The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Adds for Week 18

By Taylor Tarter
Lars Nootbaar Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire

Here are some waiver wire targets ahead of Week 18 that you should consider adding. The following recommendations are organized as deep and shallow league targets. Of course, the players you choose to add and drop from your team should largely depend on your league size and the roster construction of your team.

More great fantasy baseball advice and analysis: Waiver Wire & FAAB Recommendations | Daily MLB Injury Report | MLB DFS Picks | Line-up Analysis | Dynasty Rankings and Strategy | MLB Bullpen Updates | MLB Player Props | Prospect Rankings & Analysis | Fantasy Baseball Risers and Fallers

Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Recommendations

Deep League Targets

C Ryan Jeffers – MIN

Ryan Jeffers has appeared in six of eight games since July 19 and in 10 of 12 since July 15. Over the last 15 days, Jeffers has a home run, five runs, four RBI, two steals, and a .409 AVG. He is up to five homers, 24 runs, 15 RBI, two steals, and a .277 AVG on the season. Here he is coming in clutch for the Twins with a walk-off hit.

Jeffers has earned his playing time with this performance, and much of what he has done appears to be sustainable. His 28% K rate is a bit high relative to the league but is better than his career average. He has a 29% chase rate, which matches what he did last season, and his 70% contact rate is just 2% lower than his career norm. The only wrinkle that could spell regression for his AVG is his BABIP.

Jeffers has a .392 BABIP compared to a .301 career BABIP, and while his line drive rate is better than his career LD%, it is marginal. He also has not pulled the ball as well as he did the last two seasons. Fantasy managers should expect to see a dip in his AVG over the rest of the season.

While his AVG likely will regress, his power production could improve. Jeffers’ barrel rate is just below league average, and his 44.3% HardHit rate is a career-best. He also has a 41% FB rate, which is close to last year’s total. His HR/FB rate is up from last year, though, but still under his career average. This could mean he outproduces his seven homers in 236 PAs from last season by a long shot.

Jeffers has seen increasing playing time recently and should continue to get time. His 135 wRC+ shows how good he has been at producing runs. Jeffers is absolutely worth a waiver wire add for the week ahead.

1B/3B Mike Moustakas – LAA

Mike Moustakas has made a resurgence this season after struggling to stay on the field for the last three years. He has nine home runs, 31 runs, 30 RBI, and a .258 AVG this season. Those are his highest totals in each category since 2019, his last full season. Here is his latest homer that also meant a lot for the history of the Angels:

Moustakas has perhaps shown some rust at the plate, with a career-high 26.4% strikeout rate. It has worsened for the fourth season in a row. His plate discipline data looks odd – Moose’s contact rate is down, but his chase rate improved a ton and is better than his career norm. This seems like something he could fix over the rest of the season as he continues to reacclimate himself to big-league pitching.

Moustakas’ .315 BABIP is about 50 points higher than his career average. Yet, he has career bests in line drive rate and groundball rate. He has pulled the ball well. He also has the second-highest HardHit rate of his career at 41.2%. Those factors support a high BABIP, and although his AVG may regress some, he should outproduce his .215-.220 AVG projections the rest of the way.

As long as Moose continues to get time, he is worth a waiver wire add in deep leagues.

2B/3B/SS Jon Berti – MIA

Jon Berti has been doing Jon Berti things for the Marlins this season. He has two home runs, but 38 runs, 19 RBI, 11 steals, and a .297 AVG. He is off his 41 SB pace from last season but should reach at least 20 steals. For perspective, only 18 players stole 20 bags in 2021, and just 24 had 20 or more in 2022.

Berti is a great option for those dealing with injuries to players like Esteury Ruiz or Thairo Estrada. While he is pacing for fewer steals than last season, he has increased his pace this month. After stealing one base in June, he is up to three steals in July.

Berti has improved other aspects of his game as well, lowering his strikeout rate to a career-best 18%. He lowered his groundball rate for the third season in a row. His 23% LD rate is his best since 2019. His chase rate, swinging strike rate, and contact rate all improved. In fact, his 82.9% contact rate is a career-best. Even though his season BABIP is 40 points higher than his career BABIP, these other factors support it. He could very well outproduce his .245-.245 AVG projections for the rest of the season.

Berti also has room to improve his home run total. While his flyball rate is down a bit from last season, it is still under his career average, as is his HR/FB rate this season. That could mean more homers are on the way. I mean, the man is picking up RBI this season too:

Berti is an interesting and widely available option that could help fantasy managers immensely. He should be a major waiver wire consideration for the week ahead.

OF Will Benson – CIN

Will Benson is likely the most available Reds outfielder aside from Nick Senzel in many fantasy leagues. This is despite playing nearly every day and producing in a deep lineup.

Benson has seven homers, 26 runs, 19 RBI, 10 steals, and a .282 AVG in 174 PAs. Check out his stats from his last seven games:

He has played in twice as many games as in his 2022 debut but has been significantly better. In a lineup featuring Elly De La Cruz, Jake Fraley, Matt McLain, and Spencer Steer, who have all been hot, Benson’s 139 wRC+ leads the team.

Benson likely will not continue to hit in the .280 range, but should still be very good. He has a decent 20% line drive rate but does not pull the ball much. That could prevent him from sustaining his high .370 BABIP. Despite that, many other aspects of his game look great and should help him keep producing.

He has a 36% GB rate and a 44% FB rate, which are both impressive. His 11% barrel rate and 35% HardHit rate, with a launch angle right in the sweet spot, should help him continue to keep balls in the air and off the ground.

Benson has seen the ball well this season, too. His 19.9% chase rate would tie Jack Suwinski for fourth-best in baseball if he qualified. And while his 76% contact rate is essentially league average, it is an improvement over Benson’s total from 2022.

Like many of the other young Reds players, Benson needs to be rostered more widely. If he is available on your waiver wire, you should consider adding him for this week.

SP Christopher Sanchez – PHI

Christopher Sanchez tossed four innings against Colorado in April, then did not pitch in the majors again until mid-June. In 38 IP since then, he has pitched to a 2.61 ERA with a 33:4 K:BB rate.

Sanchez is a bit off the radar, especially compared to his rotation mates like Zach Wheeler, Taijuan Walker, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez who are more widely rostered.

In 42.1 IP this season, Sanchez has an 8 K/9 rate and a 1.28 BB/9 rate. George Kirby is the only qualified pitcher that fits those parameters. Sanchez also has a 76% LOB rate and a 54.5% GB rate that would rank 19th and 4th respectively if he qualified.

Sanchez has a low .243 BABIP, likely buoying his 2.89 ERA, but a HR/FB rate of 18%, well above league average, should help mitigate regression to his ERA. His xFIP is 3.33 and his SIERA is 3.53, both still very good.

Sanchez tosses a sinker, changeup, and slider, and like last season, his changeup is his best pitch. It has a .137 batting average against, .196 xBAA, a 38.4% whiff rate, and a 26.7% pull rate. Here he is striking out Jeimer Candelario with a devastating changeup:

If he keeps leaning on it, he could be a big surprise this season.

Sanchez is interesting not just as a streamer, but a long-term waiver wire add, especially in deep leagues.

Shallow League Targets

C Luis Campusano – SD

Luis Campusano injured his thumb after seven games in April and did not return until July 19. Since then, he has appeared in seven of eight games, while batting .346 with a home run, four runs, and five RBI. He appears to have somewhat displaced Gary Sanchez, who has appeared in just five games since Campusano’s return. On the season, Campusano has two homers, seven runs, seven RBI, and a .296 AVG. Here’s his latest knock:

It is a small sample size of data, but Campusano has made some marked improvements from his previous stints in the majors. He has a 12% barrel rate and a 51% HardHit rate, both big jumps from last season. He has also driven and pulled the ball better while avoiding grounders. His 19% LD rate, 43% pull rate, and 34% GB rate all support his .308 BABIP.

Campusano has also impressed when it comes to plate discipline. He has just a 14% strikeout rate compared to Sanchez’s 23% K rate. Campusano also dropped his chase rate to 37% and improved his contact rate to 82% so far. Those are both better than his career averages.

Again, it is a small sample, but Campusano is trending in the right direction in important areas for success. If you need help at catcher, consider Campusano from the waiver wire.

3B Jeimer Candelario – WAS

Jeimer Candelario could potentially end up having a career year this season. He already has 16 homers, 52 runs, 55 RBI, five steals, and a .256 AVG. He projects to finish with career-bests in home runs, runs, and RBI. His five steals are already a career-high. He is also second in the NL in doubles:

What has Candelario done to perform so well this season? He has a career best 20% K rate driven by a career high 79% contact rate. As a team, the Nationals have the best contact rate in baseball, so the coaching staff has clearly had a positive effect on Candelario.

The veteran has a 20% LD rate and a 43% pull rate, both nearly identical to his career norms. This means his .291 BABIP (compared to his .297 career BABIP) looks legit and could even tick up a bit more. Candelario’s rest of season projections for his AVG predict him to continue to hit around .250, but he could potentially do better.

He has lowered his groundball rate this season to 37% – the second best rate of his career. His flyball rate is up as well thanks to an adjustment to his launch angle, which is at its highest since 2019. His HR/FB rate is up a bit over his career rate, but that comes with the territory when you hit more flies.

Candelario is a solid player having a good season, and is tremendously undervalued in fantasy. He should be a waiver wire priority for anyone in need of corner infield depth.

2B Trevor Story – BOS

Trevor Story has been working his way back from an internal bracing procedure in his elbow and has spent the last week and a few days making rehab appearances. He has looked good so far, playing for Boston’s AA and AAA affiliates. He has played shortstop in some of those games, rather than just serving as the designated hitter. Here he is on a recent rehab outing:

Story could be an important piece to a fantasy manager over the rest of the season. If he can adjust to pitching in the majors quickly enough, he possesses great value.

Story has been excellent over his career. In seven seasons, he finished with at least 20 homers in all but two seasons, one of which was in 2020. He also went 30/20 twice and 20/20 once, batting over .290 in the seasons with 30 home runs.

Last season, his first in Boston, he struggled with strikeouts. Story’s 30% K rate from last season was his highest since 2017. He had a career-high chase rate, and his contact rate was the second worst of his career. Perhaps those numbers improve in his second season with the Sox.

While he will not have enough time to go 20/20 for a fourth time in what will amount to likely a month and a half of baseball, Story projects to go at least 5/5/.250. That could very well help fantasy managers make a playoff push. Add him wherever he is available on the waiver wire.

OF Lars Nootbaar – STL

Offseason fantasy darling Lars Nootbaar has been on fire in July. This month, he has four homers, 21 runs, nine RBI, two steals, and a .298 AVG. For the season, he is up to 8/49/31/7/.268. He projects to have career bests in each category as long as he can stay on the field the rest of the way. He just launched this missile this week:

Noot’s walk and strikeout rates are nearly identical to his career average, but his BABIP is up about 50 points from his career norm to .330, and his AVG is about 20 points higher than his career norm. While his pull rate is a low 33%, Nootbaar has driven the ball more than in past seasons. He also lowered his chase rate to a career-best 21% and has a career-best 82% contact rate. While the BABIP is likely to drop, other factors like his line drive rate, chase rate, and contact rates should keep his AVG from falling off a cliff.

Nootbaar has an 8.5% barrel rate, which is just above league average, as is his 41% HardHit rate. Where he has struggled and needs to improve most, is in his launch angle. It sits at just four degrees, a major drop from his 10-degree LA from last season. Because of that, his GB rate is over 50% and his FB rate is under 30%. So, even though his HR/FB rate is a bit under his norm, he will not see an uptick in home runs unless he adjusts his swing to get more loft.

In spite of that, Noot has a lot of value as a player that should swipe double-digit bags, while also tallying double-digit homers. And he could do that with an AVG over .260. Nootbaar is definitely worth consideration from the waiver wire for the week ahead.

SP Kenta Maeda – MIN

Kenta Maeda’s unsavory 4.62 ERA looks ugly on the surface, but he has been trending in the right direction since late June, and now is the time to add him.

Maeda’s ERA ballooned to 9.00 after giving up 10 runs in 3 IP in April. After missing all of May and most of June with a triceps strain, Maeda has looked much better of late. In 32.2 IP since returning on June 23, Maeda allowed nine earned runs, giving him a 2.52 ERA since then. On the season, he has a 58:14 K:BB rate in 48.1 IP.

Maeda possesses a 10.7 K/9 rate and a 2.59 BB/9 rate, both improvements over last season. He has some work to do to improve his 66% LOB and 33% GB rates, but those are both partially due to a rough start to the season. They are also far below his career norms, so as the season goes on, those should improve.

Maeda should also see his .333 BABIP drop closer to his .283 career BABIP, especially since he has given up just a 17% LD rate (a career-best). A drop in BABIP could result in positive regression to his ERA when factored in with potential improvements to his LOB% and GB% as well.

Maeda’s slider and splitter have been working well for him so far this season. Both have a whiff rate over 30% and a putaway rate over 20%, while his fastball has a 26% whiff rate and a 27% putaway rate. Here is a look at his splitter from earlier this week:

Maeda has also started to pitch deeper into ball games recently. He has three quality starts in his last four games. He could be extra helpful to fantasy managers in leagues that value quality starts.

Do not worry about the ERA, and go add Maeda from the waiver wire now.

Other Players to Add from Waivers

Here are a few other players available in a range of league sizes that you should consider adding if they are on your waiver wire.

  • C: Henry Davis (OF), David Fry, Connor Wong, Yainer Diaz, Bo Naylor, Danny Jansen, Francisco Alvarez, Yan Gomes
  • CI: Triston Casas, Spencer Torkelson, Ryan O’Hearn (OF), Christian Encarnacion-Strand
  • MI: Nolan Gorman (3B), Ha-Seong Kim (3B), Wilmer Flores (1B/3B), CJ Abrams, Edouard Julien
  • OF: Alex Kirilloff (1B), Willi Castro (3B), Chas McCormick, Mickey Moniak, Bryan De La Cruz, Randal Grichuk, Travis Jankowski, Riley Greene, Max Kepler, James Outman
  • SP: Tanner Bibee, Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo, J.P. France, Kyle Hendricks, Johnny Cueto, Aaron Civale, Ben Lively, Logan Allen, Adrian Houser, Bryan Bello, Jose Quintana, Hyun Jin Ryu
  • RP: Jhoan Duran, Craig Kimbrel, Clay Holmes, Alex Lange, Adbert Alzolay, Pete Fairbanks, Kyle Finnegan, Trevor May, Kevin Ginkel, Will Smith, Justin Lawrence

Prospect Waiver Wire Watch

A number of prospects are worthy of consideration for waiver wire claims due to being called up or potentially being called up. Here are a few to consider adding.

  • OAK 2B Zack Gelof – three steals and a .225 AVG after 40 at-bats for OAK
  • PIT SP Quinn Priester – 10.2 IP, 11 ER, 9+ ERA so far
  • OAK 1B Tyler Soderstrom – struggling so far, .161 AVG with one RBI
  • CLE SP Gavin Williams – starting to look better, but pitched six IP or more in only two games
  • MIL OF Sal Frelick – incredible debut, has home run and .417 AVG in 12 at-bats
  • SF OF Luis Matos – finally hit a homer; batting .270
  • CIN SP Andrew Abbott – looks like an absolute stud

Fantrax was one of the fastest-growing fantasy sites over the last few years, and we’re not stopping now. We are the most customizable, easy-to-use, and feature-rich platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for your dynasty, keeper, redraft, and best ball leagues. Fantasy sports doesn’t sleep, and neither does Fantrax, with seasons running 365 days a year. Take your fantasy leagues to the next level now at Fantrax.com!
More fantasy goodness More from author
Leave A Reply

Your email address will not be published.