Who’s ready for some birdies??? Some of the PGA’s best are headed to the second easiest course on Tour, TPC Craig Ranch, for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson. Most of elite players have opted to skip the visit to Texas and head straight for the Wells Fargo, but a few big names will be teeing it up. Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, and defending champ Jason Day are a few of the biggest stars in search of some low scores.
This will be the fourth iteration of TPC Craig Ranch on the PGA Tour, and if any of the previous three tournaments showed us anything, this event is wide open. There is a lot of volatility in the finishing position here, mostly due to how easy it is to score. Elite players with a bad putting week will miss the cut, and bad players with a good putting week will contend to win. I would suggest eyeing a few long shots on the betting board…anything can happen at a course as easy as TPC Ranch.
Course Info: TPC Craig Ranch
Only Keene Trace Golf Club plays easier than TPC Craig Ranch. Golfers go low here for a few reasons, the main being the easiness off the tee. The fairways are wide and the rough is not penal in the slightest. You would have to hit an incredibly bad shot to really penalize yourself. Distance off the tee certainly helps as there is no reason to not use driver on just about every hole, but shorter players have found success here as well.
Approach play is always important for success, but that goes without saying. What’s interesting about success at TPC Ranch is the amount of emphasis on putting. In a birdie fest like we’ll see this week, where the winner will be in the mid to upper 20s below par, putting will determine the winner. All other facets of the game are important as well, as you need as many birdie opportunities as you can get. Because of this being a pitch and putt contest, it makes it much harder to handicap and there is a lot more variance than expected. It will truly come down to who gets hot on the greens!
Best Bets: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson
Byeong Hun An (+2800)
Byeong Hun An is one of the most talented golfers in this field. While he doesn’t have a win on Tour to show for it, I believe this will change this week for a few reasons.
The first is An’s phenomenal ball-striking. He consistently gains strokes in both Off the Tee and Approaching the Green. He also hits the ball about 20 yards further than the average player. His short game has historically been very strong as well, although he’s been going through a rough patch in the last month. Prior to this stretch, An was one of the best putters on Tour.
Last year at TPC Craig Ranch, Byeong Hun An finished T14 while losing almost 3 strokes putting. I expect him to not only putt much better this time around, but to contend to win the tournament. His ball-striking will be there, it truly depends on how his putter performs. And at 28-1 and considering his yearly averages, I’d say it’s worth a bet for a good putting week.
Mac Meissner (+20000, Top 10 +1600)
Most of you reading this will have no idea who Mac Meissner is, and I’m excited to introduce you to the rookie. The 25-year-old had 3 collegiate victories and 3 finishes inside the Top 3 on the Korn Ferry Tour last season. After missing the first 3 cuts on Tour, he’s made 5 of the last 7 cuts, including 4 finishes inside the Top 30.
With him being very young and new to Tour, there is not a lot to go off of statistically. Through 4 months, it appears the only struggles come with inaccuracy off the tee. And we know that does not matter in the slightest at TPC Craig Ranch. Meissner is a longer hitter, an above-average ball-striker, and has a solid short game. He’s only lost strokes on the greens twice this season.
Mac Meissner is exactly the type of player you should be looking to bet this week. His odds are extremely long, and if he has a good putting week, he can find his way towards the top of the leaderboard. Considering he finished T10 in Texas earlier this month, I’d say the 16-1 number on it for this go-around is absolutely worth a look. The odds are against him to win, but you can feel very confident in the Top 10 value.