We are down to just four races left in the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series regular season. Surprisingly this is the last intermediate oval on the schedule. With a pair of road courses and Daytona still on the schedule, Michigan might be the last “predictable’ race of the regular season. Saturday was an eventful day for NASCAR. Noah Gragson has been suspended indefinitely by Legacy Motor Club. Josh Berry will step in for Sunday’s race as Legacy figures out what to do with Gragson. And on a lighter note, Martin Truex Jr. will return to Joe Gibbs Racing for another year in 2024. It was an eventful Saturday, but let’s sort out our FireKeepers Casino 400 picks today and make some money on Sunday.
Sunday’s race will have 200 total laps which will give us ~125-130 dominator points to work with on DraftKings. Last year’s Michigan race saw a handful of cautions and quite a few drivers lead 20+ laps. I wouldn’t expect that on Sunday. We’re in year two of the NextGen car so there are fewer “kinks” to work out. The drivers are more comfortable in this model of car. But we can look to a lot of the drivers we previewed earlier in the week when building lineups for tomorrow’s race. You will likely want two or three dominators for tomorrow’s action and a good portion of those points will be rewarded to the drivers in the top 10.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks: The Top Ten
- Christopher Bell (#20 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Ross Chastain (#1 Trackhouse Racing)
- Ty Gibbs (#54 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Chris Buescher (#17 RFK Racing)
- Martin Truex Jr. (#19 Joe Gibbs Racing)
- Joey Logano (#22 Team Penske)
- William Byron (#24 Hendrick Motorsports)
- Kyle Busch (#8 Richard Childress Racing)
- Ryan Blaney (#12 Team Penske)
- Chase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports)
Three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are in the top 10. Are we surprised? They’ve arguably been the best team in terms of showing up with speed every week. It does feel like the three most likely drivers to lead the most laps starting in the top 10 will be Christopher Bell, Martin Truex Jr., and William Byron. Their practice speeds and qualifying efforts indicate they may have the best cars come Sunday. We do have a variety of position differential drivers to consider across the entire pricing spectrum. Let’s see which drivers we can round out our builds with to go with our dominators.
Which Value-Priced FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks Got A Points Movement Bump?
DraftKings:
- Erik Jones – P25, $7,300
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – P27, $7,000
- Josh Berry – P35, $6,400
- Corey LaJoie – P31, $5,500
FanDuel:
- Alex Bowman – P20, $7,200
- Erik Jones – P25, $6,500
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – P27, $6,000
- AJ Allmendinger – P24, $4,800
- Josh Berry – P35, $2,500
Josh Berry is like the free square on DraftKings and FanDuel for cash games. This is the worst equipment he’s had in the Cup Series this year. But talent alone should hopefully push him to a top 25 and you’ll be happy with that in cash games. As mentioned earlier this week, this is the home track for Erik Jones. While he doesn’t have much win equity he does have sneaky top-10 potential. And I’ll never shy away from Stenhouse at a track that’s full throttle especially after he was top ten at Pocono. But there are other position differential plays to consider like Ryan Preece, Justin Haley, and possibly Todd Gilliland. For my own lineup construction on Sunday, I prefer the bulleted drivers above.
Which Higher-Priced Picks Got A Similar Bump?
- Kyle Larson – P17
- Denny Hamlin – P13
- Kevin Harvick P22
- Tyler Reddick – P15
This is pretty cut and dry. These are the only expensive drivers offering PD and even Denny Hamlin isn’t a huge PD target, but he’s still worth mentioning. Harvick will be very popular and is easily in play-for-cash games. He’s won five of the last seven races at Michigan so track history alone implies he should move up. Tyler Reddick, as mentioned earlier in the week, should benefit from the team swap to Toyota. He hasn’t historically been great at Michigan, but there’s optimism for Sunday’s race given the Toyota affiliation.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Picks
DraftKings
- William Byron – $10,000; Starting P7
- Christopher Bell – $9,800; Starting P1
- Tyler Reddick – $9,200; Starting P15
- Erik Jones – $7,300; Starting P25
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $7,000; Starting P27
- Josh Berry – $6,400; Starting P35
Obviously, this is a clear two-dominator build but there are ways you can pivot to get Truex in there. But this has plenty of PD and laps-led contenders. It’s a good combination of upside and Tyler Reddick has some appeal if he truly can take advantage of the manufacturer change. Now to fit Truex you can simply pivot off Reddick and Berry for MTJ and Todd Gilliland. Or if you want to pivot off Berry for Corey LaJoie, you’d also need to move off of Erik Jones or Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Fortunately there are additional pivots like Austin Dillon and AJ Allmendinger that I’m comfortable with as well.
FanDuel
- Martin Truex Jr. – $13,000; Starting P5
- Kevin Harvick – $12,500; Starting P22
- Christopher Bell – $11,000; Starting P1
- Alex Bowman – $7,200; Starting P20
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – $6,000; Starting P27
Bowman’s a bit of a wild card in this lineup. He hasn’t had the best results since returning from injury. But there’s a great engine under the hood of that car and there’s still top ten upside. But we have two, maybe even three drivers, that can all contend to lead laps and finish top five while hoping Stenhouse can sneak into the top 15. Building lineups on FanDuel is always a challenge because you don’t need to spend every dollar. However, this lineup does only have $300 left over. Pivots could be made, but I’m content with how it looks and will enter it Sunday.
White Flag Thoughts Before You Go
Don’t forget that there will still be some drivers that are racing for points. I would absolutely reference the NASCAR Playoff Standings to get a feel for drivers that’ll likely race for stage points and who need a win. Also, take advantage of these NASCAR DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel while they’re still good. Once the 2023 NFL season kicks into gear we’ll see smaller contests on Sunday across the board. NFL reigns supreme and unfortunately, our NASCAR DFS contests fall victim to the gridiron. So get in now while the gettin’ is good. The top prizes are still worthwhile for now. And keep in mind this is the last intermediate track of the regular season. Variance increases at Daytona and road courses. Best of luck with your NASCAR DFS contests for the FireKeepers Casino 400!