This week a collection of 16 CFF industry experts spent 4 days conducting two concurrent P5/G5 only, 22-round drafts. 704 players were selected in total with no Kickers or Defenses to water down the player pool. After performing several mock and best ball drafts using the full 130-team FBS player pool, this panel of experts was tasked with assembling a championship-caliber CFF team from a bisected player universe.
The active lineup starts 2 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 Flex/1 TE with the rosters restricted to 5 QB’s and 8 RB’s total to avoid position hoarding. Since this configuration views each half of the FBS as an isolated entity, it is important to reset our draft approach to fit the narrowed options available in these formats. How many 1,000-yard rushers/receivers are there in each? What does the average season look like from these 1,000 yard rushers/3,000 yard passers? How many targets does it take to reach those marks?
In the bullet points below, I detail the number of 1,000-yard rushers/receivers and 3,000-yard passers in each grouping along with the average production generated by these elite performers in 2019. I offer my analysis on my draft picks and how this data helped shape my draft strategy below.
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Power Five vs. Group of Five
FBS
- 35 – 3,000-yard passers
- 56 – 1,000-yard rushers
- 44 – 1,000-yard receivers
Power Five
- The P5 produced 19 – 3,000-yard passers
- 15 P5 teams averaged over 270 passing yards per game
- Those 15 teams averaged 319 passing yards and 35.5 points per game
- The 19, 3,000-yard passers averaged 3,618 yards/30.5 touchdowns
- 11 P5 Quarterbacks threw for 300 yards and 30 touchdowns
- 25 – 1,000-yard rushers
- 22 RB/3QB
- The 25, 1,000-yard rushers averaged 226 carries, 1,338 yards, 12.1 touchdowns
- 26 – 1,000-yard receivers
- The 26 receivers averaged 103 targets, 61 receptions, 1,178 yards, 10.7 touchdowns.
Group of Five
- The G5 produced 16 – 3,000-yard passers
- 16 teams averaged over 270 yards passing per game
- Those 16 teams averaged 300 passing yards and 32.6 points per game.
- The 16, 3,000-yard passers averaged 3,530 yards and 25.4 touchdowns
- 3 G5 Quarterbacks threw for 300 yards and 30 touchdowns
- 31 – 1,000-yard rushers
- 29 RB/2 QB
- The 31, 1,000-yard rushers averaged 222 carries, 1,227 yards, 9.7 touchdowns
- 16 – 1000 yard receivers
- These 16 receivers averaged 122 targets, 79.5 receptions, 1,178 yards, 8.25 touchdowns
Putting the Data to Use
Quarterbacks:
An important aspect of approaching each individual player pool is to set what is considered to be the baseline for the position you are targeting relative to their individual conference. The P5 quarterbacks have a slight edge on the number of 3,000-yard passers, 19-to-16, and yardage 3,618-to-3,530. However, the big advantage the P5 has over the G5 quarterbacks is the average touchdown pass differential of 30.5-to-25.4. A 20% margin in favor of the P5. Combine that with the fact 11, P5 quarterbacks threw for 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while only three G5 quarterbacks managed to achieve that feat.
Each league has two quarterbacks starting every week and a position max of five quarterbacks per team with no waiver wire in-season. With a reduced player pool, but still starting two quarterbacks a week in a pool of 65 teams, my strategy was to secure one of the consensus elite top-tier QB’s in the first 2 rounds and then address skill positions until I dive into the inevitable quarterback run when the top-30 QB pool starts to dry up. In the P5 league, I stuck to the plan and secured my second-ranked quarterback, Spencer Rattler, with the 4th overall pick in the P5 draft. In Lincoln I trust. HC Lincoln Riley has coached 3 consecutive top-5 CFF QB’s, two of which won the Heisman. I want the hand-picked successor to his 40+ PPG QB legacy everywhere I can get him.
I then gambled a bit, selecting eight consecutive skill players before picking Penn State QB Sean Clifford in the 9th round. Clifford was the very last of my preferred choices for QB2 duties and had I not gotten him I would have likely been at a disadvantage. In fact I stuck to my plan so heavily that I was the last of the 16-P5 teams to select their second quarterback. Oklahoma (42 PPG) and Penn State (36 PPG) both lead prolific offenses. I want my top-two QB’s in systems that produce 35 PPG at a minimum.
My QB3 is Ryan Hilinski who should throw a lot more now that OC Mike Bobo is in town from Colorado State where his offenses perennially averaged over 290 passing yards per game. I took a late stab on BC transfer QB Anthony Brown – Oregon in the 16th as all the quarterbacks with upside had evaporated at that point and Brown was the best lottery ticket who could win a high-profile QB battle. Spencer Petras serves as depth for a top-25 worthy Iowa team. You can only take so many chances in these formats as you want as many bites at the apple as possible each week.
In the G5 I was picking later in the first round, 14th overall as opposed to selecting fourth in the P5 draft. So I wasn’t sure if one of my top-five quarterbacks would be available but also was concerned with securing a top wide receiver given the lack of high end depth at the G5 level as will be discussed later. When my pick came up, top G5 quarterbacks Dustin Crum and Dillon Gabriel were available. I would have been content with either, so I decided to gamble that they wouldn’t be selected in the next 4 picks so I could select Arkansas State WR Jonathan Adams Jr.
Fortunately, I was able to select my G5 QB4, UCF QB Dillon Gabriel with my second-round pick. As stated in the bullet points above, the average points per game for the teams averaging over 270 yards passing per game is 32.5. I always target players from elite offenses with my early round selections since I want to be drawing from the biggest potential point sources available. UCF averaged 43.4 points per game last season and 316 yards passing per game. Dillon Gabriel will helm one of the top-5 offenses in the G5 once again, anchoring my quarterback room in the process.
For my QB2, I selected Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke with my fifth overall selection. Rourke takes over for his older brother alongside a talented 1-2 RB punch in the backfield and a solid 34.3 PPG offense as HC Frank Solich always fields a strong offensive attack. Rourke’s rushing ability and potential to score in the 35 PPG range again made him an obvious selection in the fifth. My preference was SJSU QB Nick Starkel, but Nate Marchese smartly snapped him up the pick right before me in the fifth, prompting the Rourke selection.
UAB QB Tyler Johnston is a steady QB3 playing for a CUSA conference championship favorite. David Moore is helped greatly by the expected delay to conference only play, as his suspension is up October 3 which is right around when the season is likely to start under a delayed opening. I lastly selected Carter Bradley simply because I can’t stand Eli Peters and think Toledo will turn the page to Bradley sooner than later.
Running Backs
I generally like to get a balanced start to my team, wanting to have one player at each position I can bank on before filling out the rest of my roster. From there, anything goes, but I like having a defined QB1/RB1/WR1 within the first four-rounds of these deep formats.
As is evidenced from the 31 1,000-yard rushers last season, I thought the G5 RB pool was the deepest group in the G5 draft. Having selected a WR/QB combo in my first two picks, I had to sweat out 26 selections before making my 3/14 pick. I was very fortunate to select Bryant Kobak with my third-round pick as the 16th RB selected. A Kentucky commit originally, Koback’s output was among the best in the G5 before being slowed by injury. An extremely elusive runner, Koback dodged 62 tackles (7th most among 2020 RB’s) in only 196 carries while racking up an excellent 3.90 yards after contact. So long as he’s healthy Koback will thrive for a rebuilt Toledo team that has led the MAC in recruiting for three straight years.
I then prioritized QB and WR the next three rounds before grabbing Jafar Armstrong in the seventh and Tre Siggers in the eighth. Armstrong is my favorite to take over the ND starting job after a promising 2018, but it could possibly be a 5-way quagmire until a lead back shakes out. His value was too appealing at the 7/14 pick to pass up. I love Tre Siggers and feel he’s one of the most underappreciated backs in the G5. In only 9 games he posted 150 carries, 850 yards, 6 TD while breaking 15 runs of 15+ yards and averaging 4.1 yards after contact. It doesn’t get more explosive than that, yet he went off the board as RB42.
In the 12th and 15th rounds, I selected the Air Force tandem of Timothy Jackson and Kaden Remsberg who combined for 1,795 yards, 5,9 YPC and 14 TD. Air Force’s ground attack racked up 298 rushing yards per game in 2019 while scoring 34.1 PPG. Jackson earned the starting FB role in early October and racked up four-consecutive 100-yard performances before getting injured against New Mexico. Remsberg rushed for 1,050 yards and 8 TD’s as Air Force’s starting half-back, pretty close to the average numbers of the 31 G5 1,000-yard rushers, and he went in the 15th round as RB80.
I rounded out my RB room by pairing Southern Miss backfield mates Kevin Perkins and Trivenskey Mosley in the 18th and 19th rounds. Perkins is a particular favorite sleeper of mine, as USM’s new OC is more run-oriented and Perkins quietly ranks as the 15th most elusive RB returning in 2020 according to PFF College. He’s also averaging the 16th best returning RB Y/CO average at 4.0. Perkins is being overlooked.
After taking Spencer Rattler with my first pick, I had to sweat out all the RB/WR’s flying off the board for the next 24 selections. I had already decided to go WR/RB on my 2/13 and 3/4 bounce-back, so I was thrilled to see my P5 RB8, Javian Hawkins, available with my second-round selection. With P5 having less 1,000-yard rushers to pull from, getting Hawkins and his 1,525/9 TD output was a relief. What he lacked in touchdowns, Hawkins made up for with explosiveness, as he leads all returning running backs with 29 rushes of 15+ yards last season. I see his touchdowns improving as he receives another heavy carry load similar to his 263 carries in 2019.
Much like many CFB prognosticators, I’m bullish on new OC Todd Monken’s ability to bring UGA into the modern era offensively. They’ve recruited too well for too long and a breakout appears on the horizon. As such, when my colleague Thor Nystrom and I conducted a six-round P5 mini-mock draft, I penciled in Zamir White to my fifth-round selection number 68 overall. As fate would have it, Zamir was still available and I selected the UGA starting RB at 5/68 to serve as my RB2. I see White coming close to the P5 average listed above for 1,000-yard backs, with the upside to potentially surpass that mark. I realize I’m optimistic here, but UGA is sporting an 80% blue-chip ratio and is likely going to win a national title in the next 3 years.
Two rounds later I selected Nebraska RB Dedrick Mills. Nebraska was the trendy 2019 pick to win the Big Ten but it was another middling effort in Lincoln for HC Scott Frost. This year they have an incredible first-half schedule that should bring forth a barrage of fantasy points. However, their second-half schedule is a gauntlet that includes Ohio State, Penn St, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota. I like the situation as much as the player as offensive guru HC Frost is in year three with an experienced QB and five OL returning, which is why I handcuffed Mills with incoming 247Sports 27th ranked 2020 RB recruit, Sevion Morrison, in the 21st round as insurance.
In what was perhaps my best value pick of the P5 draft, I selected Kentucky RB Asim Rose in the 13th round as the 58th RB taken. WR-turned-QB Lynn Bowden sucked-up a lot of backfield work after Terry Wilson got hurt, but Rose excelled when used rushing 147 times for 842 yards, 16 rushes of 15+ yards and a 3.9 Y/CO average that ranked 21st in the country among returning ball carriers. He’s an explosive runner in a run-friendly offense. I like the offense so I also backed up Rose with talented sophomore, and first-team Name All-American, Kavosiey Smoke.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
It’s hard not to notice the 26-16 differential between P5/G5 1,000 yard receivers. The P5’s superior firepower means there are fewer high-end WR options in the G5 and should be prioritized. The P5 wide receiver class was by far the deepest group in either pool in my opinion. As noted in the bullet points above, there is another interesting difference between the P5/G5 wide receiver groups. The P5 receivers are more explosive, needing only 103 targets/61 catches to reach 1,178 yards and 10.7 touchdowns. However, the G5 wide receivers receive 122 targets/79.5 receptions/8.25 touchdowns, offsetting the touchdown differential by accumulating 18.5 more PPR points on reception volume. The high usage rates of the 16, 1,000 yard wide receivers was an important factor when evaluating G5 WR starters.
As noted in my quarterback preview, getting one of my top 7 wide receivers was or paramount importance to my draft approach. I utilized my 1/14 first-rounder to select Arkansas St. WR Jonathan Adams Jr. As noted in my previous column, Arkansas St. is one of the premier passing teams in the G5, throwing for 312 YPG and distributing over 100 targets to three different receivers last year. The favorite to steal the majority of Omar Bayless’ 144 targets is Jonathan Adams Jr, but since I value the passing game of HC Blake Anderson so much, I then selected transfer Rosauud Paul in the 9th round. Paul’s selection gives me another talented Arkansas State 100-target option. I also threw a last-round flier on ASU slot receiver Brandon Bowling who recorded 12 recs/95 yards filling in for Kirk Merritt last year.
In similar fashion, I selected App St. WR Corey Sutton in the sixth round and handcuffed him with fellow App St. standout Malik Williams in the 13th round. Appalachian St. scored 39 PPG last season, good for fourth in the nation, and former Kansas State transfer Corey Sutton is the driving force in their passing game. Sutton only played in nine games but still managed to post 41 receptions, 601 yards and seven touchdowns on just 55 targets. He broke an absurd 13 tackles on just 41 touches while catching 74.5 percent of his passes and averaging an excellent 2.46 yards per route run.
A full season would result in a top-10 G5 WR performance. Jacquez Sloan in the 14th round was likely my best WR value selection of the draft, as Sloan is a threat to receive 100+ targets in Western Kentucky’s pass offense that unleashed 469 pass attempts in 2019, 21st most in the country. He also chipped in with two rushing touchdowns and is utilized as a multi-faceted weapon. Sloan should thrive in the WKU second wide receiver role that produced 106 targets and 76 receptions for Jahcour Pearson last season.
Gunner Romney rounds out the group and is a solid shot in round 21 considering he’s the de-facto WR1 in an offense that produced 285 passing yards per game last season. I selected Ryan Luehrman – Ohio in the 11th round as my TE1. I figure my QB Kurtis Rourke will likely have to lean on his established tight end as he’s getting acclimated to starting duties. Pairing Rourke with Luehrman, who caught five touchdowns last season in Ohio’s 34 PPG offense, made sense. I selected Aubry Payne in the 20th as my backup. He caught six touchdown passes last season in limited work for Georgia State.
In the P5, my 4th overall draft position meant I had to watch the elite receivers all taken by the time my second selection came around. I was hoping for Tamorrion Terry, but Mike Bainbridge took him right before my second-round selection. I opted to select RB Javian Hawkins with my second pick and instead wait to grab USC WR Tyler Vaughns with my round 3 selection since I had the next 5 receivers in a cluster. I see Vaughns inheriting Michael Pittman’s 133 target load from star QB Kedon Slovis in OC Graham Harrell’s air-raid offense.
I was pleasantly surprised when one of my favorite underrated WR targets, Terrace Marshall, fell to me with the 13th pick in the fourth round. Marshall was selected as WR21, where I had him ranked as P5 WR15. It’s important to remember Marshall missed 4 games last season and was hobbled for a few more thanks to a foot injury. When he got back up to speed in the SEC Championship and the playoffs, he caught five touchdowns in three games. With Justin Jefferson gone, expect Marshall to receive the lion’s share of his 123 targets and produce a 1,000 yard, 15 TD season.
In the sixth round, I couldn’t resist nabbing Clemson WR Joseph Ngata who is the lead candidate to take over WR1 duties in the absence of Tee Higgins and the injured Justyn Ross. Ngata dominated the 2019 Clemson spring game and saw meaningful game action in the playoffs. Clemson produced 288 passing yards and 44 points per game last season while returning iconic QB Trevor Lawrence. The potential for elite numbers is so pronounced, I selected Clemson WR Frank Ladson four rounds later in the 10th to corner the market on Clemson outside wide receivers. One of them will be a weekly WR3 starter.
In the eighth round, I took one of my favorite sleeper wide receivers in Travell Harris. Harris was superb in his limited opportunities last season, catching 47-of-58 passes, an 81-percent catch percentage. His explosiveness is evident as he broke 17 tackles, 9th most among returning receivers, on just 47 receptions. Harris averaged a superb 8.2 YAC which is 11th best among returning wide receivers with 40 or more receptions. At Hawaii in 2019, HC Rolovich and his staff targeted four wide receivers with 115+ targets. Travel Harris will receive 100+ targets in 2020 and perform as Wazzou’s best wide receiver.
Lastly, I selected Mississippi State wide receivers Malik Heath and JaVonta Payton in the 20th and 22nd rounds. Pretty simple reasoning, there had only been two MSU WR’s taken and Leitch’s Wazzou offense threw the ball 710 times last season. Three Wazzou wide receivers received 90 or more targets and there is no clear pecking order at MSU. If you’re going to take a late-round shot, might as well take it where the most targets derive from.
Similar to my Ohio QB/TE combo, I once again paired my QB Spencer Rattler with his fellow star 2019 recruit, TE Austin Stogner. With the retirement of Grant Calcaterra, his groomed replacement Stogner steps into a premium role for the 42 PPG Sooner offense. With Rattler being more pass-oriented than departed QB Jalen Hurts, I see Stogner getting more red-zone opportunities and targets in general than Calcaterra received last season. I’d love
Behind him is Baylor Cupp who was a top-3 rated tight end in last year’s recruiting class before being injured and forced to watch Jalen Wydermyer take over the starting role. Cupp is now healthy and ready to compete for his share of targets. Texas A&M may have the best 1-2 TE punch in the nation.
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