Starting Pitcher Barometer, Week 13: A Gallen Of New Pitchers

Well, we’re officially back to the point of the season where I look at the bottom of the Starting Pitcher Barometer and say “woof”. We had a bunch of injuries and demotions this week (see the bottom of this page) which means new blood on the back end. That isn’t always a good thing. We’ll look at a few of the newcomers today, and at least one of them is exciting!

There are still some good stashes that will impact the list whenever they arrive. Dylan Cease could be up any day, and Alex Reyes – while chock full of risk – could be a difference maker as well. Look especially towards the future of the Athletics rotation. Sean Manaea is taking the opposite approach of a contractor and is actually way ahead of schedule. It sounds like AJ Puk will pitch in relief when he’s up, but Jesus Luzardo could be another impact arm with limited innings. Look for all three of those pitchers to arrive sometime after the All-Star break.

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Starting Pitcher Barometer

The Risers & Fallers

• Lance Lynn, TEX (+17) – I won’t go into depth on Lynn in this space because I just wrote him up in my most recent Fire & Ice piece here. His numbers are deceptively lackluster. I expect him to be mixed league relevant the rest of the way.
• Andrew Heaney, LAA (-14) – Owning Heaney has been like waiting in line for Space Mountain at Disney World for two hours only to hop aboard and have some six-year-old puke up some obscenely fluorescent amalgamation of cotton candy, hot dogs, and Sprite all over your face halfway through the ride. Heaney has now made five starts after his delayed start to the season. The results? A genuinely unsettling 5.68 ERA with a FIP and xFIP that both agree that he deserves an ERA over five. The 11.37 K/9 is encouraging, but the control has eluded him, walking 3.55 batters per nine. On the bright side, his velocity is fine. The trouble has been with his changeup. It’s a pitch that he’s never used less than 11% of the time, yet this year has deployed at just a 5.6% clip. I don’t care much for two-pitch starters, which is what Heaney is with just sinkers and curveballs if he’s not using the changeup. The numbers on the change aren’t horrible to this point. That leads me to believe he will continue to gain confidence in it and utilize it more often. Until you see it though, I’d leave him on the bench.
• Anibal Sanchez, WSH (+22) – I discussed Anibal Sanchez last week and why I am now excited about him. This week I just wanted to push him up more into mixed league streaming territory. The 22 spot jump seems larger than it really is because realistically he only leapfrogged some highly mediocre pitching options.
• Jimmy Nelson, MIL (-28) – Ol’ Slippin’ Jimmy, why have you forsaken us? Like Andrew Heaney, Nelson has kept us waiting due to an injury. Now that he’s made three starts, we just wish he never came back. He has a cool 9.75 ERA thanks to 10 walks and 13 strikeouts over his first 12 innings. Suddenly you can’t spell “disaster” without “Jimmy”. It’s just a saying, don’t actually try to add that up. Unlike Heaney, however, Nelson’s velocity is way down. After averaging 93.9 MPH on his fastball in 2018, he is pumping just 92 so far. He’s a long way from the 10.21 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, and 3.05 FIP from 2018. I don’t want to completely bury him just yet, but you can’t start him until he improves.

The Newcomers

• Zac Gallen, MIA (SP46) – He’s finally here! Men, woman, and children are all dancing in the street to celebrate the Marlins finally punching Gallen’s ticket. Unfortunately, it took an injury to Pablo Lopez, but this is fantasy and Gallen is more exciting right now. He doesn’t have premium velocity or overwhelming stuff, but his command and pitchability are reminiscent of a Kyle Hendricks. Plus he wears cool glasses. His 92-94 MPH fastball is complemented by a solid slider and changeup from the right side, and he will even sprinkle in the odd curve. He gave up just one earned over five innings in his debut against the Cardinals, who have got to be sick of seeing these Marlins rookies (Jordan Yamamoto has dominated them twice in his two starts). He may not ever be as effective as Kyle Hendricks, but he still deserves to be scooped up in all but the shallowest of leagues.
• Tommy Milone, SEA (SP78) – We go from a shiny new toy in Zac Gallen to the crustiest of Quad-A type veterans in Tommy Boy. You can seemingly teach this old dog some new tricks, however, as Milone has really switched up his pitch mix this year. He has scrapped his cutter and is throwing the curve less in favor of increased slider and changeup usage. It’s working well for him, with a 3.03 ERA over 32.2 innings, 8.82 K/9, and 1.38 BB/9. He has only made three starts, working as the “Primary Pitcher” several times, which screws you over in QS leagues. That definitely affects his value. Also, while his peripherals don’t indicate any sort of implosion is forthcoming, he could easily turn back into Tommy Milone at any moment. I don’t see him being a huge asset at any point, but he could certainly be of use in deeper leagues.
• Framber Valdez, HOU (SP83) – Framber sneaks in the back end of the Starting Pitcher Barometer more because of a lack of competition than any real excitement on my part. Sorry to moisten your blanket, but I can’t lie to you. He’s a lefty who sits 92-93 with the fastball – and I always like a lefty – but he’s just a two-pitch pitcher. His curveball is ludicrous, with a 2,920 RPM spin rate that generates 21.3% whiffs and an insane .161 xwOBA. Of course, when the batter knows it’s coming over one-third of the time and his only other concern is the fastball, it’s harder to find success with that pitch. His show-me change has just a four MPH gap from his heater and doesn’t get many whiffs. He has really improved his control, at least, with a strong 64.8% F-Strike% and 45.1% Zone%. If the improved control sticks, perhaps he can be more than a left-handed Dinelson Lamet.

The Top 100 Starting Pitchers

Fell Of The List

Caleb Smith (Injury), Kyle Hendricks (Injury), Rich Hill (Injury), Sean Newcomb (Injury), Pablo Lopez (Injury), Devin Smeltzer (Minors), John Means (Injury), JA Happ (Performance), Eric Lauer (Performance).