In fantasy football, usage and opportunity are king. Fantasy points can’t accrue on our teams unless our players accumulate the snaps, attempts, and targets that lead to yards and touchdowns.
This weekly piece will look at usage trends from each NFL team from a fantasy angle. We will look at who is gaining and who is losing opportunities in order to make better future roster decisions.
If you have interesting usage notes, feel free to reach out to me on X (@CableBoxScore) and let me know. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 10 usage!
NFL Week 10 Usage Trends
Only T.J. Hockenson has more targets over the last three games than Trey McBride. McBride’s 28 targets has led to a 32.2% target share in that time and and it’s clear now that McBride will be the waiver wire pickup of the year at the position.
Here’s To You Mr. Robinson
After taking about as much criticism as one coach can over the last week, Arthur Smith finally have Bijan Robinson a work-horse load. He handled 22 carries and got four targets which led to 106 total yards and a score. Will that usage continue? With Atlanta Arthur, your guess is as good as mine.
Arthur Smith did indeed capitulate a bit yesterday. Bijan Robinson:
* 53-of-71 snaps (75%)
* 22-of-34 RB carries (65%)
* 23 routes on 27 QB dropbacks
* 2 targets for a 9.5% share
* Carries from inside the 5-yard line: Bijan 1, everyone else 0
* 22-95-1 rushing, 1-11-0 receiving…
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 13, 2023
With just four touches, Keaton Mitchell had 66 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, plus one more dropped score. He is now approaching 25% of snaps over the last two weeks and is carving out a bigger role in the Ravens’ offense.
Dalton Kincaid was first on the Bills in targets, first in receptions, second in receiving yards, and scored the Bills’ only receiving touchdown on Monday night. He now has 32 targets over his last four games.
Backfield Back to a Mess
After is was assumed that Chuba Hubbard had completely taken over for Miles Sanders’ in the Panthers (underwhelming) backfield, things changed last Wednesday. Hubbard dropped to 50% of snaps and Sanders jumped up to 38% (it was 63% to 25% last week). This may have been just a Thursday Night, short week phenomenon, but it’s something to watch.
Kmet Target Hog
Much like Trey McBride, Cole Kmet’s role in this offense has exploded and he is third among tight end targets over the last three weeks. On the season, he is up to a 20% target share, which is sixth among all tight ends this year.
tight end total EPA when targeted:
1. travis kelce, 35.0
2. george kittle, 31.0
3. mark andrews, 27.5
4. sam laporta, 20.3
5. cole kmet, 18.6
6. dallas goedert, 15.9
7. jake ferguson, 15.5
8. dalton schultz, 14.1
9. tj hockenson, 14.0
10. darren waller, 13.6
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) November 11, 2023
Chase the YAC (NGS)
For someone who was iffy to play in Week 10, Ja’Marr Chase performed well above his expectations. He was second among all wide receivers with four yards after the catch per reception over his expected numbers. Anytime Tee Higgins is out, Chase smashes and even an injury couldn’t keep that from happening this time.
Njoku a New Red Zone Threat
David Njoku tied with Jake Ferguson for most red zone targets in Week 10 with three. It only led to four yards and no score, but these are the kind of high-value opportunities you want from your fantasy tight end.
Lamb Chops Up His Opponents
CeeDee Lamb has 44 targets in the last three weeks, including 14 on Sunday afternoon. Just how dominant is that? Receivers such as George Pickens, Calvin Ridley, and Michael Thomas don’t have that many in their past three games.
Most receiving yard over the past three weeks:
CeeDee Lamb (503)
Noah Brown (382)
Amari Cooper (326) pic.twitter.com/gQrc1c2kkW
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 13, 2023
Sutton So Smooth
Not only did Courtland Sutton have one of the best touchdown catches you will ever see, he also drew 11 targets out of 29 pass attempts for a full 38% target share. Even in a game where Marvin Mims played over 50% of the snaps for the first time, Sutton still proved he is the alpha.
Gibbs New Goal Line Role
Before Sunday, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs had six red zone touches in his last five games. In Week 10, Gibbs saw six RZ touches just in one game. He beat out David Montgomery in that area (6 to 4) when both were healthy, and this looks like a clear thunder-and-lightning scenario moving forward where both have tremendous fantasy value.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
For the first time in a healthy Aaron Jones game, A.J. Dillon outsnapped him 56% to 50%. That led to 81 total yards and no scores for Dillon and 54 yards for Jones. However, Jones saw four red zone opportunities to just two for Dillon, so both of these guys are going to have fantasy value in good matchups. It’s just a lot closer than people think.
Red Zone Tank
What wide receiver led Week 10 in red zone targets heading into Monday Night Football? None other than Tank Dell, the rookie sensation who is quickly becoming the favorite for C.J. Stroud. Those targets only became 15 yards and one touchdown, so he could have had a much bigger day.
Tank Dell’s target shares over last two weeks:
Both season highs
— Alex Johnson (@a_johnsonFF) November 13, 2023
Taylor Now the Bell Cow
Well, Zach Moss is officially dead to fantasy managers now. He did not score a fantasy point and played on just 16% of snaps compared to 88% for Jonathan Taylor. Of the seven red zone opportunities that Indianapolis had on Sunday morning, Taylor got five of them.
Evan Engram Stealing All the Targets
Essentially neutralizing Calvin Ridley on the Jaguars, Evan Engram has the third-highest target share among tight ends over the last three weeks (27%). In fact, Engram hasn’t seen less than seven targets since Week 1 while Ridley is now down to 20% target share on the season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Kansas City Chiefs Did Not Play in Week 10
One week. Primetime. Our house. pic.twitter.com/cza3CLIzwV
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) November 13, 2023
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Davante Adams Happy Again
Davante Adams is dancing again after the Josh McDaniels axe and after getting 27 targets and a 38.6% target share over the last three weeks. Aiden O’Connell is definitely no Aaron Rodgers or even Derek Carr for that matter, but the one catch, eleven-yard debacle from three weeks ago should never happen again.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Quentin Finally Not Quiet
For the first time all season, rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston led all wide receivers on his team in snap percentage (85%). It led to 34 yards and a touchdown, far and away his best fantasy output of the season.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Los Angeles Rams Did Not Play in Week 10
We back. 👋
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 13, 2023
The Miami Dolphins Did Not Play in Week 10
Fast facts💨 pic.twitter.com/1X8PM2Lc3p
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) November 11, 2023
Ty Chandler Moves Up
Partially due to Cam Akers being lost for the season and partially due to Alexander Mattison getting banged up, Ty Chandler stepped up big against New Orleans and played a season-high 44% of snaps. His 45 rushing yards and a touchdown are better than all his other numbers this season combined. Time will tell if he gets a bigger role, but the Vikings might have to give him a longer look now.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
For the first time this season, Juju-Smith Schuster led the Patriots in snaps, playing on 99% of Mac Jones’ drop-backs. However, he turned that playing time into just one catch for nine yards as the descent into obscurity for one of the most talented wide receivers five years ago continues.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Olave Bombs (NGS)
With Jameis Winston taking over for Derek Carr on Sunday, it was bombs away for Chris Olave. His 19.9 average targeted air yards led all receivers and led to 94 yards and a touchdown despite just six catches.
NEW YORK GIANTS
Sit ‘Em All
On the season, the Giants now have five players with between nine and nineteen percent of the team’s targets. With Tommy Devito now the guy throwing those balls, only Saquon Barkley in PPR leagues can be a recommended start for this team.
NEW YORK JETS
Garrett Wilson Volume Monster
Garrett Wilson now leads all wide receivers and tight ends in target share with 33%, just fractions of a point ahead of A.J. Brown. Wilson has not seen fewer than 12 targets since Week 5. They are Zach Wilson targets, but we will take what we can get at this point.
The Philadelphia Eagles Did Not Play in Week 10
BYE WEEK OVER pic.twitter.com/YUNFoep29I
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 13, 2023
Two-Headed Backfield Monster
Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are now completely interchangeable parts for the Steelers, with either holding the noticeable fantasy edge. Both played 51% of snaps on Sunday. Both scored a touchdown. Harris had 96 total yards and Warren had 110.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Deebo Comes Back to Part-Time Role
For Deebo Samuel’s first game back in a month, he was only needed on 56% of snaps against the Jaguars. San Francisco blew them out, but Samuel still got 29 receiving yards and a score. He also rushed four times for 30 yards which is a great sign for his health moving forward.
According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, no player in the league created more separation on their routes than Jaxon Smith-Njigba this past week. It only led to five targets for four catches and 56 yards, but Seattle threw 65% of the time Sunday which is a great harbinger of good things for JSN.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's yards per target …
First 4 games: 3.1
Last 4 games: 9.1
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) November 6, 2023
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Evans Making the Most
Mike Evans led the NFL in air yards in Week 10, piling up 190 in a huge day for the receiver. Evans had his fourth 10-target game of the season and turned it into six catches for 143 yards and a touchdown. All other wide receivers and tight ends combined for 90 yards.
Where Are the Red Zone Targets?
If you’re hoping for De’Andre Hopkins or other Titans’ wide receivers to get looks in the red zone from this team, you may want to think again. Over the last three games, Tennessee threw four times to wide receivers in the red zone and three times to tight ends.
Robinson Targets Outlier
On Sunday, Brian Robinson had six targets, or 25% of his entire season total. He turned that into 119 receiving yards and a score. As you might expect, those 119 yards are more than all his other games this year combined. Don’t count on a repeat.
Data Sources: Pro Football Focus, NFL Next Gen Stats, Football Guys Snap Summary, FTN Air Yards, Pro Football Reference, Team Rankings