After months of predicting, projecting and simply waiting, we are here. We are finally here; Week 1 of the 2023 Fantasy Football Season. Rookies with deserved hype, players with team changes, new opportunities, and tons of uncertainty have created plenty of excitement for this upcoming season.
The educated guessing and question marks for teams and individual players will soon become less murky. If you did not have a conversation with your significant other about what a true football Sunday looks like during the season, you best jump on that ASAP.
I was hired this off-season to lead the NFL Content Team here at Fantrax back at the end of June. The grind of not only leading a team of writers but also producing countless forms of content via articles, graphics, short videos, and streams is something I have fully embraced. Be sure to see some of my pre-season written content for Fantrax here. Videos can be found on all Fantrax social media platforms pretty much daily. I love this brand and team. We are collectively delivering Fantasy Football Content to help you “Play 2 Win.”
This specific article will drop weekly and continuously grow and evolve with the intention of preparing you for each Fantasy Football week this season. The combination of saving you the time of looking up information for a given week while also entertaining you will hopefully bring you back weekly. Please note that last season will be referenced in terms of what teams allowed defensively as well as for Fantasy scoring. Off-season changes obviously impact last year’s numbers in both positive and negative ways, but with no data yet this year, I look at last year as a quick reference.
With that being said, let’s dive right into the Sunday slate for Week 1.
Week 1 Fantasy Football Guide
Sunday Afternoon Slate
Bengals vs. Browns
There was plenty of concern about Joe Burrow being ready for Week 1 due to a calf strain, but he has been participating fully at practice and is ready to roll.
Last year Burrow finished as the QB22 and QB13 in his two Cleveland matchups, tossing a pair of touchdowns in both games. Ja’Marr Chase missed the first Cleveland matchup last year but tore them up in the second one, catching 10 of his 15 targets for 119 receiving yards and a touchdown. I have had Chase ranked as my 1.01 for this Fantasy Football season.
Chase was targeted 11.16 times per game last year. Fellow wide receiver Tee Higgins scored a touchdown against the Browns in their first matchup last year while missing the second game. Higgins has had back-to-back seasons with over 1,000 receiving yards. Cleveland was the sixth-best matchup in terms of Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs last year, which is a plus for Joe Mixon.
Deshaun Watson threw a season-high 276 yards last season against Cincinnati during his six-game season. Watson has had two seasons of 4,000+ passing yards as well as finished top five in Fantasy PPG for quarterbacks in all of his three full seasons.
In Amari Cooper’s first season as a Brown, he had career-highs in both targets (132) and receiving touchdowns (9). Cooper finished as the WR7 in his first Bengals matchup last year, guided by 131 receiving yards and a touchdown. Elijah Moore was an off-season addition I loved for Watson. He could be in FLEX category this week looking at a pass-heavy script and the Bengals allowing the 10th most passing yards per game last season.
Nick Chubb rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8 against the Bengals last season and will continue to see heavy volume, especially in the absence of free agent Kareem Hunt.
Texans vs. Ravens
Houston selected CJ Stroud with the second overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. Stroud threw for 8,123 yards and 85 passing touchdowns in his final two Ohio State seasons. The Ravens allowed the 12th-most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers last year, which makes Nico Collins the most interesting of the Houston wide receivers.
In Weeks 10-13 last season, Collins averaged 9 targets before getting banged up. Dalton Schultz comes to Houston from Dallas this season after finishing three straight seasons with 89+ targets and ranging from 577-808 receiving yards. Schultz could end up being Stroud’s favorite target. Dameon Pierce finished with 939 rushing yards last year as a rookie across 13 games and may have Devin Singletary now impacting some touches. The Ravens allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game last year.
Not only was Lamar Jackson given the bag in the off-season, but he also has two new weapons in rookie Zay Flowers and veteran Odell Beckham Jr. Jackson has averaged over 20 Fantasy PPG for four straight seasons. Flowers earned first-round draft capital this year after finishing his final Boston College season with 1,077 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games. Flowers has been smoking pre-season. Mark Andrews has been a top-three tight end in total targets in back-to-back seasons. JK Dobbins has a juicy matchup here as the Texans allowed both the most Fantasy PPG and most rushing yards per game last season. Dobbins has averaged 5.7 and 6 yards per carry in his two seasons played and has displayed upside in both rushing yard totals along with touchdown scoring.
Buccaneers vs. Vikings
Minnesota was the second-best Fantasy wide receiver matchup last year, which is an encouraging sign for Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, whose ADPs this season seemed to reflect the Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield transition. Godwin had an average depth of target (aDot) of seven or fewer yards last season, while ranking top-six in back-to-back seasons in yards after the catch (YAC). The low aDot and YAC combination shows playmaking abilities, as a wide receiver who has totaled over 1,000 yards in each of the last two years.
The Vikings also allowed the 10 most Fantasy PPG to running backs last season, which can be a plus this week for Rachaad White as the Buc’s lead back. White managed to catch 50 passes last season as a rookie, even with Leonard Fournette, now a free agent, catching 73.
Kirk Cousins put up a career-high 643 attempts last season, which ranked fourth-highest amongst quarterbacks and shows volume through the air. Justin Jefferson finished 2022 number one for wide receivers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, YAC, total route wins, and total Fantasy Points.
The Vikings selected Jordan Addison out of USC in the first round this year to pair with Jefferson. Addison had 1,593 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns back in 2021. Talent, volume, and Tampa Bay allowing the seventh most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers makes Addison a FLEX consideration.
TJ Hockenson recently received a four-year extension by the Vikings. Hockenson scored the fourth most Fantasy PPG last season, and Tampa Bay was a top-10 matchup for tight ends last year. The Buccaneers ranked 27th in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs last season, which if that carries over can mean a tougher game for first-year starter Alexander Mattison.
Panthers vs. Falcons
Carolina selected Bryce Young as the first player off the board in this year’s draft out of Alabama. Young finished his college career with 8,356 passing yards and 80 passing touchdowns. Atlanta allowed the eight most passing yards per game last season.
Roles are unknown in the Carolina wide receiver room with veteran Adam Thielen, a hopefully healthy DJ Chark, and second-round rookie Jonathan Mingo and Hayden Hurst at tight end.
Atlanta allowed the 10th most rushing yards per game last season, which could mean well for new starting running back Miles Sanders who had a career year in rushing yards last season in Philadelphia (1,269 yards).
Bijan Robinson (8th overall pick in 2023), Drake London (8th overall pick in 2022) and Kyle Pitts (4th overall pick in 2021) highlight an exciting young Falcons core.
Bijan finished his college career at Texas with 4,215 total scrimmage yards and has earned the “generational prospect” tag. Tyler Allgeier surpassed 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie last year but is in the passenger seat now. Drake London finished 2022 with the fifth-highest target share amongst wide receivers and draws a juicy matchup if the numbers stick from last year with Carolina allowing the 4th most Fantasy PPG to wide receivers in 2022. London averaged nine targets in the four Desmond Ridder starts last season, capping off the year with a WR10 and 120 receiving yard Week 18 performances. Pitts earned 110 targets and finished with over 1,000 receiving yards rookie season.
Cardinals vs. Commanders
To be straightforward here, the Cardinals may be one of, if not the worst, teams in football this year.
In Kyler Murray’s absence, Josh Dobbs looks to be the Week 1 starter. Dobbs started for the Titans last year in the final two games of the season, resulting in QB18 and QB19 Fantasy finishes.
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown started 2022 on fire across his first six games, earning 10.66 targets per game and scoring 18.25 Fantasy points per game during that stretch. Hollywood should easily operate as the team’s number one target, with the number two target, between wide receivers Rondale Moore, rookie Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch being unknown. Keep an eye on former second-round pick Trey McBride with Zach Ertz likely to miss Week 1. McBride caught 90 passes for 1,121 receiving yards in his final Colorado State season back in 2021. Washington was not a plus matchup for Fantasy for any position last year.
Sam Howell enters 2023 as the starter for Washington. He threw for 10,283 passing yards and 92 passing touchdowns in 2019-2021 at North Carolina.
Howell’s 828 rushing yards in his final college season show some upside with his legs.
Arizona allowed the 11th most Fantasy PPG to quarterbacks last season. Terry McLaurin, who returned to action on Wednesday after dealing with turf toe, has had three straight seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards.
Jahan Dotson was selected in the first round last year by Washington and has looked great, both at practice and in pre-season games with Howell. Look for Dotson to take a big year-two leap, with Week 1 being the first opportunity, especially if McLaurin is not 100%.
Eric Bieniemy is the new Washington Offensive-Coordinator after being in the same role for Kansas City the last five seasons. The hope is that the Antonio Gibson is Bieniemy’s new Jerick McKinnon, who had 56 catches for 512 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season for the Chiefs.
Jaguars vs Colts
2022 was a huge jump for Trevor Lawrence who finished with 28 more completions, 472 more passing yards, 16 more total touchdowns, and nine fewer interceptions than his rookie season.
Lawrence was a Top 12 Fantasy quarterback in both Colts matchups, with Week 6 being a QB4 overall finish.
In that Week 6 matchup against the Colts, Lawrence completed 90.9% of his passes, threw a touchdown, and rushed for two.
Calvin Ridley will return to action for the first time since October 24, 2021. Ridley earned 143 targets and finished with 1,374 receiving yards back in 2021 for Atlanta.
2022 was a career year in several statistics for wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones along with tight end Evan Engram in receiving yards. Last season the Colts allowed the seventh most Fantasy PPG to running backs, which is a plus for Travis Etienne who rushed for 1,125 yards last year.
Anthony Richardson was selected fourth overall by the Colts in this year’s NFL Draft as the team’s new franchise quarterback. Richardson finished his college career at Florida with 3,105 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns along with 1,116 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns, showing his dual-threat ability.
Mobile quarterbacks translate great for Fantasy Football scoring, and the Jaguars were the eighth-best Fantasy matchup last season for quarterbacks.
Colts’ alpha wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. had one of his best Fantasy weeks of the season last year against Jacksonville, catching 13 of 16 targets for 134 receiving yards.
Jonathan Taylor will miss at least four weeks this year after being kept on the physically unable to participate (PUP) list which leaves Deon Jackson as the likely starter. Jackson finished Week 6 against the Jaguars last year as the RB1 for the week guided by 10 catches. Obviously a different situation this year.
49ers vs. Steelers
Brock Purdy, who finished as a Top 10 Fantasy for Fantasy Football in three of his six starts last season, will open up for the 49ers as the starting quarterback.
Christian McCaffrey finished 2022 averaging the second-most Fantasy PPG for the running back position. The Steelers allowed the 10th most Fantasy PPG last season, which could be positive for the likes of Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, especially if George Kittle is banged up. Last season Aiyuk finished with career highs in targets (113), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (8). Down season due to injury for Deebo last year, which was disappointing after averaging the third most Fantasy PPG back in 2021.
Last season, the 49ers ranked outside the top 25 in Fantasy PPG allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, and tight ends, making them a tough Fantasy matchup across the board. The asterisk was the wide receiver position, with the 49ers allowing the sixth most PPG to the position.
Diontae Johnson, who has earned 147-169-144 targets across the last three seasons, should be highlighted. 2022 was a disappointing year for Johnson in Fantasy scoring due to mediocre yards and zero touchdowns, but Kenny Pickett has looked improved this off-season and the hope is Pittsburgh takes a leap forward in 2023. Back in 2021, Johnson scored the eighth most Fantasy PPG for wide receivers. George Pickens finished his rookie campaign last season with 801 receiving yards. Pickens ranking #2 in aDot and #7 in deep balls shows the big play ability with 2023 hopes his targets become more consistent.
Titans vs. Saints
Last year as a Cardinal, DeAndre Hopkins earned 10+ targets in 78% of his games played (7/9). The Saints were a tougher wide receiver matchup last season, but when it comes to who should see the volume between Hopkins, Treylon Burks, and Chig Okonkwo, I feel Hopkins is the true alpha for Ryan Tannehill.
The Saints were a tough matchup last year for running backs as well, ranking outside the Top 20 in Fantasy PPG allowed, but we should expect Derrick Henry to continue to see workhorse volume who had nine games over 100 yards rushing last season.
The Titans allowed both the most Fantasy PPG and passing yards per game last season, which screams Chris Olave. Last season as a rookie Olave ranked #4 in deep targets, #9 in aDot, #8 in air yards, and finished with 1,042 receiving yards. These bigger play metrics pair well on paper with new quarterback Derek Carr who ranked fifth for the position in both deep ball attempts and air yards; a deep play wide receiver paired with a quarterback who goes deep.
Michael Thomas has been untrustworthy in the Fantasy Football world due to only playing in 10 games across the last two seasons, but if we can even get a fraction of that 2019 season when he finished with 1,725 receiving yards, he can find Fantasy Football relevance.
Juwan Johnson is in a tight-end-friendly matchup as well, based on last year’s numbers (4th most PPG allowed). Johnson scored seven touchdowns last season and is intriguing due to Carr’s history with tight end Darren Waller back with the Raiders.
Raiders vs. Broncos
Denver allowed the ninth-most Fantasy PPG last season to running backs, which Josh Jacobs knows all too well as he finished as the RB2 and RB7 in Weeks 4 and 11 against the Broncos. In Week 4 last season Jacobs dropped 144 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the Broncos and then 109 in Week 11. Jacobs led the league with 1,653 rushing yards last year.
Denver was the toughest matchup in the NFL for wide receivers last year, which is an eyebrow-raiser for Davante Adams who will have his first season with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Adams did finish Week 4 with 101 receiving yards, then exploded in Week 11 for 141 receiving yards and two touchdowns against Denver last season.
Last season the Raiders were a positive matchup for both quarterbacks and running backs, ranking 6th and 5th in Fantasy PPG allowed to those positions.
Russell Wilson simply had an awful first year in Denver last season, but the hope is he bounces back with Sean Payton hired as the new Head Coach. Wilson has had four seasons of 4,000+ passing yards and three seasons of 30+ passing touchdowns.
Jerry Jeudy may miss the week due to his hamstring injury, which would leave Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and tight end Greg Dulcich as his primary targets.
Javonte Williams is in the clear to play this week which has surprised some people due to previous uncertainties about his ACL recovery. How much volume Williams sees in Week 1 is unknown, which could mean a sneaky Samaje Perine week if he touches the ball enough.
Eagles vs. Patriots
Jalen Hurts, who averaged the most Fantasy PPG in 2022, will lead the Eagles again this season. Hurts upped his passing yardage total to 3,701 last season, pairing that with 760 rushing yards and 35 total touchdowns.
Both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith finished with over 1,100 receiving yards and ranked top-15 in Fantasy PPG for the wide receiver position.
Although he played just 12 games, Dallas Goedert averaged the fifth-most Fantasy PPG for the tight end position. This core is solid.
New England ranked 29th in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs last season. What the split looks like between D’Andre Swift (my favorite of the room), Kenneth Gainwell, and Rashaad Penny this year is unknown, which makes a tough running back matchup even more skeptical.
Last season the Eagles were a tough matchup for Fantasy Football across the board. The Patriots have many questions right now.
Rhamondre Stevenson last season looked like a Fantasy Football lock after rushing for 1,040 yards and catching 69 balls, until Ezekiel Elliott entered the running back room and drew questions about his impact.
JuJu Smith-Schuster will be in his first season in New England and should be the number one target, but reports have come out with knee concerns. I do like the Mike Gesicki signing for the tight end position after some of his better seasons in Miami, but he is coming off of a shoulder injury. The Fantasy Football options against a tough Eagles team seem rough this week.
Rams vs. Seahawks
Matthew Stafford missed both of the Seattle games last season dealing with injury, and his top option Cooper Kupp will miss Week 1 of this season.
Many people have asked who will be the wide receiver option to step up in Kupp’s absence, and I think the answer is tight end Tyler Higbee. Seattle allowed the most Fantasy PPG to the tight end position last season, and Tyler Higbee led the Rams in total targets (108).
Seattle was also a positive running back matchup last season ranking third in Fantasy PPG allowed. Cam Akers finished 2022 hot with 118-123-104 rushing yards across his final three games, with that 104 day being against the Seahawks.
Geno Smith finished 2022 top 10 for quarterbacks in passing attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, QBR, and Fantasy PPG.
In week 13 against the Rams, Smith finished as the QB3 throwing for 367 yards and three touchdowns. In week 18 Smith finished as the QB12.
Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett finished with over 1,000 receiving yards last season, and both smoked the Rams in Week 13. That week Lockett finished with 128 receiving yards as the WR5 and Metcalf with 127 receiving yards as the WR6.
The Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba (aka JSN) in the first round this season out of Ohio State, as the first wide receiver off the board at pick 20. JSN finished his 201 college season with 1,606 receiving yards. Following a wrist surgery, it is unclear what percentage JSN is at for Week 1 but he should be on the field.
Dolphins vs. Chargers
Last season, Tua Tagivailoa had a mediocre game as the QB17 in Fantasy scoring against the Chargers in Week 14. Tua did average Top 10 Fantasy PPG as a whole last season as well as ranked first in yards per attempt and third in QBR.
The upside and safer floor are with Tua’s wide receivers in Tyreek Hill and (hopefully healthy) Jaylen Waddle who both finished 2022 top 10 in yards after catch.
Both Hill and Waddle finished above 1,300 in the receiving yard department as one of the league’s best duos, despite Tua missing time. This game script should be through the air in Week 1.
Last season the Chargers ranked 8th in Fantasy PPG allowed to running backs, which impacts Raheem Mostert who should operate as the lead back and had two games over 100 rushing yards last season.
For two straight seasons, Justin Herbert has ranked second in passing attempts, with a career-high 699 last season. 2022 looked like a “down year” for Herbert, who dealt with a rib injury and also was without both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for a chunk of games.
In last season’s matchup, Williams finished with 116 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins, with Allen catching 12 passes for 92 yards himself. Williams was a top 15 Fantasy wide receiver in six of the 11 games he played 50%+ of the snaps in 2022. Allen averaged 10.71 targets, 7.86 receptions, 83 receiving yards, and .57 touchdowns in his final seven healthy games.
Miami allowed the 12th most Fantasy PPG last season to running backs which is a positive note for Austin Ekeler who is certified “good at football”.
Packers vs. Bears
Chicago allowed the second-most Fantasy PPG to running backs last season, and although they added to their defense in the off-season I believe this is an Aaron Jones note. Jones finished 2022 with career highs in rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59).
In Week 2 last season, Jones put 132 rushing yards on Chicago and scored two touchdowns which resulted in an RB2 finish for the week.
Jordan Love will enter the season as the new starter, and potentially without Christian Watson and/or Romeo Doubs who missed Wednesday’s practice. This could mean a bump for 2023 NFL Draft second-rounders wide receiver Jayden Reed and tight end Luke Musgrave. With the unknowns in who will receive what in the absence of Christian Watson, Jones seems to be the one safe bet.
Justin Fields had a breakout season last year, finishing as the QB6 overall and QB5 in Fantasy PPG. Fields was the quarterback leader in rushing yards with 1,143.
Last season in Week 13 against Green Bay, Fields threw for a season-high 254 yards as well as rushing for 71 yards and a touchdown which resulted in a QB5 finish for the week.
Much has improved for Fields with offensive-line help along with adding his new WR1 in DJ Moore. Moore has finished three of his five seasons with 1,100+ receiving yards and has looked well-connected with Fields in pre-season. Look for these two to have a major connection in 2023.
Green Bay allowed the 11th most Fantasy PPG to running backs in 2022, which could translate well for Khalil Herbert who should operate this week as the team’s RB1.
Sunday Night Football
Cowboys vs. Giants
In the Cowboys vs. Giants November matchup last season, Dak Prescott threw for 261 yards and a TD/INT ratio of 2/2. CeeDee Lamb finished with 106 receiving yards. Both Ezekiell Eliott and Dalton Schultz had big impacts on this game but are now out of Dallas.
In the September game, Dallas was led by backup Cooper Rush, and it was a bigger Tony Pollard game as he rushed for 105 yards. CeeDee Lamb finished with 87 receiving yards and a touchdown.
This season, we can expect Lamb and Pollard to be two focal points of the offense with newcomer Brandin Cooks to add to the offense. Cooks has had six seasons of 1,000+ receiving yards.
For the Giants, Saquon Barkley had a good September game last season against the Cowboys, rushing for 81 yards and a touchdown while catching four passes for 45 yards.
In the next matchup in November, Daniel Jones threw for 228 yards and a touchdown while Barkley rushed for another one on the ground.
Darius Slayton finished this second Cowboys matchup with 63 receiving yards.
Darren Waller enters the Giants system, and I project him to be Jones’ #1 target this season. Waller has had two major seasons under his belt with high upsides in both target volume and receiving yards.
Barkley should again operate as a workhorse running back this season. Jones had a career 2022 with Brian Daboll as the Head Coach in year one and is looking to build off of that.