Keys to Winning in Fantasy Football: Draft Mobile Quarterbacks

Targeting “upside” in your Fantasy Football drafts is a smart way to give you an edge in your Fantasy leagues. We can define “upside,” as separating factors for players that give them an elevated ceiling for scoring fantasy points. A true upside metric for Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football is rushing ability. Typical scoring for a Quarterback includes .04 per passing yard, four or six points for a passing touchdown, -1 for an interception and some leagues give credits for two-point conversions. Now if your Fantasy Quarterback also rushes the ball at a consistent rate, that can mean adding .1 per rushing yard, six for a rushing touchdown, and again the possible two-point conversion. This creates a both safer floor and a higher ceiling for Fantasy scoring.

Impact of Rushing Yards on QB Fantasy Scoring

A great example of the rushing impact on a quarterback’s scoring is Justin Fields from 2022. In Weeks 6 through 11, Fields finished each game as a Top 10 scoring QB for Fantasy, despite not finishing any of those six games with 200 passing yards and only throwing multiple touchdowns in three of the six. Fields did average 106.66 rushing yards during this span and added six rushing touchdowns total. So while Justin Fields was not doing much through the air consistently, the rushing upside truly propelled him to have great weeks.

Another example of the impact of having rushing upside from last year was Lamar Jackson, who scored over 40 Fantasy points in back-to-back Weeks 2 and 3. In those games, he threw for 318/218 passing yards and 3/4 touchdowns but also paired that with 119/107 rushing yards with a rushing touchdown in each of those games. Those Fantasy scores were matchup winners, and due to the added rushing upside to good passing days.

The question at hand here though is how much of an impact does rushing upside have on a Quarterback’s overall Fantasy finish for the position as well as the Fantasy points per game (PPG)? To truly outline this, we can look at the last five seasons of Quarterback data for those that rushed for at least 300 yards on the season.

300+ Rushing Yard Quarterbacks: 2018-2022

Notes:

• Variables to the data include passing volume (attempts), passing completions, passing touchdowns, interceptions, rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, offensive lines, coaching schemes, weapons on offense, and health
• Quarterback who rushed for 300+ yards (42 total players)
  • Averaged an 11.6 overall Fantasy finish for the position
  • Averaged 19.5 Fantasy PPG which would have ranked seventh in 2022 for Quarterbacks who threw at least 50 passes
  • 26/42 finished as a Top 12 Quarterback (61.90%)
  • 15/42 finished as a Top 5 Quarterback (35.71%)
  • 22/42 averaged 20+ Fantasy PPG (52.38%)
• Quarterbacks who rushed for 500+ yards (18 total players)
  • Averaged an 8.94 overall Fantasy finish for the position
  • Averaged 20.99 Fantasy PPG which would have ranked fifth in 2022 for Quarterbacks who threw at least 50 passes
  • 13/18 finished as a Top 12 Quarterback (72.22%)
  • 6/18 finished as a Top 5 Quarterback (33.33%)
  • 12/18 averaged 20+ Fantasy PPG (66.66%)
• At a 61.90% rate, hitting the 300+ yard threshold feels like a great translation to being a Top 12 Fantasy QB. The 72.22% odds for those who hit 500+ makes it feel like a near-lock year-to-year.
• Seeing that the 500+ rushing yard Quarterbacks hit the Top 5 mark on a lower percentage than the general 300+ rushing yard Quarterbacks shows the importance to have a balance of other statistics as well.
• Over half of the entire data set hitting 20+ Fantasy PPG is important and 2/3 of the 500+ yard rushing Quarterbacks hitting this mark makes it clear to target these players

Projecting 300+ and 500+ Rushing Yard Quarterbacks for 2023

Seeing the percentages of the sample size Quarterbacks who finished Top 12 and/or finish with 20+ Fantasy PPG, it is important to project ahead and identify who can hit these numbers in 2023. Rushing upside being tied to Fantasy success is an easy incentive to draft mobile Quarterbacks. We will separate Quarterbacks into: 500+ Locks (near guaranteed to hit 500+ rushing yards), 300+ Locks (near guaranteed to hit 300-499 rushing yards), and 300+ Possibilities (the chance is there for the Quarterback to hit 300+ rushing yards).

500+ Locks:

• Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
• Daniel Jones, New York Giants
• Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

300+ Locks:

• Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

300+ Possibilities:

• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
• Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
• Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
• Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
• Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
• Kyler Murray (injury), Arizona Cardinals

We love upside in Fantasy Football, and it is evident that rushing upside can give Quarterbacks a push toward Fantasy success. If a Quarterback is having an average or below-average passing day, the rushing yard statistics can give them the cushion to avoid a bust week. If a Quarterback is having a solid passing day and a good rushing day, that can lead to week-winning scoring. I will be walking into my Fantasy drafts this year targeting mobile Quarterbacks for an edge in a championship run.

For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023