NBA DFS Plays for Wednesday, 3/11: Cue up Jrue
If it weren’t for that crap that Milwaukee pulled on Monday, I would have been very pleased with my last set of picks. We got great performances from Mike Conley. Terry Rozier, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter, and Dewayne Dedmon but Milwaukee chose to rest all of their starters in an unexpected twist. That means we hit on all of our values plays though and that’s a great sign for the future. Let’s keep that rolling here for our 3/11 NBA DFS plays of the day!
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3/11 NBA DFS Point Guards
Elfrid Payton, NYK at ATL
DK ($6,500) FD ($6,200)
There’s a lot of haters when it comes to Elfrid Payton but I truly don’t understand it. This is one of the best stat-stuffers in the game, evident by his 12.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.9 assists and 1.5 steal averages over his last 19 fixtures. That equates to 36.3 DraftKings points per game, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in all but three of those games. That’s way too much for a player priced so reasonably and it looks even better when you consider the fact that Atlanta allows the most fantasy points in the league to opposing point guards. That was pretty clear when Payton dropped 35 DK points on them in their last meeting, despite going just 5-of-14 from the field.
Mike Conley, UTA at OKC
DK ($5,500) FD ($5,700)
Conley has been in this article a lot recently and it’s easy to see why when looking at his numbers. Since being re-inserted into the starting lineup, Conley has at least 26 DK points in 12 of his last 13 games. That’s essentially a 5X floor at this price tag and that’s pretty difficult to overlook from a guy who was $8,000 in the past. We also don’t hate the fact that Oklahoma City owns a 25th OPRK against oppoing PGs this season.
3/11 NBA DFS Shooting Guards
Jrue Holiday, NOP at SAC
DK ($8,200) FD ($8,700)
Holiday is one of my favorite players in the game and it’s simply tough to fade him the way he’s balling out right now. Not only has he scored at least 39 fantasy points in 11 of his last 13 games, Holiday is also averaging 45 DK points per game in that span. He’s been even more ridiculous recently, averaging 51 DK points per game across his last four fixtures. The matchup happens to be great too, with Sacramento sitting 18th in defensive efficiency.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC vs. NOP
DK ($5,100) FD ($5,200)
Bogdanovic has found a nice role for himself, starting for the Kings over the last month. Scoring at least 20 fantasy points in nine-straight games is impressive on its own but averaging 29.4 DraftKings points per game in that span shows just how special he can be. That’s a huge total from a player below $6,000 and it’s hard to understand why his price remains so affordable. Not to mention, he gets to face a Pelicans team who sits third in pace and 27th in total defense.
3/11 NBA DFS Small Forwards
Tobias Harris, PHI vs. DET
DK ($8,500) FD ($7,500)
With Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson and Joel Embiid all sidelined, Harris has established himself as the go-to guy in Philly. In fact, Toby is leading the team with a 28 percent usage rate with this current roster. That’s really clear in his fantasy production, averaging 39 DK points per game across his last 10 outings. The matchup against Detroit is the icing on the cake though, with Detroit ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency. In his one game against the Pistons, Harris had 54 fantasy points in one of the best games of his career.
Cam Reddish, ATL vs. NYK
DK ($4,900) FD ($5,000)
After a terrible start to the season, Reddish is finally finding his form. Over his last 10 games played, Reddish is averaging 27 DraftKings points per game across 29 minutes of action. That even includes two duds where he got nicked up, as his average would be about 35 fantasy points if you took those out. In addition, he gets to face a Knicks team who owns a 24th OPRK against opposing small forwards.
3/11 NBA DFS Power Forwards
Al Horford, PHI vs. DET
DK ($7,400) FD ($6,900)
Horford has been a different player since Embiid went down. While all of the other injuries are obviously beneficiary, it’s that one that’s made him so valuable again. Not only has he scored at least 26 DK points in the seven games since Embiid went down, he’s also averaging 35.7 DK points per game in that span. It’s simply put him in the play-making role that made him spectacular in Atlanta and Boston, and it’s hard to figure out why he remains in this $7,000-range. Facing a 22nd-ranked Detroit team without Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin is simply a bonus.
Paul Millsap, DEN at DAL
DK ($5,100) FD ($4,800)
Millsap’s minutes have been volatile recently but it’s lowered his price to a range that we really like. This is a dude who’s scored at least 33 DK points in five of his last 10 games while averaging 25 fantasy points per game in that span. That’s actually on par with his season average and that’s too much for a player sitting right at $5,000. Getting to face a shallow Dallas frontcourt is huge too, with Millsap collecting 23 points and eight rebounds en route to 35 DraftKings points in their one meeting earlier this season.
3/11 NBA DFS Centers
Derrick Favors, NOP at SAC
DK ($5,200) FD ($5,400)
Favors is actually very similar to Millsap. His minutes have been very inconsistent recently but he’s way too productive to be priced so cheaply. Over his last 32 games played, Favors is averaging 29 DK points per game across 26 minutes of action. That’s one of the best rates around and it tells us that he has way too much upside to be sitting just above $5,000. The reason his minutes could be bigger here is because he faces a Kings team who surrenders the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Dewayne Dedmon, ATL vs. NYK
DK ($4,700) FD ($5,000)
Dedmon is just way too affordable right now. With Clint Capela sidelined and Alex Len being traded, Dedmon is the only canter left in Atlanta. Foul trouble has limited his fantasy production recently but he’s still averaging 28.7 DraftKings points per game across 25 minutes of action over his last 11 games played. That’s eerily similar to Favors and it’s clear that both of these guys have huge upside if they play big minutes. Per-minute production like that is fantastic against a New York team that allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
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