Thanksgiving may be behind us, but Week 12 still offers plenty of opportunities for us to cash some tickets. With that in mind, I present to you my Week 12 NFL player props. While this season has been a bit up and down, I am 5-1 over the last two weeks in this space. I see some matchups that we can exploit this week. There may even be a potential for alternate lines and ladder plays. Let me know what you think about these picks in the comment section, and as always, gamble responsibly.
Week 12 NFL Player Props
Michael Pittman OVER 5.5 Receptions (-148, Caesars)
I know, I know. This line is way too juicy for some of you. Trust me, I don’t love it either. But this is one of those occasions where I think laying the juice is justified. Since the Indianapolis Colts lost Anthony Richardson for the season, Gardner Minshew has played five full games. In those games, Michael Pittman has dominated targets and receptions like few others in the league. He has a 30.1 percent target share over those five games and has caught eight or more balls in four of five. If you limit it to just the last three Colts games, the numbers are even more pronounced. Pittman has eight grabs in each of his last three contests and has had a target share of 30.8 percent or greater in each game. Now he gets to face Tampa Bay’s cornerback group, likely without Jamel Dean.
Dean has been below average in coverage this year, but he is still the best cornerback the Buccaneers have. Out of 88 corners with at least 200 coverage snaps this year, Dean ranks 56th in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grade. Dean’s likely replacement on the right side of the defense will be Zyon McCollum, who is definitely a real NFL player and not a mashup of New Orleans Pelicans players. McCollum is 81st among those 88 cornerbacks in coverage. Carlton Davis, who usually covers the left side of the field, is 82nd. Slot corner Christian Izien is 69th. Pittman lines up outside roughly 75 percent of the time, so he should have a favorable draw on virtually every route he runs. Minshew trusts Pittman, and that should result in plenty of targets and receptions on Sunday.
I think the biggest threat to this could be the health of slot receiver Josh Downs. Opponents have completed 84.2 percent of passes against Izien. That is the third-highest among the 88 cornerbacks with at least 200 routes covered. Downs has been dealing with a knee injury and has seen reduced work in recent weeks. The Colts were on a bye last week, so Downs should be relatively healthy entering this game. His reception line is only 3.5, but the price is even steeper than Pittman’s. The lowest price I have seen on Downs is -160. I think Pittman is in a great position this week regardless of Downs’ status. I love him to catch at least six passes in this matchup and am locking this in as my first Week 12 NFL player prop.
Keaton Mitchell Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-110, Barstool/ESPN BET)
Keaton Mitchell has been one of the most dynamic running backs in the NFL since being inserted into the lineup back in Week 9. He already has four runs of over 20 yards and a 32-yard reception for good measure. Small sample size alert, but Mitchell’s metrics are pretty comparable to De’Von Achane’s. They are PFF’s top-two graded rushers, and both are top-four in elusive rating and top-six in breakaway percentage. The problem is that over the past three weeks, Mitchell only has a total of 20 carries. Gus Edwards has 28, Lamar Jackson has 27, and Justice Hill has 16, though Mitchell seems to have crept past Hill, earning a 14-4 opportunity advantage over the last two weeks. Despite the uncertainty regarding his volume, I will bet on Mitchell to go over his longest rush prop against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers allow an average of 1.91 yards per rush before contact. No other NFL team has allowed more than 1.58 yards per rush before contact. That feeds right into one of the strengths of the Ravens, which is their offensive line. Baltimore creates an average of 1.75 yards per carry before contact for their running backs. Only the Philadelphia Eagles have produced a higher number. The Chargers have been solid against the run in recent weeks. But I think that has more to do with their opposition than their prowess. In their last five games, they have faced four teams that rank outside the top 20 in PFF’s overall run-blocking metric. The one time they faced an elite run-blocking team, they allowed a 75-yard touchdown to David Montgomery and a 35-yard rush to Jahmyr Gibbs. Baltimore ranks seventh overall in PFF’s run-blocking metric.
If you want a less risky alternative to this player prop, you can bet on Mitchell to score a touchdown. He has done so in two of his last three games. That is currently (as of this writing) +235 on DraftKings. You can risk less than half a unit and still get the same return if he scores. Given Mitchell’s explosiveness, I do not mind going that route. Either way, the combination of Baltimore’s run blocking, Los Angeles’ questionable run defense, and Mitchell’s 99th-percentile speed should be able to help us hit on this prop.
DJ Moore OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
DJ Moore has only gone over this receiving yard total in four games this season. However, that stat needs to come with a massive disclaimer attached. That is because Moore failed to hit this number in all five games that backup quarterback Tyson Bagent played. In the six games that Moore has played to completion with Justin Fields behind center, he has gone over this total four times. In those six games, Moore has averaged 104.5 yards. Even if you remove his 230-yard effort in Week 5, Moore is still averaging 79.4 receiving yards per game with Fields at the helm. I think the Bears’ top wide receiver has an excellent chance to approach and perhaps surpass that number on Monday night when Chicago faces the Minnesota Vikings.
One aspect of this matchup that I like is that Minnesota has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Fields is not the most polished passer, but he has been good when given a clean pocket. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in a clean pocket this season, Fields ranks third in yards per completion (12.29) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.7). Minnesota has also allowed the second-most receptions to opposing wideouts this year and the sixth-highest completion percentage. Rookie cornerback Mekhi Blackmon has had a solid campaign, but the Vikings generally do not shadow opposing receivers. That means Moore should match up plenty against Byron Murphy and Akayleb Evans (if healthy). The pair has combined to allow 8.12 yards per target and a passer rating well over 100. Moore has averaged 9.3 targets in Fields’ last three full games.
Given the data, this feels like one of those spots where all of Moore’s props are in play. His reception line is relatively low at 4.5, and his long reception is currently at 22.5. He has at least six receptions in four of six games with Fields and has exceeded his long reception line in five of those six. I will stick with the total receiving yards as my official pick, and it is my favorite Week 12 NFL player prop. But I would not argue against anyone who wanted to jump on either of the other two props. This also feels like a potential ladder spot for both receptions and receiving yards. I expect a big game out of DJ Moore in Minnesota on Monday night which will help us end the week on a high note.
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