It is time once again for my weekly look into my favorite player props for the upcoming NFL slate. Last week was a much-needed perfect week, so hopefully we can keep the momentum going as we approach Thanksgiving Week. Moreso than usual, a couple of these lines are sportsbook-specific. I always preach about shopping for the best line possible, and that is playing out in real-time. Several lines have moved as I have been researching and writing up these picks. I feel like I have found a couple of spots where we have an edge, so let’s get right to it! Here are my three favorite NFL player props for Week 11. If you are tailing any or all of these plays, please do so responsibly.
Week 11 NFL Player Props
Sam Howell OVER 34.5 Pass Attempts (-115, DraftKings)
Last week, the easiest of my three victories came when I picked Dak Prescott to exceed 242.5 passing yards against the New York Giants. My rationale was that the sportsbooks were putting too much stock on the expected outcome of the game and not how Dallas had become a much more pass-oriented offense of late. I think a lot of that same logic applies to this Week 11 NFL player prop. Because if you think Dallas is pass-happy, let me introduce you to the Washington Commanders. Washington has the highest passing percentage in the NFL. And sure, they are 4-6 and have trailed for a decent amount of time. But they also lead the league in shotgun percentage on first down and are third overall in PROE (pass rate over expected).
Sam Howell has 41 or more pass attempts in six of his last seven games. That includes 42 attempts in an October loss against the Giants. Yes, Washington should win this game. But there is no guarantee this game is a blowout. The Commanders have yet to win a game by two scores this season, and they rank 30th in defensive DVOA. And Washington has already proven that they are willing to throw the ball even when ahead. In the only game among the last seven where Howell went under this number, Washington ran just 50 offensive plays. That should not be an issue in this game. The Commanders should run plenty of plays, and the majority of those will be Howell passes. I am locking this in as one of my top picks of the week.
Gabe Davis UNDER 40.5 Receiving Yards (-125, PointsBet)
I think there are a few narratives at play here, any or all of which could result in Gabe Davis having a subpar game on Sunday. First, let’s start with Davis himself and his recent play. In his last five games, Davis has only had 15 receptions for 170 yards. What’s worse is that in one of those games he had nine grabs for 87 yards. That means in the other four games, he has had a total of six catches for 83 yards. Davis is known for making big plays, but during this five-game stretch, he has only had one catch of 20 or more yards. He and Josh Allen simply aren’t clicking right now.
The matchup is also not a good one for Davis. Since the beginning of last season, when the New York Jets rolled out D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner as their starting outside cornerbacks, Davis has struggled mightily against them. In three games, Davis has a total of seven catches for 96 yards. He has failed to exceed three receptions or 33 receiving yards in any of the three meetings. Davis lines up outside on 83 percent of passing snaps, compared to 63 percent for Stefon Diggs and 24 percent for Khalil Shakir. The Jets do not move their corners around and generally do not shadow receivers. That means Davis will almost exclusively face Reed and Gardner when he runs a route. Pro Football Focus has both Jets corners as top-five graded players among 113 qualifiers at the position. Davis will have an uphill battle to make plays against either cornerback.
This also feels like it could be a bit of a squeaky wheel situation with Diggs. Buffalo has lost three of four games, and Diggs has only averaged 62 yards in those games. Diggs tried to distance himself from his brother’s harsh tweets following Buffalo’s loss on Monday night, but it feels like there is some discord there. This is a must-win game for the Bills, and they will need to keep their best receiver engaged throughout the entire game. When Josh Allen isn’t targeting Diggs, I would expect more passes thrown to their running backs and tight ends than their other wide receivers. The Jets are one of only two teams who have allowed less than half of their opponents’ completed passes to be caught by wide receivers.
Buffalo ran for nearly 200 yards last week and could have Leonard Fournette in the fold for this game. It would make sense for them to attack a Jets interior up front that has struggled in run coverage save for Quinnen Williams. The Jets rank 19th in defensive DVOA against the run compared to fourth against the pass. All of the tea leaves point to a quiet game for Gabe Davis. I don’t mind going under on 2.5 receptions for plus money if you are worried about him breaking a long play. But I am going to stick with the under on his receiving yards as my preferred prop in this matchup. This number is as low as 35.5 on some books, so I like getting the “free” five yards over at PointsBet.
Joshua Dobbs OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards (-118, BetRivers)
I do not think the sportsbooks are giving Joshua Dobbs enough credit with this line based on his performance. Believe it or not, Dobbs is currently second among all quarterbacks in rushing yards this season. He has surpassed 40 rushing yards in seven out of his last nine games. This is another Week 11 NFL player prop where we are getting several “free” yards, as most books have listed this number at 29.5. Minnesota’s rushing game leaves plenty to be desired as they head into this game. Alexander Mattison has been ineffective and is questionable for this game after suffering a concussion last week. Ty Chandler has just 29 career carries under his belt. With Dobbs still learning the offense, I think it is very likely that the Vikings rely on the quarterback’s running ability in certain situations in this game.
Denver has been in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed to opposing signal-callers. No quarterback has had a monster game on the ground against the Broncos this year. However, they have allowed five of the past six quarterbacks they have faced to rush for at least 20 yards against them. Denver is also coming off an emotional victory and is on a bit of a short week. They may underestimate the ability of “The Passtronaut” as a dual threat. Given the frequency with which Dobbs has been running, that is enough for me to invest in him to go over his rushing yard total on Sunday night.