to share the pain of Tyler Allgeier watching Bijan Robinson get drafted to take his job?
How else can we care about selections made that don’t impact our favorite team? No, thanks to fantasy football, we get to watch with anticipation as skill players are taken and passed over time and again.
So with the NFL Draft this week, let’s consider which teams have the juiciest landing spots for rookie running backs.
After all, De’Von Achane shot up boards rightfully so after being taken by the Miami Dolphins. Achane benefited from a statue at QB, injury-prone competition, and the 29th easiest schedule in the NFL.
So let’s look at quarterback situations, current competition, and upcoming schedules. There are other factors of course. But these will be the most important in figuring out where we want our rookie running backs to go.
Best Landing Spots for Rookie Running Backs
Cincinnati Bengals
I’m cheating here a little bit (again) after covering this team last week. While I did advocate for adding Zack Moss and Chase Brown, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t hope for a running back to be added to this room.
So, to recap, they’re going to be wrapping Joe Burrow in plexiglass this season so don’t expect him to vulture touchdowns. The Bengals also own the 6th easiest schedule in the NFL next year.
Even if Tee Higgins doesn’t stick around, the offense should be explosive with a healthy Burrow this year. That means plenty of points and touchdowns to go around. Currently, there’s no reason not to expect this offense to fly for an entire rookie running back contract.
As for the competition, Zack Moss signed a 2-year deal for $8M. Even if he’s given the job this year, he would either get cut next year for doing poorly or leverage his performance to likely sign somewhere else in two years.
Meanwhile, Chase Brown logged less than 200 yards on the ground last year. As a 5th round pick, he could be the next Allgeier. But he could also be replaced just as easily. Teams just don’t view late-round investments as permanent fixtures.
Both are cheap, so I still recommend adding them. It’s possible the Bengals don’t select a running back early enough to challenge them. But if they do, watch out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With Baker Mayfield reupping in Tampa Bay, the thoughts around the league are that the Buccaneers have secured stability. Of course, that’s what they said about the Seattle Seahawks signing Geno Smith.
While I am a Smith truther overall, what’s obvious is that things are less than stable in Seattle. Smith remains the starter even under Ryan Grubb from the University of Washington as his new offensive coordinator. Though we should keep an eye on what happens to Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.
Regardless of what’s happening on the West Coast, what we can at least be confident in, is that Mayfield, a statue, will be the Buccaneer’s starting QB in 2024.
And with the NFC South looking to be a weak division once again, expect the Bucs to go for their fourth straight divisional title.
Rachaad White may have taken the reins last year, but he still logged just 3.6 yards per carry and a 67.6 PFF grade. While the receiving chops are real and will dent any potential rookie running back coming in, call me a non-believer in the total package.
Houston Texans
When C.J. Stroud skipped the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, no one was surprised. While the quarterback has good elusiveness in the pocket, he’s not impressing anyone with his jets.
Stroud represents the newest and shiniest thing in the revolving door that is the quarterback position. While a successful rookie campaign promises little about what we should expect moving forward, it is a prerequisite in this league to attaining franchise QB status.
If Stroud lives up to all the promise, expect the Texans offense to hum in years moving forward.
While the Texans do have the 7th hardest schedule in the league for 2024, the AFC South remains relatively weak. A running back can still take advantage so long as they’re the right fit.
Though Dameon Pierce was a fantasy darling after his rookie campaign, his style clearly did not work in Bobby Slowik’s offense. He logged less than 3 yards per carry and never got anything going.
Of course, the elephant in the room here is Joe Mixon. But he turns 28 in July and signed for just $13M guaranteed. That’s less than the likes of Najee Harris and James Conner. Don’t be so sure that Mixon is the long-term answer in Houston.