One of the best tools to use when drafting your fantasy football team Average Draft Position (ADP). Then when you compare that ADP to your personal rankings you are able to identify possible ADP values and busts.
You need to make sure the ADP list you are using matches your league settings. An ADP for PPR leagues will be very different from non-PPR leagues. The ADP for QBs will vary depending on if it is a one-QB league, a Superflex, or a 2QB league.
Once you have the correct list, then the fun begins. An ADP of 75 simply means that for all the drafts held, his average pick is 75. That player could be drafted with the 50th pick by someone and someone else in the next draft could be taking him as pick 100.
Your job is to look at the player and decide if his value equals his ADP and decide which round it makes sense to draft him in. The values are the players you think should be drafted earlier than ADP and the busts are the players who are being sooner than you think they should be.
Cooper Kupp – Los Angeles Rams – ADP 4
Cooper Kupp is now 30 years old. Since 2017 he has topped 1,000 yards in only two of those years. Kupp is being drafted like he will have another 1,900-yard season as he did in 2021. His projection is to have 1,344 yards receiving. That is only 50 yards less than Ja’Marr Chase. Kupp will be playing on a team with the 28th-ranked offensive line, coming off an injury, and catching passes from a QB coming back from multiple injuries. Take Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, or Austin Ekeler instead.
Derrick Henry – Tennessee Titans – ADP 24
Over the last four years, no one has had more carries than Henry. He will be running behind the worse O-Line in the league according to PFF and is still expected to run for over 1,300 yards. He will be playing on a team that will be playing from behind most of the time and should be passing more. Josh Jacobs who ran for more yardage last year and is five years younger is sitting at ADP 28.
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens – ADP 30
Last year Andrews managed 847 yards and this year he is projected to get 879. Projections for TDs are to go up from 5 to 6. That makes sense when you consider he missed two games with injuries last year. However, he will have more competition. After a very good rookie season, I expect Isaiah Likely to do even more than last year. After signing Odell Beckham Jr. and using their first-round pick on wide receiver Zay Flowers, I am not seeing enough targets to take him at ADP 30. T.J. Hockenson‘s projections have him ending the season with the same fantasy points. Wait for the extra round before grabbing your TE.
Miles Sanders – Carolina Panthers – ADP 53
Last year Sanders had 1269 yards rushing. If you look at Fantasy Pros projections, only Nick Chubb, Henry, and Jonathan Taylor are expected to rush for more yards this year than Sanders had last year. This was sharing the carries with Jalen Hurts who had 760 yards and 13 touchdowns for the Eagles. This year with the Panthers he will not have a running QB and very little competition in the backfield for carries. The RB10 from last year who is in an improved situation is the RB21 on most lists.
Keenan Allen – LA Chargers – ADP 44
Between 2017 and 2022 Keenan Allen averaged 943 yards and 6 TDs. Only one of those years did he have less than 100 catches and that year he had 97. Each of the last three years his yards per reception has been going up. He’s not slowing down he is getting better. His projection is to have more fantasy points than DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave and both of those wide receivers are going approximately 15 spots before him. I will wait for the better value.
Dameon Pierce – Houston Texans – ADP 47
Dameon Pierce took a couple of weeks to get rolling last year, but between Week 3 and Week 10, it looked like he would have a real shot at rookie of the year. The projection fell off and he injured his ankle missing the last four weeks. He has an upgraded offensive line and more than that, an improved coaching staff. Looking at Kenneth Walker III‘s ADP of 33, and it’s clear Pierce is coming off the board about 15 picks too late.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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