Last week the NASCAR Cup Series gave us its 13th different winner of the 2023 season. Chris Buescher scored his third career win and it marked the second straight year Buescher was able to get the 17-car to victory lane for RFK Racing. His teammate, Brad Keselowski, also had a fast car and overall, it was a great day for the Fords. I was a little nervous putting so many Fords in last week’s NASCAR DFS Preview for the Cook Out 400. But all four Stewart-Haas Racing drivers finished in the top 11 so maybe they’ve turned a corner. Perhaps we’ll learn more this week at a track Kevin Harvick has been dominant at. Here is this week’s FireKeepers Casino 400 preview for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Michigan International Speedway plays host this weekend as there are only four races left in the regular season. This track is a large two-mile D-shaped oval that correlates pretty well with Auto Club Speedway. You need a lot of power in your engine to get up front and win at Michigan. Track history and overall speed on larger tracks this year are worth considering. But with just a handful of races left on the schedule, we do need to consider the drivers that may look to “point” their way into the playoffs. Only three spots remain for those drivers and if a 14th different winner is crowned, that’ll leave only two spots. Let’s take a look at some drivers ahead of this weekend’s action.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: The Top Picks
Kevin Harvick (#4 Ford)
I don’t think I’m as confident in this Fords this week as I was last week. However, Harvick is one driver we can back based purely on track history. He won this race in the NextGen car last year and he’s won five of the last seven races at Michigan. That’s pure dominance. He’s been by far the best Ford in the field in this tire code. He’s winless up to this point in the season, but remember, he was winless heading into Michigan in 2023. He scored his first win in a NextGen car at this track and has a good chance of winning again on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
It doesn’t even seem fair to consistently list Hamlin in the weekly NASCAR DFS preview. Alas, here we are once again. Hamlin has a pair of wins at Michigan, but they came over a decade ago. But Joe Gibbs Racing has brought a fast car for the 11-team the last handful of years at Michigan. Hamlin hasn’t finished worse than sixth in the last five races at this track. I also like that he won a high-horsepower race at Pocono just a couple of weeks ago. He led 38 laps in this race a year ago and the Toyotas have been very good on this tire code in 2023.
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
Larson tops the list as my favorite Chevy driver heading into the weekend. He once had a stretch of three straight wins at Michigan when he was with Chip Ganassi Racing. In his debut race at Michigan with Hendrick Motorsports he led 70 laps and finished third. You also have to wonder if he can get his revenge on Denny Hamlin for their run-in together at Pocono. Larson is a driver who has had speed in this aero package and tire combo, but the results haven’t been there. His teammate, William Byron, has arguably been just as good in this setup and is worth mentioning as well.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Bubba Wallace (#23 Toyota)
This aero and tire combo were money for Bubba Wallace in 2022. If it weren’t for some ill-timed mistakes by himself and his pit crew at times last year, he may have won a second race in addition to Kansas. Michigan was a race where he started on the pole a year ago, led 22 laps, and finished second. The Toyotas have crushed it in terms of speed and performance at these tracks and the 23-team should roll off the truck in great condition this weekend. I will also acknowledge that I like his teammate, Tyler Reddick, as well. Reddick hasn’t been great historically at this track, but a move to Toyota could give him a career-best result.
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
I have to give credit to Ryan at iFantasyRace for this gem of a tweet on Tuesday. We seem to lose track of Chastain because of the form since his win at Nashville. But Chastain has been fast on the high-speed intermediates this year including Auto Club where he led 91 laps and finished third. The concern we should have with Chastain is that the team might be experimenting with setups for the car since he’s locked into the playoffs. He’ll be a driver to keep an eye on during practice and qualifying because if there’s speed in those sessions he could be worth rostering on Sunday.
Alex Bowman (#48 Chevrolet)
Based on the season Bowman has had, we could arguably put him in The Sleepers section. But he still drives for Hendrick Motorsports so he’s hardly a sleeper. Bowman started P30 in this race a year ago and finished top ten. Like most drivers mentioned in this article, he’s been great in this tire combination as well. He finished eighth at Auto Club earlier in the year with 17 laps led and finished 12th at Charlotte after starting P31. It’s been quite a while since he registered a top ten so that could drive his ownership down in DFS.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: The Sleepers
Ty Gibbs (#54 Toyota)
That’s right, we’ve got another Toyota. Gibbs showed up with speed here last year and scored his first career top-10 on this track. I also subscribe to the theory that if you show up with speed at Pocono, you should just bring the same car to Michigan. Coincidentally enough, Gibbs grabbed a top-five at Pocono a couple of weeks ago. Gibbs’ results don’t line up with the speed he’s had on this tire combination, but the raw green flag speed has been there. He did win this race in the Xfinity Series a year ago and I do think he’s a dark horse this weekend to possibly score his first career Cup Series win.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)
Stenhouse has had one of his best seasons as a Cup Series driver. He kicked it off by winning the Daytona 500 and has since collected plenty of points as the season has progressed. Stenhouse finished 12th at Auto Club, was 7th at Charlotte, and 7th again at Pocono. He got into a wreck in this race a year ago, but we should have enough data from this year to infer that he could be fast once again this weekend at a high-speed intermediate.
Erik Jones (#43 Chevrolet)
This is more of a narrative play with Erik Jones. And with Legacy Motor Club joining Toyota in 2024, I might be a year early with this call. But Jones is a Michigan native and has been vocal about how much a win would mean here. Brad Keselowski feels the same way as a fellow Michigander. In the first race at Michigan in the NextGen car he finished eighth here in 2022 with five laps led. Prior to last week’s race, he had plenty of momentum. He even grabbed a top-10 at Pocono. After a rough start to the year, he’s turned things around. He’s a high-upside play to consider in NASCAR DFS tournament contests this weekend.