Not all draft picks are created equal. There is a clear hierarchy to your fantasy football draft, and selecting a team defense falls to the bottom of that. In fact, some leagues have actually completely done away with this and bypass it completely. This is not the forum for that discussion, as you can already figure out where we stand on the issue. Perhaps your frustration with it, is that you are not doing correctly. For that reason, we will take a look at how to pick a defense.
How to Pick a Defense for Fantasy Football
Wait and Exhibit Patience
I acknowledge that this is an interesting place to start, but we have to be truthful. Just because waiting until the second or third to last pick is the right strategy as to how to pick a defense, it does not minimize its importance.
Now I am not suggesting that we should place the same focus on choosing your starting defense compared to your starting running back, but it deserves attention nonetheless. With that being said, based on building a winning squad and the marketplace, there is no need to rush into making this draft choice.
Sure there is going to be one or two fantasy managers, often novices, that draw groans and jeers when cracking the seal, but the majority are going to wait. While there are 32 NFL teams, there are often 10 to 12 fantasy teams in your league, so that means each week, more defenses will be on benches or the waiver wire than in starting lineups.
Each defense will have the same amount of playing time, so from that standpoint, all things are equal. This ultimately comes down to a simple supply and demand exercise. Even if you wait, you will likely still have the opportunity to draft a top-five defense. And that gets us into our next thought.
Rankings are Subjective
For the most part, we can look at quarterbacks and running backs and come up with a consensus top-five or top-10 with just the order being different. When it comes to defenses, that is often not the case as different managers will be looking at things in various ways.
Part of the reason for this is that there is simply a lot less analysis done. Instead of dissecting defenses with great debate, rankings are simply done on projections, and there can be a lot of variance there.
With that being the case, when thinking about how to draft a defense, it is a little easier to stray from the consensus.
Projections Can Change
When looking at projections at the start of the season compared to in season, there potentially could be a large variance. That is because what we think we know is often incorrect or subject to change.
The limit of projections is that they are based on past trends. All we can do, on both sides of the ball, is look to last season. It is logical to base projections for the upcoming season on that, but it is not complete. There have been a lot of changes since last year in the NFL, and no two seasons are identical.
Understand the Defense
What is going on from a scheme perspective? Is there a new coach from last year? What about personnel? Any key injuries?
Each of these factors can dictate what a defense does and drastically change things from season to season. In fact, this can sometimes change on a weekly basis if there is a key injury.
Don’t Chase Touchdowns
Defensive touchdowns generate the most fantasy points, so it only makes sense that you want teams who put points on the board. The problem though, is that while some players are better at it than others, there is a fair amount of randomness to it.
Target Turnovers, to a Degree
Generating interceptions and fumbles is a skill but only to a point. There are a lot of dependencies involved in turnovers, and we want to limit the noise when we think about how to pick a defense.
For as good as a cornerback can be, some quarterbacks simply are more prone to throwing interceptions than others. In either direction, this needs to be considered.
Go After Mayhem
What we want in a defense is pressure and sacks. A strong defensive line that generates pressure will rack up the fantasy production via sacks, but it goes beyond that. Pressure leads to interceptions, turnovers, touchdowns, and a lack of overall offense.
Know Your Scoring System
Understanding how this works is critical. Is the scoring weighted towards a specific category? How bad is the penalty for points allowed? Each factor can drastically alter how to pick a defense.
Be Prepared to Stream
On a yearly, and even weekly, basis, things change. You must be ready to pivot and use the waiver wire as your bench. As the weaker offenses present themselves, there is a clear opportunity to capitalize by targeting them from a defensive perspective.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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