Welcome to Masters Week! The best week of the year is finally here, and I’m ready to get into the meat and bones of this spectacular event. I could go on and on about all the storylines. Tiger Woods is back… can he truly compete or is that Tiger behind us? Will Scottie show the world there’s no doubt in the world’s best? How will LIV perform in 2024’s first major? Like I said, I could go on and on. But if you’re reading this, that’s not what you want to hear.
You want to hear what it takes to win The Masters, and who I think can do it. So we might as well get right into it!
The Course: Augusta National
One of the best things about betting on The Masters is the long history. You know exactly what you’re going to get every single April. Augusta National demands excellence in every facet of the game. You simply will not put on the green jacket without gaining strokes in all major categories. Augusta requires a lot of skill, but it also a lot of thoughtfulness. If you lose focus for even a second, the course will break you. Jordan Spieth gets clowned on a lot for his ridiculous shot choices, but that’s exactly why he has the best course history in the field. The difference maker will be the willingness to hit those WTF shots, and hitting them well.
Distance certainly will help any of the 88 golfers teeing it up, as it seems The Masters moves back a tee every year at this point. While it’s not a must-have, ball-striking success is absolutely crucial and added distance never hurts. I personally believe accuracy is more important, with so many strokes being lost hitting out of the pine needles. After the obviously important approach shots, the short game is another incredibly difficult task. The undulations around and on the greens are very difficult to maneuver. There are a lot of depth changes that the television does not do justice. It will take 4 rounds of strong, consistent play across the board the win the biggest event of the year. Only the best golfers in the world can wear the green jacket.
Best Bets: The Masters
Xander Schauffele (+1600)
Xander is the perfect build to take on Augusta. As I stated earlier, the only way to win here is to be strong at every facet of the game. Xander gains strokes across the board more often than not. In fact, you have to go all the way back to the 2022 Masters to see Xander lose strokes to a field. THAT’S 42 EVENTS IN A ROW. Not even Scottie Scheffler comes close to making that number.
Over the last 5 years, Xander has been one of the best golfers in the world. The thing that’s really holding him back is actually winning tournaments. The last time Xander won an event is when he went back-to-back at the Scottish Open and Travelers in 2022. Since then, he has 11 Top 5 finishes. If he wants to ever be truly in the conversation for the world’s best, Xander Schauffele needs to win again soon.
He also needs to win a major… Xander has 7 straight Top 20s in majors, but once again has struggled to finish the job. A gold medal in Japan shows that he can win at the biggest stage, but for Xander’s career to truly be respected, he must get a major win somewhere. He has finished 2nd and 3rd at Augusta, and I fully expect him to contend once again. The only question is…can Xander Schauffele finally finish the job?
Corey Conners (+6500)
Corey Conners can absolutely win The Masters. You might think that’s a crazy claim, but it will all matter on one singular thing: putting. Luckily for Corey and his bettors, he has had some moderate success on the Augusta greens.
Conners comes into The Masters having gained strokes Tee to Green in 18 consecutive events. To make that stat even more impressive, he usually loses strokes around the green! Conners’ ball-striking is amongst the best in the world. He’s also one of the worst putters on Tour. He’s lost strokes in 7 of the 9 events he’s played in 2024. Last year he lost 3 strokes before missing the cut at Augusta, but putted well in years prior, at least for his standards. His consecutive finishes of T10, T8, and T6 show this success.
If Corey Conners can somehow, someway get hot with the putter, he could realistically be wearing a green jacket come Sunday night. Now I understand that is a lot to ask for, but since he’s shown some signs of competency on Augusta greens, I’ll take a chance. Especially at odds like 65-1!
Jake Knapp (+25000, Top 10 +1000)
You’ve always got to have a long shot or two for the majors. At a tournament as prestigious as The Masters, odds can get extremely high for guys that would typically be around 100-1 in any other Tour event. Considering Knapp has a Win, T3, and T4 in the past 7 events, there are only a few elite golfers that are coming into The Masters with better form than Jake Knapp.
That’s why I was so shocked to see his odds at 250-1. Jake Knapp has the prettiest swing on Tour. I’m not exaggerating when I say that. His tempo is a thing of beauty and he still hits it as far and accurate as anyone else. He’s also a menace on the green. Before losing 6 strokes in 2 rounds last week, he had gained strokes on the green in 6 straight events. This 29-year-old may be late to the professional game, but I can assure you he is here to stay. It won’t be long before he’s a Top 20 golfer in the world.
Knapp is my favorite play of the week. The sportsbooks do not respect his recent success, and I really think they’ll regret that. Competing in The Masters and actually winning The Masters are 2 very different things. I will have a small wager on him to win at 250-1, but a Top 10 finish at 10-1 feels like very good value. Jake Knapp will show the world he is here to stay!