I know my East Coast people loved last night’s slate! The latest game on the docket was an 8PM EST start. Must be nice to have all the games finished before bed time! I don’t know why the NBA scheduled it like that, but they’ve got my vote for more! Tonight, we’ve got a short six game slate, with the latest game at 10PM EST. We’re going to wake up to re-runs of Charmed on TNT, but NBA basketball is NBA basketball, and I’ll take it whenever I can get it. Let’s kick the first day of March off right!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
NBA DFS Targets and Preview for March 1
Pistons (15-46) vs. Wizards (27-33)
Offensive Rating: 29th vs. 22nd in the league
Defensive Rating: 25th vs. 21st in the league
Net Rating: 30th vs. 22nd in the league
Pace: 13th vs. 23rd in the league
Predicted Outcome: These are two bad teams in action, but the Pistons are a special kind of bad. Worst in the league bad. Can’t score, can’t stop you from scoring bad. The Wizards are the kind of bad where they’ve won twelve more games than the worst net rated team in the league. I’ll take the Wizards at home.
DFS Targets: I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if the over total hit in this game. On Washington, I’ll target Kyle Kuzma, Deni, KCP, and a few shares of either Neto or Ish Smith. On the Pistons, I’ll be targeting Cade Cunningham or Saddiq Bey, but that’s about where I’ll draw the line.
Hawks (29-31) vs. Celtics (36-27)
Offensive Rating: 2nd vs. 18th in the league
Defensive Rating: 27th vs. 2nd in the league
Net Rating: 14th vs. 4th in the league
Pace: 18th vs. 24th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Hawks are the 2nd best offense in the league, but they’re going up against the 2nd best defense in the league. In Boston. The Celtics have found their stride and are now nine games above .500. I trust them to make Atlanta less efficient on offense, while also benefitting from playing one of the worst defenses in the league. Celtics should win, here.
DFS Targets: In a pace up matchup for Boston, I like Brown and Tatum to put up plenty of shots. At the end of the day, their offense is still two-pronged. As for the Hawks, I only trust Trae Young to hit his value against a top defense in the league.
Nets (32-30) vs. Raptors (33-27)
Offensive Rating: 10th vs. 16th in the league
Defensive Rating: 24th vs. 13th in the league
Net Rating: 18th vs. 15th in the league
Pace: 11th vs. 26th in the league
Predicted Outcome: No Kyrie. No KD. No Ben Simmons. I don’t think it’s fair to expect much of anything from the Nets tonight.
DFS Targets: The Nets just got beat down last night by the same team at home. FVV didn’t even play. The blowout potential is too high, and the usage rates without FVV (at 100%) are too inexplicable for me to target any of these players. This game is a fade for me. I can respect if you think differently, but I’ll be completely underweight, relative to the field. If you’re going to target anyone, I’d target value. Achiuwa, Edwards, and Flynn are all $4000 and lower.
Clippers (32-31) vs. Rockets (15-45)
Offensive Rating: 27th vs. 26th in the league
Defensive Rating: 7th vs. 30th in the league
Net Rating: 19th vs. 29th in the league
Pace: 14th vs. 1st in the league
Predicted Outcome: I will never expect the Rockets to win. Neither should you.
DFS Targets: We’ve got a pace up matchup for the Clippers, so you should have ownership in Zubac, Morris, Mann, and Reggie Jackson. If KPJ is in, KPJ is good to hit his value. If he’s out, Dennis the Menace becomes a must-play. Nobody else on the Rockets should be trusted against a top ten defense.
Warriors (43-18) vs. Timberwolves (32-29)
Offensive Rating: 13th vs. 12th in the league
Defensive Rating: 1st vs. 15th in the league
Net Rating: 2nd vs. 12th in the league
Pace: 16th vs. 3rd in the league
Predicted Outcome: After watching the Warriors blow a 20+ point lead against the Mavs, it’s not safe for me to say that any team can’t beat them. It was strange to watch the best defense in the league be unable to get a stop, but everyone’s entitled to a bad game here and there. They aren’t robots. The Wolves don’t have enough on the defensive end to keep up with Steph (not many teams do). I expect the Warriors to win, but I don’t feel as confident as I should.
DFS Targets: Steph and KAT sub $11000 work for me, but they aren’t going to blow away their salaries in fantasy points. They can only meet expectations at that price. With no Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole is a must play at $5200. Kuminga is hit or miss, but when he hits, he can win you a tournament.
Mavericks (36-25) vs. Lakers (27-33)
Offensive Rating: 17th vs. 24th in the league
Defensive Rating: 5th vs. 17th in the league
Net Rating: 8th vs. 24th in the league
Pace: 30th vs. 5th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Lakers are broken. You see it. I see it. I don’t even know if they can make the play-in game at this point. I can’t even see LeBron having the desire to put those extra miles on his body, when he knows he’ll get bounced in a series. I have no confidence LA can turn this season around. Not even when AD gets back. Maybe that means this is a classic look-ahead game for Dallas and they underperform, but I’m not even sure the Lakers are able to take advantage of poor play from their opponents. I’ll take Dallas.
DFS Targets: Luka is too expensive for me at $12000. Especially with a potential blowout firmly in play for the Mavs. I like THT or Bertans to get some healthy garbage time minutes in a blowout situation, and hit their values, as they are both sub-$4600. Other than that, be careful in this matchup.
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