And our ride has come to an end. This is the last week of the regular season, so let’s keep things going one more time. Our Week 17 picks were relatively strong going 3-1. The only issue was the Philadelphia Eagles being upset at home by Arizona Cardinals in a shocking defeat.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 18 of the NFL season. This week, things are a little more difficult as some teams quite simply have nothing to play for which will influence things. Before the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
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Week 18 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
It is an interesting matchup of backup quarterbacks this week as Sam Darnold takes on Carson Wentz. In all honesty, it comes as a surprise that Wentz is even back in the league, let alone starting this Sunday. Gems like this are what make Week 18 so interesting and also hard to follow at times.
There is no question that the 49ers are the better team here, but both teams have already clinched their playoff berths. Not only is Wentz playing for the Rams, but Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald are also getting the week off. San Francisco is also resting some key players, including Christian McCaffrey, but they retain the upper hand when it comes to talent.
Wentz has yet to throw a pass in the NFL this season while Darnold has at least been around the 49ers offense all year. Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason are strong options in the backfield. With neither team having anything to play for, let’s go with the better team who is at home.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
Who would have thought that resting Joe Flacco would truly be noteworthy? The Browns signed the veteran off the street, and all Flacco did was lead Cleveland to the postseason after they previously cycled through three quarterbacks.
As they prepare for the postseason, the Browns will look to keep Flacco rested, which means they will be taking a clear step backward under center. In reality, things are going even further backward as Jeff Driskel will be getting the start. Joining Flacco on the bench will be Myles Garrett, among others, which means things will be that much easier for Jake Browning and the Cincinnati offense.
Browning has done a solid job of filling in for Joe Burrow, and he will be taking his chance seriously to finish the year off on a high note.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders
While they enter the week with the same record as the Philadelphia Eagles, the Dallas Cowboys are in the driver’s seat when it comes to the NFC East. All the Cowboys need to do is take care of business against Washington in what should be an easy matchup.
Dallas will be playing everyone they need to for as long as they need to, and the hope and expectation, is that it won’t be for very long. The last place Commanders have lost seven games in a row, and there is nothing to suggest that it won’t be eight.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
This game only matters for one team, so let’s target the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It doesn’t hurt that Carolina Panthers are just 2-14 this season and have looked terrible. For the most part, Bryce Young has looked lost in his rookie season while the Buccaneers are playing for a division title.
In what has been a generally strong season, Baker Mayfield did struggle some last week, but he did get over 300 yards passing. No one is going to confuse Mayfield with a top quarterback, but he will finish with more than 4,000 passing yards while being just two touchdowns away from 30. While he was dealing with a rib injury, Mayfield should be fine to take the field with his plethora of weapons. And in doing so, he will lead the Buccaneers to a division title.
Games to Fade
Due to the composition of the schedule and the tight spreads, there aren’t games we are looking to fade.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Tampa Bay
Line 2
Buffalo, Dallas
Line 3
San Francisco, Cincinnati
Line 4
San Francisco
Week 18 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty