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The RSM Classic: Best Bets

The PGA returns to the United States following a month of international play. Sea Island, Georgia has the honor of welcoming almost all golfers on the fringe of the Top 125 in FedEx Cup standings. Finishing this week inside that mark will guarantee a fully exempt 2024 season. Although it’s certainly not the biggest purse, this will undoubtedly be the most important event this season for the majority of the field. Their finish at the RSM Classic will determine their future as a PGA golfer.

With the international segment of the schedule being completed, fans finally have ShotLink to follow this weekend. Well, for 3 of the 4 rounds. The RSM Classic utilizes a 2-course rotation prior to the cut, mainly to allow for all 156 players to complete their rounds before the early sunset. The Plantation Course will be played once by all golfers (either Thursday or Friday), and the Seaside Course will host the rest of the rounds. While ShotLink data is not available at the Plantation Course, it has historically been almost 2 strokes easier than the Seaside Course. You won’t be able to see most of the action but expect low scores to come from the Plantation Course.

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Best Bets: The RSM Classic

J.T. Poston (+3000)

J.T. Poston’s 2023 season has solidified himself amongst the best golfers on the PGA Tour. Dating back to the John Deere Classic, he has 8 straight events of gaining 5+ strokes to the field. He finished T7 or better in 5 of those 8 events. If you were to look at his strokes gained data, this recent success would not be surprising.

The past 3-4 months have been J.T. Poston’s career best in both Approach and Putting. He’s also been very consistent scrambling around the green, but with the way he’s been striking the ball, there hasn’t been much need. The only part of J.T.’s game that isn’t world-class is his driver. He’s slightly below average in both distance and accuracy. Luckily for J.T., both courses at The RSM Classic are second-shot courses that reward the best putters.

Getting a golfer with J.T.’s form and course fit at 30/1 is a great bet. With the way he’s been playing, it’s only a matter of time before he wins again. If he can continue to play the way he has, J.T. Poston is primed to be one of the best golfers in the world. I can already tell you I will be betting on Poston for years to come, and hopefully it pays off this week.

Adam Schenk (+6000)

Adam Schenk is a very similar bet to J.T. Poston, and you’re getting him at double the price. He’s finished in the Top 10 in 6 of his last 13 events. His current form approaching the green is not only at a career-high, it’s over half a stroke better than his previous best. Unlike Poston, Schenk is also a very long hitter compared to Tour average.

Somehow ranked 9th in FedEx Cup Standings, Schenk is still looking for his first victory on Tour.

I don’t know about you, but if someone had asked me to name the golfers in the Top 10, I would have never considered saying Adam Schenk. It’s wildly impressive for a golfer to be ranked that highly without a single victory. This requires consistent, great play, and that’s exactly what Schenk has done in 2023.

There’s bound to be some win regression for Adam Schenk in the coming year. When you put yourself towards the top of the leaderboard week after week, eventually all the stars will align and a win will come. I think 60/1 is a reasonable price for Schenk to break his maiden.

Greyson Sigg (+15000, Top 10 +1100)

This play is strictly based on the number. Greyson Sigg’s statistical profile is certainly not as pretty as Poston’s or Schenk’s. However, there are a few reasons to expect some success for Sigg at The RSM Classic.

Firstly, Sigg’s history here is not what it seems to be. Historically, Sigg’s one round at the Plantation Course has either caused him to miss the cut or put himself too far back to contend. He’s performed very well at the Seaside Course, so if he can summon enough luck to escape the Plantation Course with a score around 68, he will be en route to a solid finish.

Secondly, Greyson Sigg’s skill set is interestingly solid all around. He never puts everything together, but every facet of his game can and will shine from week to week. Any given week, Sigg can be the best player in the field in any strokes gained category. Unfortunately, Sigg is also almost guaranteed to hemorrhage strokes in one single category. If he can find a way to limit this to only being average instead of losing 5+ strokes, Sigg can certainly contend.

I don’t really think Sigg can find his first Tour victory at The RSM Classic, but I would hate for him to finally get it done and not cash in big. The main bet for Sigg is Top 10 at 11/1. He finished T15 last year while only gaining 0.5 strokes approaching the green for the entire event. If he can find one of his spike weeks with his irons, I really like his chances of finishing toward the top of the leaderboard.

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