When beginning to prepare for the 2023 fantasy football season, the first step should always be to complete your personal fantasy football rankings. While keeping in mind that there will be multiple iterations and your rankings will be an ever-evolving entity, you have to start somewhere. That somewhere is by evaluating your rankings against current ADP to find both potential values and pitfalls. With that in mind, let us take a look at three wide receiver overpays that become evident when I compare my rankings to their current ADP (as of 7/26 via Fantrax).
ADP vs. Ranks – 3 Wide Receiver Overpays
DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans (46 PPR/44 Standard)
Despite the excitement surrounding Hopkins finding a new home in Tennessee, the veteran still shows up as one of my wide receiver overpays for the 2023 season as the fourth round is simply too early.
We have to give Hopkins credit for his success when on the field last season after his suspension, but health has not been his forte as of late. Despite uncertainty at the quarterback position in Arizona for most of the season, Hopkins still managed to catch 64 passes for 717 yards in nine games. One problem is that Hopkins only caught three touchdown passes but as he enters the 10th season of his career, things are not exactly going in the right direction.
Hopkins now has to learn another new offense, but in joining the Titans, it is an offense that does not exactly focus on the downfield passing game. Additionally, Hopkins now has to deal with another quarterback situation that leaves us with more questions than answers. Ryan Tannehill has not exactly been dominant as of late and a year after spending a high draft choice on Malik Willis, the Titans will now be taking a close look at Will Levis. In short, the quarterback position will be in flux all season.
At the same time, the focus from the receiving perspective will be on the development of Treylon Burks which could push Hopkins into more of a supporting role.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings (90 PPR/103 Standard)
The rookie begins his NFL career with a large amount of buzz, but what makes him one of my wide receiver overpays is the fact that we have more questions than answers with respect to Addison.
Based on the fact that Minnesota drafted Addison in the first round of this April’s draft and he had a prolific college career, it should not be surprising to see the buzz here. The fact that the Vikings also have an opening across the field from Justin Jefferson also helps from that perspective, but we know that the bulk of the work and target share will also stick with Jefferson. Additionally, K.J. Osborn also returns and he will likely play a large role as well.
While we do not want to deal in generalities, it is also a common thread for rookie receivers to initially struggle as they get up to speed with NFL action. The fact that Addison is small, 5-11 and 173 pounds, does not work to his advantage and it remains to be seen how the 4.49 time he had in the 40-yard dash translates to the next level.
With Dalvin Cook no longer calling Minnesota home, there are also questions about the Vikings’ offense which ultimately flows down to Addison.
Another issue to be aware of is that, even if Addison ultimately has a strong season, it is still possible that he gets off to a rough start. And if that is the case, he might end up on the waiver wire and then having success on someone else’s team.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (36 PPR/34 Standard)
The success we saw out of Samuel in 2021 was, at least in part, driven by his success on the ground as he picked up eight rushing touchdowns. Perhaps just as important, Samuel was able to stay healthy which resulted in 77 receptions, 1,405 yards, and six touchdowns in 16 games.
Last season, there was uncertainty and health issues at the quarterback position for San Francisco and things did not exactly go according to plan from a health perspective for Samuel either. While he only carried the ball 17 fewer times in 2022, part of that is due to the aforementioned injuries as he played just 13 games, Samuel had five fewer rushing touchdowns.
While Samuel’s targets dropped from 121 to 94, with a corresponding decrease from 77 to 56 receptions, of greater concern is the fact that his yards per target dipped down to just 6.7. Overall, Samuel is a unique player that does not necessarily fit a true box or role within the 49ers’ offense, but the problem now is that from a weapons standpoint, the 49ers are in a lot better shape than they were in 2021 when Samuel had a career year.
The largest variable here is the addition of Christian McCaffrey, but Samuel also has to contend with Elijah Mitchell and an emerging Brandon Aiyuk, while also dealing with the question marks under center. The combination of all of these factors is what makes Samuel one of my wide receiver overpays for 2023 as it is difficult to find comfort in drafting him toward the end of the third round.
Which wide receivers are you fading in your fantasy football drafts? Share your take in the comments below! For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023