Welcome to the first installment of our weekly NFL player prop series! I am here to try to replicate the success I had with baseball. And to help ensure that, I have brought some reinforcements with me. Reese Jones and Ray Kuhn will add some of their favorite plays as well. We hope that these weekly NFL player props will help you make some money this season. I believe they are helpful in other arenas as well. Our analysis can assist with start/sit conundrums in fantasy football leagues, as well as highlight some matchups for DFS. No matter what your drug of choice is, hopefully, you will find our picks useful. Before I drop my Week 1 NFL player props, let me drop a little bit of general knowledge.
When it comes to these picks, lines, and prices move fast, especially as game day approaches. These picks will be published every Friday morning. If you see something you like, it is probably best to jump on it quickly. Most casual bettors will wait until the weekend to begin scouring the board. Lines and prices will often move quickly once public money starts coming in. Also, stay on top of the latest injury news and use some deductive reasoning. If I like Player A because Player B is doubtful on Friday morning, but then Player B ends up playing, I might not be as bullish on Player A. Dave Funnell does an amazing job for us tracking injuries from all over the league, so make sure you are following his work. With all of that out of the way, here are my favorite Week 1 NFL player props.
Week 1 NFL Player Props
Mick Ciallela’s NFL Player Props
Bijan Robinson (ATL) OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards v. CAR (-114, FanDuel)
If you take nothing else from any column I have written featuring player props, please take this piece of advice – always shop around for the best price available. Almost every sportsbook I looked at has this at 70.5 yards. And I expect that FanDuel will follow suit by kickoff. Bijan Robinson makes his highly anticipated NFL debut this Sunday when the Falcons host the Carolina Panthers. Atlanta will want to showcase their new offensive centerpiece in front of the home crowd. Robinson should reach this threshold on sheer volume alone. Do you think Arthur Smith ran a lot last season? The Falcons averaged 32.9 rushes per game last season, and that was without a workhorse back. Imagine what he will do now that he has a potential three-down back in the fold.
The matchup is not one to shy away from either. Carolina has a middle-of-the-pack defensive line. They permitted a league average 4.39 yards per carry to opposing running backs in 2022. Meanwhile, the Falcons boast one of the best offensive lines in the business. Atlanta averaged a tick under five yards per carry last season. Guard Chris Lindstrom led all offensive linemen with a 93.1 run-block grade per Pro Football Focus. Tackle Kaleb McGary was not far behind, posting a 91.6 mark. The team bolstered the line by drafting Matthew Bergeron in this year’s draft. I expect Bijan Robinson to get a ton of work in this game and easily surpass his rushing yardage prop. This is easily one of my favorite Week 1 NFL player props, and I may also be looking to play some of his alternate yardage props in this matchup.
Rachaad White (TB) OVER 2.5 Receptions at MIN (-150, DK)
I know, I know. Nobody wants to play a prop at -150. I get it. Just hear me out. Rachaad White caught three or more passes in 10 out of his last 14 games last season. Sure, this year’s Bucs will likely be less pass-happy without Tom Brady. But White caught all those passes while splitting work with Leonard Fournette. He also ranked nine among all running backs in PFF’s receiving grade. For the moment, White figures to face relatively little competition for touches in the backfield. The offensive line will have some new faces, and there may be some protection issues, especially early in the year. This game will be played on the road inside a loud dome. I expect Baker Mayfield to try to get the ball out quickly, and White could be a beneficiary of this strategy.
Minnesota had issues with containing dual-threat running backs a season ago. They allowed the ninth-most receptions and receiving yards to enemy backs last year. The expected game script could also lend itself towards White catching passes. Tampa is a 5.5-point underdog in Minnesota. That is one of the largest spreads of the week. If the Bucs fall behind early, they may need to play with some tempo and adopt a more pass-heavy approach. I don’t mind taking his receiving yards if you do not want to take a player prop listed at -150. However, I must mention that White only hit 20 or more receiving yards in seven of the 10 games in which he had at least three receptions. I just think the reception prop is a safer bet than the yardage in this instance.
Raheem Mostert (MIA) OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards at LAC (-113, BetRivers)
For those without BetRivers in their state, FanDuel has this at 58.5 with a price of -114 to the Over. I am fine playing this at that number and price. Sunday’s matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers has the highest implied total on the board. While that means both passing attacks should be busy, I also expect Raheem Mostert to have a solid day. Mostert should lead Miami’s backfield in carries by a sizable margin on Sunday. Rookie De’Von Achane is just making his way back after suffering a shoulder injury three weeks ago. And Salvon Ahmed hasn’t carried the ball more than eight times in a game since 2020. Mostert could not ask for a much better matchup to exploit when he faces the Los Angeles Chargers.
Last season, the Chargers allowed opposing running backs to average 5.59 yards per rush. That was far and away the worst in the NFL. For reference, the league average was 4.40. They also led the league by allowing 2.00 yards per rush before contact. 12 different running backs had at least 14 carries in a game against the Chargers last year. All 12 had a minimum of 66 rushing yards, with 10 of the 12 surpassing 100 rushing yards. There were also a few backs who surpassed 57.5 rushing yards on fewer than 14 carries against Los Angeles last year. Even though he has dealt with injuries and is now on the wrong side of 30, Mostert is still one of the fastest backs in the league. If he gets through the line unscathed, he is a threat to take it the distance.
Head coach Mike McDaniel has stressed wanting to run the ball more, and this seems like a great opportunity. Getting into a rhythm on the ground will also help keep the Chargers’ potent offense on the sideline. Though Miami’s defense should be improved this season, they will start the year without star cornerback Jalen Ramsey. Emphasizing the running game would be a smart way to keep Justin Herbert and his bevy of pass catchers off the field. This feels like a great spot for Mostert to make an impact. The oft-injured back will never be fresher from a health perspective than he will be on Sunday. So, the Dolphins might as well get while the getting is good. I am picking Raheem Mostert to surpass his rushing prop on Sunday afternoon.
Week 1 Rankings for your season-long leagues: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings
Reese Jones’ Week 1 Props
George Pickens (PIT) OVER 3.5 Receptions (+102, FanDuel)
George Pickens is ready to make the leap in his sophomore campaign. The whole league gets put on notice in Week 1 when he and Kenny Pickett connect for 4+ receptions against a 49ers Defense that I don’t expect the Steelers will be able to run the ball well against.
Miles Sanders (CAR) UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
One of the glaring weaknesses of this team last season was its offensive line. Pair that with a rookie signal caller and you’ve got the recipe for a ton of loaded fronts that Miles will have to contend with. While it isn’t the toughest matchup on paper, I don’t see much of any fireworks popping off in this one.
J.K. Dobbins (BAL) Anytime TD Scorer (+110, MGM)
If either team is anything like it was a season ago, then this matchup should be over before it even starts, with the Baltimore Ravens being the clear victor of course. The books have the spread at -10 for the birds, which suggests that they’ll be in firm control of this matchup. I’d be shocked if the Ravens don’t punch one in on the ground.
Ray Kuhn’s Week 1 DraftKings Props
C.J. Stroud (HOU) Under 196.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
A rookie quarterback making his debut in Baltimore; no thank you. It certainly is unfortunate for Stroud that these are the circumstances in which he makes his NFL debut, but it is difficult to expect much from him. Houston will likely play things conservatively with their prized rookie. While they will be playing from behind, the Ravens should be able to crash the pocket without issue. The fact that Baltimore will be sitting on the pass doesn’t help here either. Last year, the Ravens had the fifth most sacks in the league, and this year they feature a healthier secondary. Stroud passed for just 89 yards in three pre-season games and he isn’t exactly flush with weapons. This will be a rough debut for the rookie.
Sam Howell (WAS) OVER 210.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Howell made his first career start in Week 18 and threw for 169 yards to close out the season. His passing prop for this week doesn’t ask for too much more from him. The fact that he faces an Arizona team that is clearly preparing for next season only makes things better as they will be a defense to target all year. With Terry McLaurin practicing on Thursday, Howell should have a full complement of weapons available. Jahan Dotson is set for a strong sophmore season after finishing the year on a high note and he should form a strong bond with Howell.
Cam Akers (LAR) Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
The Rams are not exactly in good shape entering the season. Cooper Kupp is sidelined, and that leaves Van Jefferson as Matthew Stafford’s best wide receiver target. Akers had an up-and-down 2022 season but he did finish the year strong. In his last four games, Akers averaged 24.5 receiving yards per game, and there has been hype surrounding him this summer. We know that the Rams will be trailing, and if Stafford does not have time to look downfield, or weapons to target, Akers could be busy as a conservative dump-off option.