It’s the age old question. Does the offensive line make the RB or does the RB make the offensive line? Is it forcing open the hole or a clever shimmy and sidestep that creates a big run? Our answer to that question is going take some examination. As fantasy football managers, in both dynasty and redraft formats, knowing what to look at first could be a sneaky advantage.
What Offensive Line Talent Predicts
For the sake of keeping things simple, we’ll be using a .5 PPR format as the basis for measuring scoring. For those of you who like things more complicated, I highly recommend a read here. The long and skinny of this thorough breakdown by Justin Edwards is that the offensive line has a big impact on RB fantasy production. In particular, adjusted line yards, a stat from Football Outsiders that measures the yards that the offensive line was responsible for depending on the length of run, has an extremely high correlation with RB success.
Now, keep in mind, this research and chart are based on 2021 figures. But we can see a lot of easy parables to draw from this correlation. We can see Leonard Fournette, a darling to close out the 2021 season, likely benefiting greatly from the 5th highest adjusted line yards total in TB. Likewise, in 2022, the gas in Fournette’s tank seemed to go empty dropping from 4.5 yards per carry to 3.5. It’s no coincidence that TB dropped to 28th in adjusted line yards this past year.
Indianapolis similarly dropped from 7th to 22nd in these offensive line rankings and production from their top two rushers fell dramatically. As in, going from 447 fantasy points between Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss to 261 between JT, Moss, and Deon Jackson. Now we all know the Colts were a dumpster fire for many reasons, so it may not be fair to cherry-pick away at their situation. Still, it’s an alarming drop that caused many a cringe for JT owners this past year.
Does this pass the sniff test?
Looking at the 2022 season, we can also find some serious correlations between offensive line success and RB scoring. Leading the league in adjusted line yards last year were Las Vegas, Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Atlanta respectively. Well, gee, look at that, our leading scorers last year include Christian McCaffrey and Josh Jacobs trailing only Austin Ekeler at 319 points. That said, Ekeler’s a bit of an outlier here as there’s not really any measure of receiving ability baked into this test.
Meanwhile, GB, KC, and ATL were hotbeds for production even if the backfields were split. Each of these backfields tallied roughly 300 fantasy points between their top two rushers. All five teams ranked in the top 11 for points scored by RB. ATL was ranked the lowest, but QB play may have factored into that (more on that later).
Consider the players we’re talking about in these three backfields. Jerick McKinnon is over the hill. Isiah Pacheco is a well-documented 7th-round pick. Allgeier was a 5th-round pick and has been replaced even after tallying over 1,000 yards his rookie year. Cordarrelle Patterson, like McKinnon, is on the wrong side of 30. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon have more of a pedigree, which is likely why they scored nearly 70 points more than the other duos.
Though much of that is opportunity driven, as Jones and Dillon dominate the touches in the backfield with Patrick Taylor grinding out a measly 5 fantasy points as the third back in GB. Adding in Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Caleb Huntley into these numbers with Taylor, we see that gap close to just around 30 points between GB and ATL, and KC actually passing GB with 10 more points across their top three backs.
Enough about Adjusted Line Yards, what about other measures?
PFF’s offensive line run blocking grades for each team sheds further light. They graded ATL, BAL, PHL, MIN, and CHI as their top-5 rush-blocking offensive lines, with KC just outside at #6. Notably, they are much more down on LV and GB at #17 and #23 respectively, perhaps showing more respect to Jacobs and the GB Duo. But with BAL, PHL, MIN, and CHI, we actually clock in some of the worst production from the RB position.
MIN and PHL are right in the middle of the pack at 15th and 16th in terms of fantasy scoring from the position. CHI and BAL on the other hand ranked 28th and 29th. So does that break the theory of offensive line over everything?
Not quite. The common thread for PHL, CHI, and BAL, is three of the most run-happy QBs in Hurts, Fields, and Jackson. So the lesson there is really to avoid RBs paired with rushing QBs like the plague.
As for MIN, well, that’s a point in the column for running backs over offensive line. It appears that Dalvin Cook might just be toast and out of the league in short order. Mattison still hasn’t quite proven that he deserves to be a starting RB in this league. He certainly hasn’t shown any receiving ability that might be able to separate him.
RB targets for the 2023 season
So while Football Outsiders might seem to credit the offensive line for creating yardage, PFF sees it differently. The PFF data suggests that there is considerable wiggle room for an RB to will their offense to success. Or alternatively to oblivion. They just should likely have some receiving ability behind them.
The Rookies
So Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs fans, rejoice! They’re not only behind two strong offensive lines (ATL 5th in adjusted line yards, DET 7th) but also projected to be fantastic receivers. Gibbs might have even more to offer this rookie year too, even if Goff isn’t exactly a statue. Robinson, on the other hand, may have to contend with more designed runs for Ridder eating away at his production. Not to mention, he has a pretty intimidating backfield mate in Allgeier.
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard makes for a very interesting target as well this year. If people haven’t quite bought in yet on the 26-year-old even after his breakout last year, that’s understandable. Being in Zeke’s shadow will do that. Pollard has receiving chops and a huge opportunity behind an offensive line that held up decently after the loss of Tyron Smith (17th in adjusted line yards, 11th in PFF offensive line rush blocking grade). If they could return to previous excellence, 2nd in adjusted line yards in both 2021 and 2019 and the #1 rush blocking offense in 2021 per PFF, we could see Pollard pick up right where Zeke left off.
With low mileage, Pollard still makes for an excellent dynasty target. We might even begin to wonder whether it was Zeke we were in love with after all…
Najee Harris
Finally, Najee Harris is also a strong target for those looking to buy low after a tough year. Ranking 10th in adjusted line yards and 16th in offensive line rush blocking grade, Pittsburgh had a middle-of-the-road attack ranking 20th in fantasy scoring from RBs. But Najee has shown a previous ability to be more than serviceable as a receiver, and Pickett is not a runner by any means. The Steelers invested in their offensive line this offseason with Isaac Seumalo and first-round pick Broderick Jones. Both project to be more pass protectors than road grader, though Jones could excel if he learns to finish his blocks. If Harris could get good blocking, something he didn’t have his rookie year either in spite of his success, he could have another special year. That would be quite the shot to the arm for his dynasty value, going 2 for 3 at 25 years old.
For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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