What a race we had last weekend at Kansas! Amidst the excitement of the Kentucky Derby, UFC 301, the NBA and NHL playoffs, and the Miami Grand Prix, the NASCAR Cup Series lived up to the hype at Kansas. The NextGen car doesn’t disappoint at that track. Kyle Larson scored the win by 0.001 seconds over Chris Buescher. There’s been some controversy about the accuracy of the photo finish. Even the paint job of the finish line has been questioned. But there’s no denying how strong and dominant Larson has been on the intermediates. This week NASCAR heads to Darlington Raceway. This is usually a fun race because NASCAR encourages the drivers to run some throwback schemes. So we’ll look to once again nail the dominators and squeeze the fastest cars into our NASCAR DFS lineups. Here is this week’s NASCAR DFS Goodyear 400 preview.
Darlington Raceway is a special track. This serves as one of NASCAR’s “crown jewel” tracks and it has plenty of history. The track is 1.33 miles in length with different banking and varying turn radii at each end of the track. It also features a lot of tire wear. That’s just another aspect of this track that makes it so difficult. And if you run too close to the wall you give yourself a good chance of collecting a Darlington Stripe. We’re also starting to get an early look at this week’s throwback paint schemes. Kansas is going to be tough to follow up. But Darlington is the kind of race that delivers plenty of excitement.
Goodyear 400 Preview: The Top Plays
Kyle Larson (#5 Chevrolet)
I’m not shying away from him simply because he won last weekend. And sure, he makes the preview articles quite often. But he’s one of the best drivers in the field. He has plenty of win equity most weeks. Larson has already won at Vegas and Kansas this year. Darlington isn’t similar in shape by any means. However, it is high tire wear and they’ll run the intermediate package once again. Moreover, Larson loves tracks like Darlington and Homestead. He manages his tires well and running the high line along the wall, while risky, is viable. Larson won here in the playoffs last year and has led a total of 767 laps in his last 10 races at Darlington. Similar to last week, we’re locking him in early on for Sunday’s race.
Denny Hamlin (#11 Toyota)
For the Goodyear 400 preview, we’re running out the same top two drivers as a week ago. Hamlin seems to get to the front every single week. Seriously, he’s led laps in every race this year. He’s already won three times in 2024 and he led 71 laps last week at Kansas while grabbing a top-five finish. Darlington is another track he can, and should, run well at. Hamlin has won four times at Darlington and despite the fact he finished poorly in this race in the playoffs, he led 177 laps and won the first two stages. And going back to the “dominator” theme, he’s led laps in each of the last eight Darlington races. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
William Byron (#24 Chevrolet)
Byron doesn’t quite generate the excitement of Hamlin or Larson but there’s certainly interest. Like Hamlin, he’s won three times this year but hasn’t looked as strong on the intermediate tracks. He did win this race last spring though. But he only led seven laps, didn’t have the best car, and it mostly served as justice after he was wrecked while leading this race two years ago. Similarly, he’s run very well at Homestead in the NextGen car so we can buy into him having speed and managing his tires well at the very least.
Goodyear 400 Preview: Wouldn’t Bet Against Them
Tyler Reddick (#45 Toyota)
Reddick and Larson have plenty in common. Their driving styles and strengths parallel quite a bit. These high-tire-wear intermediate tracks are perfect for both drivers. Reddick also prefers to run the high line along the wall and has looked strong at high tire wear tracks in the NextGen era. Larson may have won this race in the playoffs last year, but Reddick finished second with 90 laps led. With Richard Childress Racing in 2022, Reddick finished second and third at Darlington. He also finished third at Homestead last year and has three finishes in the top four in four races at that high tire wear oval. And remember Auto Club? Well despite it being demolished, Reddick did lead 90 laps with RCR back in 2022. He doesn’t have the win equity that Larson does, but the ceiling is similar.
Ross Chastain (#1 Chevrolet)
We haven’t seen the Watermelon Man get to victory lane yet this year, but there’s some potential it could happen at Darlington. In the last two spring races at this track, he’s had a driver rating over 100 in both outings despite wrecking. That’s actually impressive because typically a wreck will severely drag down the driver rating score. He led 26 laps here in the spring of 2022 and then led 93 laps last year at this track. He is starting to find his groove after leading 43 laps last week at Kansas so there is some “dark horse” appeal with Chastain this week.
Joey Logano (#22 Ford)
Once again, I’m not overly excited about the Fords this weekend. Even Logano has some warts we should be wary of. He was outstanding at Darlington in 2022. He won the pole for both races and even won the spring race even though he basically punted Byron to get back to the front. 2023 was a different story for the 22-team. He didn’t finish top 10 in either race and overall, defending the 2022 Cup Series championship was a struggle. To his credit, he had a strong showing at Homestead in the fall (he started P36 and finished eighth). He’ll definitely have to show us something during practice and qualifying. But I’ll definitely gain interest if he starts on the front row.
The Sleepers and Values
Erik Jones (#43 Toyota)
As far as the Goodyear 400 preview goes, Jones may not be a sleeper but I’m hoping there’s value. He missed the last two races with a back injury. He was actually cleared to race at Kansas, but the team went the cautious route and sat Jones an extra week. But he should return for this race. He has two wins in his career at Darlington, one with Joe Gibbs Racing and another with Petty GMS Motorsports, which is now known as Legacy Motor Club. Jones finished top 10 here in the playoffs last year and has plenty of upside. He’ll likely shape up as a solid tournament play. But be mindful of the variance. There’s a high ceiling and potentially low floor. Here’s to hoping the back injury doesn’t limit him this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (#47 Chevrolet)
If anything, Stenhouse has momentum on his side. He grabbed a top five at Talladega. Then he had arguably a top 10 car at Dover but wrecked in stage three. And last week he finished 16th at Kansas. We also know he does like the larger, high-speed intermediates. But Darlington is tricky. It’s the Lady in Black after all. In the four NextGen races at Darlington, he’s finished 16th or better in three of them while wrecking in the outlier. He also finished 12th and 10th in the last two races at Auto Club. He recently inked an extension with JTG Daugherty Racing so maybe the job security has him running a little better.
Todd Gilliland (#38 Ford)
Gilliland normally doesn’t jump off the page, but we can make a strong argument this week. In all four races at Darlington in the NextGen car, he’s finished better compared to where he started. In the last two spring races at this track, he’s gained at least 12 spots of PD and finished top 15 in both races. We’re also just a few days removed from him finishing top-15 at Kansas. If he starts outside the top 25, he should certainly be on our radar as a cheap option.
Justin Haley (#51 Ford)
You know it’s a weird week when I’m including Haley in the Goodyear 400 preview. In four races in the NextGen car, he’s finished top 25 in all four at Darlington. He even grabbed top 20’s in three of those races with top-eight finishes in both spring outings. Sadly, expectations need to be kept in check. Three straight top-10 finishes at the spring Darlington race is a tall order. But we’ve seen Haley provide value plenty of times before. Haley is coming off a top-20 finish at Kansas last weekend and the week before he was 23rd at Dover. He usually starts deep in the field so based off track history and momentum, he’s at least trending well as a driver we know will be cheap.