Every day we are closer and closer to the September 7 kickoff of the 2023 NFL Season. The end of August and the first weekend of September typically mean squeaking in your last few Fantasy Football drafts. Pre-season football has meant plenty of risers and fallers for fantasy Football due to more information received in the form of pre-season games, training camp news, transactions, and coach talk. The combination of these sources of information has certainly impacted Fantasy Football ADP (average draft position).
With a ton of leagues still drafting this or next weekend, I wanted to drop one last piece of prep that will identify my favorite Fantasy targets…from every single team. The list below consists of one player from each team that I want to roster the most in 2023. The reasons may consist of value at ADP and/or my personal ranking for the player this coming season, with optimism that they will benefit you getting that championship this year. Single QB Points per reception (PPR) leagues are the focus here
Team: Player – Overall ADP / Positional ADP
Top Fantasy Football Target from Every NFL Team
Arizona: Marquise Brown – Overall ADP – 85 / Positional ADP – WR35
2022 was a rollercoaster for Marquise “Hollywood” Brown in his first season with his former college quarterback Kyler Murray. In their final season at Oklahoma, Marquise Brown finished with 1,318 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns through 12 games with Kyler Murray. The college connection was evident through the first six weeks, as Hollywood ranked:
- #4 in targets (64)
- #5 in receptions (43)
- #7 in receiving yards (485)
- #5 in total Fantasy points (109.5)
- #7 in Fantasy PPG (18.3)
Unfortunately Hollywood ended up missing time, along with his quarterback, which truly impacted both of their seasons.
Flash forward to 2023, and it is still unclear what the timeline is for Kyler Murray’s return from his ACL injury. The Cardinals selected Michael Wilson in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft and also rostered wide receivers Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch. DeAndre Hopkins, who averaged 10.66 targets per game in Arizona last season, is now a Titan. It is very clear that Hollywood is this team’s #1 target.
Even with a questionable quarterback situation, Hollywood should still see consistently high volume. Through those previously mentioned first six weeks last season, Brown earned 10+ targets in four of those games. Many are projecting the Cardinals to be one of the worst teams this season, which should mean playing from behind and potentially having to chase them through the air. For a player who could be Top 12 in total targets in 2023, I am loving this WR35 price tag.
Atlanta: Drake London – Overall ADP – 67 / Positional ADP – WR26
The first wide receiver and eighth overall player off of the board in the 2022 NFL Draft, Drake London had an impressive rookie season for being on the second-lowest passing volume offense last year in Atlanta. London earned the 22nd most targets (117) and finished with 866 receiving yards through 17 games. This did not necessarily mean a major Fantasy season, only averaging 10.5 (#43) PPG across the year. London did have the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) amongst all wide receivers, which may be the most significant stat heading into 2023.
Former 2022 third-round selection Desmond Ridder is set to be the starter for Atlanta in 2023. Marcus Mariota played in 13 games for Atlanta last season throwing 30+ times just twice. Ridder played in four games and threw 30+ times in twice as well. This may be a sign of opening up the passing game more with Ridder in 2023. In those four games Ridder started, here were London’s numbers:
- Week 15: seven receptions (11 targets) for 70 receiving yards – 12 Fantasy points
- Week 16: seven receptions (nine targets) for 96 receiving yards – 14.6 Fantasy points
- Week 17: five receptions (eight targets) for 47 receiving yards – 9.7 Fantasy points
- Week 18: six receptions (eight targets) for 120 receiving yards – 18 fantasy points
London was a top-20 Fantasy wide receiver during this span with Desmond Ridder. This was produced without Kyle Pitts, but the QB-WR connection looked solid and can carry over into 2023. London is a candidate to see 120+ targets this coming season, and as a major talent in the league, this can certainly translate well for Fantasy purposes.
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson – Overall ADP – 34 / Positional ADP – QB4
Lamar Jackson’s current ADP is appropriately priced but far more appealing than those of Patrick Mahomes (15), Josh Allen (22), and Jalen Hurts (23). Why? Because Jackson has the same overall QB1 ceiling as these players, but at a cost of over 10 more draft spots than all of those players. Meaning you could draft and fill another position instead of Mahomes/Allen/Hurts then grab Jackson after.
Lamar Jackson opened up the 2022 season scoring over 40 Fantasy points and finishing as the overall QB1 in two of his first three weeks. Unfortunately, 2022 was the second season in a row where Jackson appeared in just 12 games. Extremely frustrating for Fantasy Football managers; especially seeing the 764/767 rushing numbers in those 12-game seasons.
Lamar Jackson is healthy heading into 2023, and there is a lot that looks bright for #8. Jackson received the bag this off-season after a long dispute with the Ravens. Baltimore brought in veteran Odell Beckham Jr., who has finished five seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards and is also now healthy. Zay Flowers was selected with the 22nd pick in this year’s NFL Draft to pair with 2021 first-round selection Rashod Bateman. JK Dobbins is further removed from his major injury, and Mark Andrews continues to be one of the league’s best tight ends.
Jackson has four straight seasons averaging over 20 Fantasy PPG, with one of the highest (if not THE highest) rushing ceilings for a quarterback in the league. Jackson also has, by far, the best set of weapons he has ever had in his career as well.
The Ravens hired Todd Monken as their new offensive coordinator. He has spoken of increasing the speed of play in Baltimore and passing more. There are far too many checkboxes here that do not just make Lamar Jackson a quarterback with major Fantasy upside, but also make him one of the most bust-proof picks you can make for the position.
Buffalo: Stefon Diggs – Overall ADP – 10 / Positional ADP – WR5
Another elite option listed, who I will again note is appropriately priced. Stefon Diggs is a great selection to make at the end of the first round in Fantasy drafts this year. Elite wide receiver tied to an elite quarterback who has had elite Fantasy production.
Stefon Diggs has played three seasons in Buffalo with Josh Allen, which have all meant being heavily targeted and productive.
- 2022: 110 receptions (155 targets) – 1,455 receiving yards – 11 receiving touchdowns – 18.9 Fantasy PPG (#6)
- 2021: 103 receptions (164 targets) – 1,225 receiving yards – 10 receiving touchdowns – 16.8 Fantasy PPG (#9)
- 2020: 127 receptions (166 targets) – 1,535 receiving yards – 8 touchdowns – 20.5 Fantasy PPG (#3)
Doing the math here – Stefon Diggs has consistently earned heavy targets, produced big receiving yards, and been a true Fantasy Football asset. He has shown the upside to be a 1,500+ receiving yard candidate, to be the league’s most targeted player, to score double-digit touchdowns, and to be a top three positional producer for Fantasy.
Dalton Kincaid was a first-round tight-end selection in this year’s draft, who has impressed Buffalo’s staff and should factor in. Other than the Kincaid add though, there were no significant adds to the Bills that would suggest a target or role impact on Stefon Diggs for 2023. Gabriel Davis, who I felt had a mediocre 2022, will continue to operate as the WR2. Buffalo’s offense will continue to throw often and be one of the better ones in the NFL. You are drafting Diggs at WR5, with the upside to be WR1.
Carolina: DJ Chark – Overall ADP – 182 / Positional ADP – WR65
2022 was yet another banged-up DJ Chark season, but he still managed four weeks of 14+ Fantasy points while in Detroit. The receiving yard upside we saw in the past, was flashed, with games of 98-94-108 yards. The issue again has consistently been the games played: 10-15-13-4-11 through his career. Back in 2019, Chark had a Fantasy breakout year, averaging 14.9 Fantasy PPG which ranked 19th for wide receivers. That season in Jacksonville he caught 73 of 117 targets for 1,008 receiving yards and eight touchdowns.
Flash forward to 2023, and Chark has a new home in Carolina. Knock on wood – he is healthy. Bryce Young, out of Alabama, was selected as the first overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He threw for 8,356 yards and 80 touchdowns during his college career.
Carolina also drafted Jonathan Mingo in the second round out of Ole Miss and brought in veteran Adam Thielen as well as tight end Hayden Hurst. Mingo’s adjustment to the NFL is unknown and Thielen has looked to be declining with age. The roles in Carolina, with a new rookie quarterback, are wide open. I am projecting Chark to be the leader in Fantasy points for this group.
At the end of the day, I am not projecting Chark to have this massive Top 12 season or anything over the top. If Chark delivers FLEX-worthy weeks on a semi-consistent level, he is well worth the draft pick as a player selected closer to 200 than 100 overall. We would be paying a WR65 price tag in drafts for a team’s WR1 for Fantasy scoring. I will take that all day.
Chicago: Justin Fields – Overall ADP – 46 / Positional ADP – QB7
Big Fantasy Football jump for Justin Fields in 2022, finishing as the QB6 overall and averaging the fifth most Fantasy PPG with 20.5. No quarterback rushed for more than his 1,143 yards in 2022, and Fields was second in rushing touchdowns with eight. Weeks 6-18, where the playbook in Chicago seemed to be very Fields-focused, he averaged a hefty 24.8 Fantasy PPG.
Fields has consistently been critiqued as a passer, mostly tied to Chicago having the lowest passing volume in 2022. The context is easy for this though:
- Eight one-score games – did not need to chase games through the air
- Mediocre wide receiver core. Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool injuries left the likes of Dante Pettis and Equanimeous St. Brown as top options
- Terrible offensive line
Much has changed for Fields in the off-season. The first overall pick ended up being traded in a deal that included former first-round selection DJ Moore in the package. Moore, who has finished with over 1,100 receiving yards in three of his last four seasons with mediocre quarterback play, will operate as Fields’ WR1. The Bears addressed their offensive line, added more depth at the running back position, and should have a healthy trio of Mooney, Claypool, and Cole Kmet.
Last season, Justin Fields exploded for Fantasy Football, finishing top five in five weeks, and as the QB1 overall twice. Fields is being drafted as the QB7, after a QB6 finish, and after major improvements to his situation. This does not add up for me.
Fields finished his college career at Ohio State with 5,701 passing yards and 67 passing touchdowns and was once regarded as a good passer. Fields brings some of the highest dual-threat traits that will translate (as we have seen) to elite Fantasy production very well. Sneaky candidate to finish this season as the number one Fantasy Football quarterback, at a price outside the top 45 picks in drafts.
Cincinnati: Ja’Marr Chase – Overall ADP – 3 / Positional ADP – WR2
Ja’Marr Chase is my 1.01 for this season, so with him not being drafted as this I have to plug him. You can check the details on why here.
Cleveland: Elijah Moore – Overall ADP – 145 / Positional ADP – WR53
Coming out of Ole Miss, I was a big fan of Elijah Moore as a prospect. In his final college season, Moore averaged 10.75 receptions, 157.13 total yards, and a touchdown per game which led to him being selected by the New York Jets in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Rookie season, Moore scored 20+ Fantasy points across three different weeks with four different Jets quarterbacks. Weeks 7-13, he was the WR3 overall in Fantasy scoring where he averaged 17.7 PPG during that explosion. All seemed great heading into 2022, but it ended up being the year he fell out with the Jets organization.
2023 means a chance at a fresh start for Moore in Cleveland. The fresh start is most appealing due to his tie now to Deshaun Watson, who has had two seasons of 4,100 passing yards. Amari Cooper should operate as the team’s WR1, but the WR2 role looks to be much in Moore’s favor over the likes of Donovan Peoples-Jones or rookie Cedric Tillman. Camp clips and coach talk have been extremely encouraging for Moore.
As a believer in the talent, I pair that with his newfound opportunity with the Browns. Historically the Browns have been a run-first offense, but this offense is looking to open up the passing game with a full Watson season. Consistency in volume can mean Moore being a reliable Fantasy Football FLEX in 2023. The WR53 draft position is far too low for what the production can be.
Dallas: CeeDee Lamb – Overall ADP – 11 / Positional ADP – WR6
CeeDee Lamb, as mentioned with Stefon Diggs, is an excellent end-of-the-first-round pick for 2023. Lamb has improved in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and Fantasy PPG across each of his NFL seasons. 2022 was Lamb’s true breakout year, averaging 17.7 Fantasy PPG which was the seventh-highest for the position. Lamb was Top five in targets (156), receptions (107) and total touchdowns (9) last season. Why is this so impressive? Dak Prescott only played in 12 games for these numbers to hit.
CeeDee Lamb has caught 178 passes and finished with 2,402 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in 32 games with Dak Prescott. Back in 2021, Dak averaged a heavy 37.3 passing attempts per game and is a 2023 candidate for 4,000+ passing yards. The volume and opportunity through the air are clearly there in Dallas. Brandin Cooks was added following the Dalton Schultz departure, which I believe is a good thing for Lamb to both have a veteran presence to learn from as well as keep defenses honest.
For 2023, I believe Lamb is a sneaky candidate to finish as the overall WR1 for Fantasy Football. I have him ranked above consensus, and feel he can have a massive year. If the trend continues for improvement across all statistics, Lamb can be a major asset for championship teams this coming season. Consistent volume and upside attached to a great offense is exactly the pick you would want at the end of the first round for drafts this season.
Denver: Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP – 53 / Positional ADP – WR23
Most people that know me as a content creator, likely tie a love for Jerry Jeudy to my name. Jeudy is a player I have spoken of numerous times that has the upside and opportunity to be a top 12 Fantasy wide receiver in 2023. I really liked Jeudy as a prospect, who finished his Alabama career with 2,743 scrimmage yards and 26 touchdowns which resulted in first-round 2020 NFL Draft capital. In his rookie season, Jeudy earned 113 targets and was top seven for the position in both deep targets and air yards. Sophomore season Jeudy played much more in the slot (256 slot snaps in 10 games), which shows the diversity of where he can be lined up and how he can be utilized.
2022 was a big year for Jeudy, finishing 19th for the position in Fantasy PPG (13.6). Jeudy was on fire the last seven games that he played 50%+ of the snaps, averaging 19.37 Fantasy PPG during that stretch. Jeudy finished the year #12 in deep targets, #22 in receiving yards (972), #16 in yards after the catch and #9 in yards per target. Those metrics show an appealing combination of playmaking and efficiency.
Denver picked up Jeudy’s fifth-year option this off-season. Sean Payton was also hired as the Head Coach, who has had a history of successful wide receivers such as Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, and Brandin Cooks. 2023 is the hopeful bounce-back of Russell Wilson, who has had four seasons of 4,000+ passing yards and five seasons over 30 passing touchdowns. The versatile use and playmaking plus the coaching hire plus the quarterback play for me can result in a major 2023 season for Jerry Jeudy. Top 12 upside pick for a guy being drafted almost double that for the position.
Detroit: Amon-Ra St. Brown – Overall ADP – 19 / Positional ADP – WR10
One of the biggest pre-2022 debates for Fantasy Football was Amon-Ra St. Brown (ARSB). It seemed you either loved him or were out on him. This followed his rookie season explosion where he scored the second most total Fantasy points (25.2 PPG average) in Weeks 13-18. Last season, ARSB proved the doubters wrong earning 146 targets, catching 106 of them for 1,161 yards, and was a monster after the catch (fourth amongst wide receivers). Finishing inside the top 10 in the listed categories resulted in 16.7 Fantasy PPG, which was also top 10 for wide receivers.
For 2023, Jameson Williams is suspended for the first six games. Detroit spent a first-round draft pick on Jahymyr Gibbs out of Alabama, second-round draft pick on Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, as well as brought back veteran Marvin Jones Jr. Other receivers on the roster include Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond. It is apparent, that ARSB will not have much target competition in Detroit for a good chunk of the season. Following a solid Jared Goff 2022 campaign, the connection that was established should carry over to 2023.
I expect St. Brown to have a massive target share in 2023. 2022 was the year he proved the doubters wrong, and I do not believe it ends there. Major target volume, big numbers after the catch, tearing up camp, chip-on-the-shoulder motivation… this is a sneaky candidate to finish as this year’s overall WR1. St. Brown might just be the best possible pick in the second round of drafts this year.
Green Bay: Aaron Jones – Overall ADP – 38 / Positional ADP – RB15
Aaron Jones was an easy mention in a recent article talking about running backs being drafted outside the top 15 for Fantasy Football that could finish inside the Top 12. Especially after having a career season in 2022 in both rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59). This is a guy who has been a top-12 running back in Fantasy PPG for four straight seasons, with half of those seasons being inside the top five. The dual-threat ability is evident in Jones, with him finishing three of his last four seasons at over 1,000 yards on the ground, as well as back-to-back seasons over 50 receptions. Throughout Jones’ career, he has also averaged 5.3-5.5 yards per carry in four of his six seasons played as well as had three seasons of double-digit touchdown scoring.
Aaron Rodgers is now a Jet, which leaves Jordan Love the keys to the starting quarterback job. AJ Dillon has had back-to-back seasons of 186/187 rushing attempts, which takes away total volume but still has never resulted in Aaron Jones not eating. Jayden Reed and Luke Musgrave were both drafted in the first round of this year’s draft to pair with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, but this in all honesty is not the most elite set of weapons at least known.
2023 should feature Jones in a similar role as he was in 2022, with use on the ground and through the air. I do not see any signs of slowing down as Jones is a few months from 29 years old, seeing those career numbers from last year. For a first-year starter, I feel there will be plenty of times when the safe option is a dump-off to his veteran running back as well. When looking for value in drafts, I feel Jones is an easy one who can certainly out-produce his RB15 tag as he has so consistently in the last few years.
Houston: Dalton Schultz – Overall ADP – 113 / Positional ADP – TE11
In the 2023 NFL Draft, CJ Stroud was selected by Houston as the second player off the board who threw for 8,123 yards and 85 touchdowns at Ohio State. Brandin Cooks is now a Cowboys, and Houston added veterans Robert Woods and Dalton Schultz to the roster. Noah Brown also was added through free agency and the Texans drafted both Tank Dell (round three) and Xavier Hutchinson (round 6). Former 2022 second-round selection John Metchie III returns from missing the entire 2022 season. Devin Singletary was added to the roster to complement sophomore Dameon Pierce. Nico Collins enters year three with optimism from the community. Sparknote version – new rookie quarterback with a lot of moving pieces in Houston with no clearly defined roles.
Dalton Schultz has been a top 10 Fantasy tight end in PPG for back-to-back seasons back in his time with the Cowboys. In 2022, he missed a little bit of time and was banged up but still earned 89 targets and produced 577 receiving yards. 2021 was his biggest season, with Schultz earning 104 targets (#6 for tight ends), catching 78 of them (#3), producing 808 receiving yards (#6), and scoring eight touchdowns (#5). In 2020 he also earned 89 targets and produced 615 receiving yards.
Schultz has consistently earned targets the last three seasons and has shown us upsides after the catch, in total yardage and scoring both touchdowns and Fantasy points. In 2021 he finished fifth in Fantasy PPG. It may be a hot take here, but I think there is a true chance Schultz is Stroud’s #1 target in 2023. That is a rarity for a tight end to be the #1 option, but when it does happen we see major Fantasy production when looking historically at guys like Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. Out of a group of unknowns, the reliable tight end target may be the most reliable target at the end of the day. Being able to draft Schultz after pick 110 is huge if he hits this year, as you can fill the rest of your roster up until that point. We want consistent volume for our Fantasy tight ends, and that can be the case for Schultz who has shown us plenty of positives the last three seasons.
Indianapolis: Anthony Richardson – Overall ADP – 114 / Positional ADP – QB14
The Colts selected Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Richardson ran a 4.42 – 40 at the combine and had arguably the most athletic quarterback combine performance of all time. Richardson was drafted out of Florida, where he threw for 2,549 yards and 17 touchdowns last season with a 131 QB rating. Richardson raised eyebrows by what he did on the ground, rushing for 654 yards and nine touchdowns. This is a quarterback with major physical traits, dual-threat upside, and downfield arm strength.
I wrote a piece for Fantrax that detailed why you should draft mobile quarterbacks for Fantasy Football. In this article, I looked at the Fantasy Football ties to quarterbacks who ran for 300+ and 500+ yards from 2018-2022. Quarterbacks who ran for 500+ yards averaged an 11.6 overall Fantasy finish for the position and 19.5 Fantasy PPG. Anthony Richardson is a quarterback who projects to hit 500+ yards on the ground.
Richardson has his alpha wide receiver in Michael Pittman Jr. to pair with former 2022 second-round selection Alec Pierce and 2023 third-round pick Josh Downs. This is not the worst trio to land with. The big question is the future of Jonathan Taylor, who was just allowed this week to seek a trade. I would prefer Taylor on the Colts when wanting the best for Richardson, as I believe Taylor would keep defenses honest and not completely focused on making Richardson throw. I am not going to completely fade Richardson if Taylor is traded, but it certainly can have an impact. Regardless, we have a true upside quarterback here in Richardson being drafted as the QB14 that can pay off if you wait on quarterback this year.
Jacksonville: Calvin Ridley – Overall ADP – 37 / Positional ADP – WR16
The last time Calvin Ridley played an NFL game was back in October of 2021. A gambling suspension meant missing all of last season in Atlanta. This off-season, Ridley lands on a Jacksonville offense that scored the 10th most total points last season. Many have mentioned Ridley potentially being rusty, but my response has always been that you do not forget skill at the end of the day. Positive camp clips and reports have supported my statement.
In 2020, Ridley had a career year earning 143 targets, catching 90 of them for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. Ridley’s 18.8 Fantasy PPG ranked 4th amongst wide receivers. Ridley was a former first-round selection (26th overall in 2018) who has consistently earned targets (92-93-143) through his first three seasons. We have seen the upside in all of the volume, receiving yards, touchdowns, and Fantasy production.
Trevor Lawrence took significant steps forward in 2022, finishing with over 4,000 passing yards and more than doubling his touchdowns. Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones were all Fantasy significant last season. Looking at this core of receiving options though, for me it is clear that Ridley is the alpha. Kirk, Engram, and Jones still should be important pieces of this offense but none have the resume Ridley does at the end of the day or the skillset. Ridley is a wide receiver who has the clear upside to finish top 12 in 2023, at the cost of WR16. I am all-in on the bounce-back.
Kansas City: Jerick McKinnon – Overall ADP – 120 / Positional ADP – RB39
This selection may come as a surprise, but there are just so many questions about the Fantasy Football options in Kansas City for 2023. Do we NEED to select Patrick Mahomes and/or Travis Kelce as high as they go in drafts – or can we wait and grab someone cheaper? Who will emerge from the young guns in Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Rashee Rice? Does Isiah Pacheco keep his role or can Clyde Edwards-Helaire fight for the rushing job back? In a room full of Chiefs questions, I think I will take my stab at the super cheap option that had a significant role in 2022 and was brought back for 2023.
Jerick McKinnon ranked fourth for Kansas City in targets last season with 71, which was top 10 for running backs. McKinnon’s career-high 56 receptions ranked ninth, and 512 receiving yards ranked fourth for the position. Highly efficient with his work, McKinnon’s 6.3 yards per touch was the fourth best among all running backs. Double-digit touchdowns was simply icing on the cake.
After finishing 26th in Fantasy PPG with 11.6, taking a stab at being a top 20 running back again for 2023 at an RB39 cost is one I am willing to take. Kansas City brought McKinnon back after a solid year due to his usefulness to the team. Should McKinnon continue to see volume through the air from Mahomes and be a threat to score I feel he is a great late-round running back to target in PPR leagues this season.
Los Angeles: Keenan Allen – Overall ADP – 43 / Positional ADP – WR19
The cost in drafts right now for Keenan Allen must be tied to him being 31 years old and missing games last season. I recently made a video about Allen being a value, and a comment came in saying something about “always missing time”. 2022 (10 games) was the first time Allen missed significant time since… 2016.
Looking specifically at Allen’s 2022 season, across his final seven healthy games he averaged 10.71 targets, 7.86 receptions, 83 receiving yards, .57 touchdowns, and 19.7 Fantasy points. Those numbers are not just good, they are great. Allen has been a top 12 wide receiver in Fantasy PPG for four straight seasons, and six times across his career. Allen has consistently earned heavy targets, with three seasons over 150 targets, and 157 with Justin Herbert back in 2021. Four seasons as well with 1,100+ receiving yards. Fantasy football producer.
Justin Herbert has ranked second in back-to-back seasons for passing attempts. The volume is absolutely there for the Chargers. Quentin Johnston was drafted in the first round this year, and may factor in, but plays a similar role as Mike Williams and would impact him more than Allen. The connection with Herbert has been evident since 2020, which has translated directly to Fantasy football. If we can project Allen to see 140+ targets in 2023, WR19 likely does not make sense.
Los Angeles: Tyler Higbee – Overall ADP – 136 / Positional ADP – TE14
2022 was a rough year for the LA Rams following their Super Bowl win, with the likes of both Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford missing significant time and losing more games than they expected. For Tyler Higbee though, it was a career year in targets (108) and receptions (72) with him having the fourth highest target share (20.9%) for the tight end position. Higbee led all tight ends in deep targets for the season, was top 10 in receiving yards (620) and he ran the third most routes. This did not necessarily translate as amazing for Fantasy Football with a 15th finish in Fantasy PPG, but one would expect his ceiling to be limited playing without his starting quarterback for a chunk of the year.
For 2023, both Stafford and Kupp are hoping to have healthy seasons. The Rams’ receiving options outside of Kupp consist of Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Demarcus Robinson, Ben Skowronek, and rookie camp hero Puka Nacua. This is a very, very mediocre group with no clear-cut second target option for Stafford. What does this mean? We can see Higbee once again being a top target for 2023.
When it comes to what I look for from my Fantasy Football tight ends, the number one thing for me is consistent volume. I do not want to chase touchdowns or big plays. Consistent volume is key for PPR leagues. Higbee is a candidate to see 80-100 targets in 2023, which can easily translate better for Fantasy Football in 2023 due to having his actual starting quarterback. If I am fading tight end in drafts this year, a TE14 price tag at a pick beyond 120 seems appealing for a top 12 candidate.
Las Vegas: Josh Jacobs – Overall ADP – 21 / Positional ADP – RB9
There has been plenty of speculation for Josh Jacobs this off-season, with internal issues regarding financials for the league’s leading rusher from last season. A recent report stated that Jacobs is expected to be back by week one, which even if it is definitive it is encouraging. The uncertainty if Jacobs will or will not holdout has impacted where he is going in drafts this season.
Jacobs is coming off of a monster year, rushing for a career-best 1,653 yards and pairing that with 53 receptions for another career-high of 400 receiving yards. 12 total touchdowns matched his 2020 total. 19.3 Fantasy PPG was a career-high as well, which ranked third highest for the position. Prior to 2022, the highest carry total for Jacobs was 273 (2020), but he smashed that with 340 attempts in 2022. Massive workload + major production resulted in being one of the best picks you could have made in your Fantasy drafts last season based on cost.
I am projecting Jacobs to be ready to roll in Week 1. If we hear negative news regarding this topic, then we need to improvise and pivot our takes as we should always be doing for this game. RB9 after that sort of explosion in 2022 has to be tied to question marks, right? The lateral quarterback change from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo should not impact Jacobs. No running backs were added to the Raiders that would take away Jacobs’ volume. Jacobs has been heavily involved in the passing game the last two seasons. We love volume for Fantasy running backs, and he is guaranteed that for 2023. I will jump on the dip in his draft cost all day if it means grabbing Jacobs at the end of the second round.
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa – Overall ADP – 87 / Positional ADP – QB11
Last season was disappointing for Tua Tagovailoa, not due to his play, but due to the multiple concussions that limited him to 13 games. Tua averaged the ninth most Fantasy PPG for the position last year, at 18.4. In 30.77% of Tua’s games played he finished with 300+ passing yards. Of QBs who played 10+ games, only Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen had a higher percentage. Tua also threw 3+ passing TDs in 30.77% of his games played. Only Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott had a higher percentage. Tua’s QBR ranked third (68.5) and his accuracy metrics were off the charts.
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are one of the best wide receiver pairs in the league due to their explosiveness. One of the best attributes that Hill and Waddle bring to Miami is what they do after the catch, with both wide receivers ranking top 10 for the category in 2022. This raises both the floor and ceiling for Tua, gaining all of those yards to his passing numbers after the catch. An accurate and competent quarterback getting the ball into his dynamic playmakers’ hands has translated well for Fantasy Football.
Within my most recent rankings, I had Tua as my QB10 which is close to his ADP. The upside in the passing yardage and passing touchdown categories was on display in 2022. The concussions have been a concern, but at the end of the day any quarterback is at risk and I do not want to draft in fear. 25 touchdowns last season through 13 games makes Tua an easy candidate to hit 30+ in 2023. 3,548 passing yards in 13 makes Tua an easy candidate for 4,000+ yards as well. If I do not want to spend a high draft pick on a quarterback this year and address other positions, then Tua is a great target for 2023.
Minnesota: Jordan Addison – Overall ADP – 94 / Positional ADP – WR39
The Vikings selected Jordan Addison in the first round this year at pick 23 out of USC. Addison had a massive college season back in 2021 at Pit (before his USC transfer), where he caught 100 passes for 1,593 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. That explosion of a season resulted in Addison winning the Biletnikoff Award. In 2022, Addison finished his college career with 875 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. Addison is regarded as a player who can operate at all three levels, has plus route-running, run after the catch upside, and has that major season under his belt.
Adam Thielen is now in Carolina, which opened up the WR2 role for Addison. Theilen was targeted 6.3 times per game in 2022. Justin Jefferson should continue to be one of the most, if not the most targeted wide receiver in the league. TJ Hockenson came in last year and also was heavily targeted by Kirk Cousins. What is encouraging for the Vikings is the 643 passing attempts from Cousins, which should not regress a ton seeing as though Dalvin Cook is out of the backfield.
Addison can see immediate volume in his rookie season, and have a consistent role within a good offense. I am a big fan of the talent and felt he was the second-best wide receiver in this year’s draft class behind only Jaxon Smith-Nijigba. Close to pick 94, I feel Addison is a sleeper this season that can return weekly FLEX value for lineups.
New England: JuJu Smith-Schuster – Overall ADP – 103 / Positional ADP – WR44
JuJu Smith-Schuster lands in New England this off-season, after reaching a three-year deal. Last season in Kansas City, JuJu earned 101 targets, caught 78 of them from Patrick Mahomes, and finished with 933 receiving yards. Just three touchdowns from Mahomes was disappointing through 16 games, and JuJu finished WR35 in Fantasy PPG with 11.6. JuJu had the best two seasons of his career, in his first two seasons, which was back in Pittsburgh. Rookie season in 2017 he ranked 16th in Fantasy PPG. JuJu followed up his rookie campaign with a massive 1,426 receiving yard season that resulted in averaging the ninth most Fantasy PPG (18.4). The expectations following that big 2018 season, truly have never been met up through today.
The opportunity in New England is appealing to me, due to where JuJu is going in drafts. I am never going to project him to get back to his 2018 numbers, or to have a massive Fantasy season, but I am projecting volume. DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and Tyquan Thornton make up a very mediocre wide receiver room. It is evident that JuJu will be the WR1 – the alpha. Being Mac Jones’ number one target should mean seeing 110+ targets. Having a decent target share and seeing consistent volume can mean being a weekly FLEX option in PPR leagues which makes JuJu a value at WR44.
New Orleans: Chris Olave – Overall ADP – 26 / Positional ADP – WR13
Chris Olave was selected 11th overall by New Orleans in 2022, and impressed with 119 targets (#20), 72 receptions (#26), 1,042 receiving yards (#17), and 13.2 fantasy PPG (#25). Olave commanded a 26.7% target share (#15) and was a big-play threat, as evident by his 1,670 air yards (#8), 14 aDot (#9), and 29 deep targets (#4). Olave ranked 10th for the position in yards per route run (#10).
Olave enters year two in the league, with a QB upgrade from primarily Andy Dalton to Derek Carr. Carr had a down 2022 season, but threw for over 4,000 passing yards in the four straight seasons prior. Carr ranked 5th for the QB position in deep ball attempts (72) and 5th in air yards (4,701) which looks to align with the numbers in those categories previously spoken for with Olave. WR who was a deep threat in 2022, gets a QB who likes to throw deep for 2023. Michael Thomas will be back for 2023, but he has only played in 10 games across the last two seasons combined. Even with Thomas, I believe Olave commands a high target share again and will connect on even more big plays for 2023 with the hopeful bump in the TD category (4) from last season.
A deep threat paired with a quarterback that goes deep adds up well for me. The talent is absolutely there. Olave is a candidate to hit 130+ targets and finish with 1,100+ receiving yards and the touchdowns can certainly go up in 2023 as well. The early third round is a great spot if he falls to grab Olave, who can easily finish as a Top 12 wide receiver for Fantasy this year.
New York: Darren Waller – Overall ADP – 54 / Positional ADP – TE5
The last two seasons have been very disappointing for Darren Waller, who has played in just 20 total games across them. Back in 2020, Waller had a career year earning 145 targets, catching 107 of them, and finishing with 1,196 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. This major season resulted in a not-very tight end common 17.4 Fantasy PPG. Waller has had two seasons of 1,100 receiving yards under his belt and has been top five for the position twice in Fantasy PPG.
Waller has a huge opportunity in New York with Daniel Jones, who took major steps in year one under first-year Head Coach Brian Daboll last season. Looking at the group of Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton, Parris Campbell, rookie Jalin Hyatt, Wan’Dale Robinson, and Sterling Shepard it is evident that there are no clear-cut options in this offense. I truly like Wan’Dale Robinson, but off of a big injury brings skepticism. At the end of the day, Waller is the Giant’s version of what Travis Kelce is to the Chiefs.
An argument can be made that Waller should see top-three targets in 2023. The athleticism has been on display throughout his career, he has shown receiving yard upside and major Fantasy production. The asterisk people will continuously bring up is health. If we can guarantee a healthy world at the end of the day, there is no reason to not lock in Waller as a top-three Fantasy option for the position in 2023. If we do not want to pay the premium draft price of Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, or TJ Hockenson, then your go-to should be Waller. Especially seeing that I have him ranked as my TE2.
New York: Garrett Wilson – Overall ADP – 18 / Positional ADP – WR9
The 10th overall draft pick from last year’s class has been one of the hottest Fantasy Football names this off-season, which is well warranted. Garrett Wilson’s 147 targets ranked sixth, 1,103 receiving yards ranked 14th, and 12.7 Fantasy PPG ranked 30th for the position as a rookie. This is very impressive, seeing as though Wilson had a mix of Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, and Chris Strevelar at quarterback last season. Wilson’s playmaking was on full display, ranking top 20 in yards after the catch and racking up those total yardage despite being in a shaky situation.
Flash forward to 2023, and the Jets make a move to bring in Aaron Rodgers. 10 seasons of over 4,000 passing yards and three seasons of 40+ passing touchdowns for the former multi-winning MVP. The four touchdowns scored for Wilson last year, could climb up to double-digits in 2023. It would not be fair to say Garrett Wilson is Davante Adams, but it is fair to say that Garrett Wilson is Aaron Rodgers’ new Davante Adams. Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, and Mecole Hardman are compliment pieces at the end of the day to the Jets’ alpha.
Wilson should operate with a heavy target share in 2023 and should be a top-targeted wide receiver. Seeing the upside Wilson put on display with a group of mediocre quarterbacks makes you think that attached to a quality veteran in Rodgers can be a major breakout season. Wilson is a sneaky candidate to finish as the overall WR1 this year for Fantasy. Wilson is one of the best options to draft in the second round this year and should be targeted universally by managers.
Philadelphia: D’Andre Swift (RB) – Overall ADP – 69 / Positional ADP – RB27
People that have followed my content, likely know my love for D’Andre Swift as a talent. I do understand the injury history, and understand the polarizing reports we have often seen coming out of the Eagles camps with who has what role in that backfield between Swift, Kenneth Gainwell, and Rashaad Penny.
I took the data to Excel this off-season and looked at all of the games Swift played 50%+ of the snaps. In those games, he has averaged a solid 16.54 Fantasy points. In terms of Fantasy PPG in general he averaged 13.7 in 2022 (#15), 16.1 in 2021 (#8), and 14.6 in 2020 (#15). Swift ranked #2 in yards per touch for 2022, #5 and #6 in 2022 and 2020 in yards per route run, #10 and #11 in 2022 and 2020 in yards per reception, #5 for 2021 in yards created, and has averaged 5.5-4.1-4.6 yards per carry the last three seasons.
The falling out with the Lions, resulting in landing with one of the best offenses in the league which just happens to be Swift’s hometown, is very storybook-like. The Eagles scored the second most points in 2022, a year they went to the Super Bowl. 259 rushing attempts were vacated by Miles Sanders (Carolina now), and there were 61 running back specific targets last year. Looking at the backfield that I mentioned before, Swift is the clear-cut best all-around talent.
The camp clips of Jalen Hurts dumping it off to Swift have me hyped. Many will reference the Eagles not being a team that use their running backs in the passing game but I can argue that they have not recently had a pass-catching talent like Swift. A highly efficient and productive pass-catching running back with a dynamic skillset within one of the league’s best offenses just screams Fantasy success.
Pittsburgh: Diontae Johnson (WR) – Overall ADP – 79 / Positional ADP – WR32
Diontae Johnson’s 2022 was a major disappointment after a great 2021. In 2022 he ranked sixth in targets (147), but the production did not match up, with him averaging 10.9 fantasy PPG (39th), being outside the top 20 in receiving yards (882), and scoring 0 TDs. The Steelers’ offense only generated 12 passing TDs and Diontae Johnson’s target accuracy ranked #55 for WRs, which were big factors. In 2021, he scored 17.2 fantasy PPG (#8), earned 169 targets, caught 107 balls, racked up 1,161 receiving yards, and scored eight TDs. Johnson was all Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde changing from Ben Roethlisberger to Kenny Pickett.
Johnson has been a Top 12 WR in total route wins the last two seasons, and has been highly touted for his ability to get open. I am a believer that targets are earned, and Diontae Johnson has earned 147-169-144-92 since entering the league. I expect PIT’s offense to take a step forward in 2023 in Kenny Pickett’s second season, and Diontae Johnson to continue to have a consistently high target volume.
I am optimistic that Diontae Johnson will bounce back for 2023 due to getting back to scoring TDs and hopefully seeing a similar receiving yard season to 2021 than to 2022. With the rate Johnson has been consistently targeted, being the 32nd wide receiver off the board simply does not make sense if the situation just slightly improves in 2023. George Pickens may develop, Pat Freiermuth has continued to take steps forward as a young tight end and Allen Robinson is looking to turn his career around but Johnson is who you want for Fantasy Football at the end of the day.
Seattle: Geno Smith (QB) – Overall ADP – 116 / Positional ADP – QB16
I have said it before and I will say this…probably forever… Geno Smith’s “They wrote me off, I ain’t write back though” was the best sports quote of 2022 and maybe one of the best ever. Geno Smith played just 14 total games from 2015 to 2021 before playing a full 17 last season. Those 17 resulted in a career season. Smith finished the year top 10 for the position in all of passing attempts (572), passing yards (4,282), yards per attempt (7.5), QBR (61.6), passing touchdowns (30), rushing yards (366) and Fantasy PPG (18.5). You can easily argue Geno Smith was the biggest value pick of all positions for fantasy Football last year.
2022’s big season meant Geno Smith getting paid. A great sign that the organization is behind him. Following a season that DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett both produced over 1,000 yards through the air, Seattle went and drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) in the first round to add to this core. JSN is an elite talent that may just be the most talented receiver in the room day one. Seattle also drafted dual-threat running back Zach Charbonnet to pair with last year’s 1,000-yard rusher Kenneth Walker III. A system that already had some great weapons for Geno just got better this off-season.
Geno Smith has been a tough quarterback for me to rank. You often ask yourself – if this guy was top 10 last season and his situation just got a lot better, what would hold him back from being top 10 yet again? Smith may not win you your Fantasy weeks, but I feel he will bring stability to lineups and be a consistent producer. The QB16 ADP means you can fade quarterback, fill other positions, and take Smith as a later-round guy in your drafts.
San Francisco: Brandon Aiyuk – Overall ADP – 735 / Positional ADP – WR29
Brandon Aiyuk is a prime example of a guy I was not super into for Fantasy in the past, but have really come around on when looking deeper. Rookie season Aiyuk earned 96 targets, caught 6o of them for 748 yards, and finished #18 in Fantasy PPG for the position with 15.4. In 2021 he earned 85 targets but had a down year in Fantasy production with just 10 PPG. 2022 was a turning point in Aiyuk’s usage, as he earned 113 targets which was the most for the 49ers. Deebo Samuel did miss time last year, but earning those targets means a lot to me. So does finishing with 1,015 receiving yards.
The big question when looking at all of the 49ers’ options is – who will be the starting quarterback? Brock Purdy likely has the keys right now, but both Trey Lance and Sam Darnold are appealing in their own ways. I am projecting that whoever is the starter, will not have that role for the full duration of the season. It would not shock me if all three of these guys played at least one game. The system is made up of some solid weapons regardless outside of Aiyuk and Deebo, with running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle who are both highly regarded for their individual positions.
113 targets and 1,1015 receiving yards was a great step for Aiyuk in his career, and I believe he can continue to trend up. The former first-round talent may just be the top targeted option in 2023 by whoever the quarterback is. Finishing as WR18 and WR23 in 2020 and 2022 in Fantasy PPG just makes his ADP of WR29 look wrong. I would be very in on plugging Aiyuk into my FLEX position weekly for 2023.
Tamp Bay: Rachaad White (RB) – Overall ADP – 65 / Positional ADP – RB25
Selected in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, Rachaad White worked his way into some solid touches for having Leonard Fournette on the roster. Fournette finished with a massive 73 receptions, but White caught 50 himself which was top 12 for running backs. White finished top 15 for the position in Weeks 12 (19.9 fantasy points), 13 (16.9 points), and 16 (15.3 points) last season.
Leonard Fournette is not set to return to Tampa Bay, so it looks like White is their RB1. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Chase Edmonds and Sean Tucker (rookie) may factor in for work, but seeing White’s upside in the receiving department along with the opportunity for consistent touches on the ground make him intriguing for 2023. Even if this Tampa Bay offense will look much different under Baker Mayfield than it did with Tom Brady.
We love pass-catching running backs for PPR leagues. We love running backs who get consistent touches for Fantasy Football in general. White fits in both of these categories, which makes him appealing as someone you can draft after the first 60 picks typically. If you go heavy with wide receivers early on in your draft, White can be a good target later on pending there are no other running backs added in Tampa.
Tennessee: DeAndre Hopkins (WR) – Overall ADP – 50 / Positional ADP – WR20
I spoke about DeAndre Hopkins in a recent Fantrax article that you can check out here.
Washington: Jahan Dotson (WR) – Overall ADP – 90 / Positional ADP – WR37
If we are talking “My Guys” for Fantasy Football, Jahan Dotson has been once since being drafted in the first by Washington last season. I really loved Dotson as a prospect. In his final season, Dotson ranked #12 in receptions (91), #18 in receiving yards (1,182), and tied#8 in receiving touchdowns (12) in College Football for Penn State. Utilizing the 16th overall pick in last year’s draft says exactly how Washington felt about him.
Rookie season in 2022, Dotson averaged 10.9 Fantasy PPG across the 12 games he played. If you strictly look at the games Dotson played 70%+ of the snaps, he averaged 14.03 Fantasy PPG which was guided by .75 touchdowns through those eight played. 523 receiving yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games was a decent rookie season through some injuries. 4.43 speed, catch and run abilities, volume profile, zone beater and great hands makes up a great talent.
Sam Howell will enter his first season as Washington’s starter. Camp clip after camp clip has shown Howell to Dotson big plays, which makes Dotson’s sophomore season so exciting. Terry McLaurin is the perceived #1 target, but just recently was reported to be dealing with an injury. Even in a perfectly healthy world, I believe that Dotson and McLaurin are much closer in their potential production than people would like to credit. My hot take is that Dotson actually leads Washington in targets for 2023. I am optimistic that Dotson will be a great FLEX play this year, and as the WR37 he is being slept on in drafts.
Got a beef with one of Nick’s picks? Let him hear about it in the comments below. For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
GIVEAWAY ALERT! 🚨📷
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) August 3, 2023