Some Fantasy Football selections simply aren’t worth the draft capital we may invest in them. They have not proven themselves yet, or are riding on past reputations. Others simply won’t match what they did in the past. These are the guys who you shouldn’t reach for when it’s too early. Here are the most overrated Fantasy Football players of 2019, based on FanTrax PPR Average Draft Positions.
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A Dozen Overrated Fantasy Football Players Heading into the 2019 season
Patrick Mahomes (27th overall ADP): Yes, he finished 63 points ahead of any other QB in 2018. But he is bound to lose the services of Tyreek Hill at some point this season, and he cannot rely on Sammy Watkins to stay healthy. A thinner WR corps could mean Mahomes comes back to the pack statistically this season and may not even be the top passer in Fantasy Football in 2019. You should wait on an alternative at a very deep position instead of taking Mahomes early in the third round.
Devonta Freeman (33): He was a disappointment in 2017 and his 2018 season was ruined by injuries. He also has previous concussion issues, and another one could really cloud his overall outlook. Freeman is just 5-8, 206 and has to prove again he is the same RB he was in 2015 and 2016, and that he can stay healthy. The third round is too early to risk a pick on him.
Derrick Henry (35): For the second season in a row, we will be hoping that late-season heroics can translate into a strong full campaign for Henry. He has only teased us before, and he was a non-factor from Weeks 4 through 13 in 2018. He does not catch any passes, either. I would not take him at the end of the third round, I’d rather opt for depth at WR.
Tarik Cohen (45): His workload may be reduced this season, as David Montgomery and Mike Davis will take over most of the ball carrying workload. Cohen may operate more exclusively as a pass-catcher and we could see his overall touches go down. Inconsistency will be a bigger issue for him in 2019.
Derrius Guice (49): This is a lofty ADP of sorts for a guy who has been on a long road to recovery from knee issues. Guice may indeed be ready for the 2019 season, but he could share carries with Adrian Peterson, who is not going away yet even though Fantasy players wish he would already. Chris Thompson is still in the RB picture, too. Guice may have the most perceived upside in the Washington backfield, but his workload, especially early on, could be uncertain.
Alshon Jeffery (61): There is no way I am taking Jeffery in the fifth round. He has been living on past glories over the past four seasons. During that span, he has never reached 900 receiving yards and he cannot stay healthy, having played a full season only once since ’14. He has also not caught more than 65 passes in the last four years. I easily take guys like Mike Williams and Robby Anderson over him, and they are being drafted after Jeffery, who has been one of the most overrated fantasy football players for a few years now.
Allen Robinson (63): How long are we going to chase 2015 with him? Mitchell Trubisky was inconsistent as a rookie, but Robinson did not step up as a primary playmaker should. He only had one game with over 85 receiving yards during the regular season. Robinson’s inflated reputation is based on one good season. If Trubisky improves, I would not be surprised to see Anthony Miller surpass Robinson as the Bears’ top WR.
Lamar Miller (65): He is in a contract year and the front office is talking him up. But last year, they wanted him to share carries with D’Onta Foreman and it did not happen because of injuries. Now that Foreman is healthy he will cut into Miller’s workload and could become Houston’s top RB choice near the goal line. I would not take Miller in the fifth round, as he could slip into mediocre flex status this season.
Eric Ebron (67): If you are drafting Ebron as the sixth TE off the board, you are looking backward and not forward. He is definitely overrated at this ADP that is based too heavily off his 2018 production. There is just no way he comes close to double figure TD receptions again. Jack Doyle missed 10 games last year and is now back to heavily cut into Ebron’s targets. Plus, newly acquired WR Devin Funchess is a new goal line area threat for Andrew Luck. I would not be surprised to see him score about half of the TDs he did last year, with six to seven. He will be inconsistent and unreliable outside of the scoring area as well.
Tevin Coleman (71): Even if he ends up being the No. 1 RB for the 49ers he will just be the top guy in a true committee situation. Coleman had a golden opportunity to show he could be a true featured RB last year in Atlanta, heading into an offseason where he could have been one of the clear top free agents on the market. But he rushed for just 800 yards and four TDs. His receiving totals did put him over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and he caught five TD passes, but he did not demonstrate that he could be anything more than a part-time back and he will get mired in a crowded backfield situation in 2019. The sixth round is too early for Coleman.
Baker Mayfield (80): He is the sixth QB off the board, ahead a more proven dual threat like Russell Wilson and a consistent top passer like Ben Roethlisberger. Jared Goff was also elite last year before he lost Cooper Kupp last year, and Kupp is back. In my estimation, all of those guys must be taken ahead of Mayfield, who still has to prove himself as a top Fantasy starter over a full season. Let’s not forget he had 17 turnovers last season. I am good with him in the Top 10, but I am seeing him being drafted as a Top 5 Fantasy QB, and he has simply not earned that kind of status yet.
Vance McDonald (92): Boy, how one impressive stiff arm on national television can drive up a guy’s Fantasy appeal. McDonald did not reach 50 receiving yards or catch more than four passes in his final 10 games last year. He only had four TD catches, with just one in his last six games. McDonald burst out early and then fizzled badly for an extensive stretch. Don’t draft him as a Fantasy starter.
Are you down with Scott’s dirty dozen overrated fantasy football players? Get more of The King with his full archive.
Scott Engel is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association’s Hall of Fame and a four-time award winner. He was one of the driving content forces in the rise of RotoExperts.com and was the lead host on the RotoExperts in the Morning for six years on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He was also instrumental in the launch of the FNTSY Sports Network. Scott was the first-ever Senior Writer and Managing Editor at CBS SportsLine and won a company Hall of Fame Award. He was also an Associate Editor and Fantasy analyst for ESPN.com. He has been the featured Fantasy Writer on Seahawks.com since 2012 and his work has been syndicated to the Associated Press, NFL.com, New York Daily News, New York Post, Yahoo Sports, Bloomberg Sports, Sports Illustrated and many others. He is a credentialed media member who won an FSWA award in 2016 for his Insider Fantasy Reporting. Known as “The King”, Scott is on Twitter @scotteTheKing
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