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AL Lineup Analysis 06/12

Just in time for your FAAB bids, here is my lineup on the latest news and trends for AL lineups. You can check out my most recent article for the National League here! Over the past week, the top five hitters from the American League have been Jake Burger, Byron Buxton, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alejandro Kirk. Please note that this article was written early Saturday afternoon. I will do my best to try and add any updates or breaking news that occurs Saturday night. Check out the latest on all 15 American League teams below!

American League Lineup Analysis

AL East

New York Yankees

Leave it to me to be patient with Gallo all season and as soon as I am ready to throw in the towel, he starts breaking out of his slump. Gallo has been great over the past week hitting three home runs with a .294 average. His strikeout rate is 50% over the past week, but by now we all expect Gallo to strike out a lot. The home runs are what matters, and they are finally starting to come. There have not been any changes to the lineup overall. Matt Carpenter has not started a game all week now that the team is healthy. He is nothing more than a bench bat at the time for New York.

Boston Red Sox

Kiké Hernandez landed on the IL this week. Surprisingly, the Red Sox did not call up Jarren Duran. They appear content rotating Rob Refsnyder and Christian Arroyo in for him. The Red Sox seem resistant to letting Duran get a chance and I am becoming concerned with his long-term outlook. This injury has resulted in both Franchy Cordero and Bobby Dalbec entering the lineup sometimes. Cordero can shift to the outfield which has opened playing time for Dalbec. Over the last two weeks, Dalbec has been swinging a hot bat and might be working his way back into the Red Sox starting lineup. This situation is worth monitoring as Dalbec has potential but has not ever put it fully together.

Toronto Blue Jays

In unfortunate news, Danny Jansen was placed on the IL again. This is the second IL stint for Jansen this season who cannot seem to stay on the field. Top prospect Gabriel Moreno was called up by Toronto. He played in his first big league game on Saturday. Moreno was a top 20 prospect in my rankings before he got called up. There are no doubts about his hit tool. The biggest question is whether the power will develop. Moreno has never hit many home runs in the minors but posts strong exit velocities. If I had to guess, the Blue Jays will be able to help unlock his power. I am skeptical how much Moreno will get into the lineup for 2022 with Kirk swinging the bat so well. Moreno will also likely be sent back down once Jansen comes back.

Cavan Biggio is still playing most days and batting ninth in the lineup. Biggio has continued to play well since being called back up from AAA. Since May 26 he is hitting .300 with an OBP of .447. Just as I said last week, he is worth a look in OBP leagues.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays placed Mike Zunino on the IL this week. Francisco Mejia will continue seeing everyday playing time. Mejia has been primarily batting seventh in the Rays lineup lately. He is batting just .225 on the season and .145 since May 7. Mejia has shown very little to prove he is worthy of a roster spot in fantasy. Vidal Bruján and Taylor Walls continue to play most days with Lowe and Franco on the IL. Neither player has been productive. Bruján has hit .148 and Walls .149 on the season so far. Bruján’s speed has always intrigued fantasy baseball players, but he is just 1/5 in stolen base attempts this year. If Bruján is incapable of stealing bases he has zero fantasy value.

Randy Arozarena has been red hot at the plate. Since May 14, he is batting .323/.366.570 with six home runs and four stolen bases. Perhaps most importantly, his strikeout rate has been below 21% during that span. Arozarena continues to move between leadoff and fourth in the Rays lineup depending on the matchups. No matter where in the lineup he is batting, Arozarena is an excellent threat to steal and hit home runs.

Manuel Margot has yet to attempt a stolen base since returning from the IL. This is worth monitoring closely as he is dealing with minor leg issues still. If this is going to impact his willingness to run Margot could have little fantasy value moving forward.

Baltimore Orioles

There have not been any significant changes to Baltimore’s lineup. Adley Rutschman is still struggling. However, he has posted a 22.7 LD% with an above-average exit velocity. His chase and whiff rates are also above league average. Rutschman will be fine and the long-term outlook for him has not changed. Now might be the best time to buy low in dynasty leagues on Adley. The stolen bases have started to slow down for Jorge Mateo because he simply is not getting on base. Since May 15, he has an OBP of .167 with a strikeout rate over 38%. I would not be surprised if he starts to lose some playing time due to how bad he has been playing.

AL West

Houston Astros

As has been the case for a while, there have not been any major changes to the Astros’ lineup. One small change is that Kyle Tucker has been batting fifth instead of sixth against righties. Tucker has been extremely hot over the past week and is an elite fantasy option for 2022 and beyond. Tucker and Yuli Gurriel have seemed to switch places. This is a slight boost to Tucker’s value, but not by much.

Los Angeles Angels

Anthony Rendon returned from the IL this week. However, the biggest news is that Mike Trout has missed several games with a groin injury. He has avoided a trip to the IL so far, but the situation is worth monitoring. Speaking of injuries, reports out of Anaheim are that Taylor Ward’s injury is only going to require a minimum stay on the IL. This is great news for fantasy managers who should expect Ward back next week.

Jo Adell was with the team since Ward went on the IL but was optioned back to AAA after Friday night’s game. I cannot understand the logic behind this move, but at this point, Adell’s 2022 value is extremely low. I was hoping the managerial change would lead to him getting more opportunities, but this has not happened.

Texas Rangers

When talking about the Rangers over the past week, the only name that matters is Marcus Semien. Semien has simply been unbelievable over the past week with four home runs, three stolen bases, and a .440 batting average. Semien has finally found his groove at the plate and fantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief. He has not been the only hot Ranger over the past week though. Since May 18, he has six home runs and is batting .343. The .343 average is not sustainable with a .375 BABIP, but the power breakout appears real. As I mentioned last week, he continues to pull the ball in the air with more consistency and should be rostered in all leagues.

Brad Miller returned from the IL this week. Since returning he has been batting eighth in the lineup. He figures to return to his platoon role only playing against righties. Since Josh Smith landed on the IL, the Rangers called up their other top prospect Ezequiel Duran. Duran ranked higher than Smith on my Top-115 prospects list coming in at 75th.  Duran was batting .317 with seven home runs and stolen bases in AA. I am a little bit concerned the jump from AA to AAA will be too much for Duran but so far, he has held his own, batting .273 with one home run. Although I am not rushing to pick him up yet, I am keeping an eye on him. He has been batting seventh or eighth in the lineup since being recalled.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners’ lineup has remained fairly consistent over the past week. Cal Raleigh is becoming a reliable source of power at the catcher position. He has locked down the everyday role and has four home runs since May 23. He has a barrel rate of 15.3%, an average exit velocity of 90.8mph, and has strong pull and fly ball rates. Raleigh should continue to see his average climb above .173 and should be a great source of power out of the catcher position.

Oakland A’s

Sheldon Neuse was optioned to AAA. He was a popular addition early in the year, but his early success wore off. Chad Pinder has been battling a neck injury and has not been in the lineup since early in the week. Tony Kemp has been leading off every day for the A’s. Luis Barrera’s hot streak has worn off and he is no longer playing every day. Jed Lowrie is also no longer seeing consistent playing time. Since May 22nd, he is batting just .150.

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AL Central

Kansas City Royals

The Royals have found consistency lately. Since returning, Michael Taylor has primarily been batting eighth in the lineup. Hunter Dozier missed three games this week with a side issue but returned to the lineup on Friday. While he was out, Carlos Santana received additional playing time. In the three games Dozier has been healthy this week, Santana has sat for two of them. Hunter Dozier has been solid offensively for Kansas City this season. He is the player standing in the way of Vinny Pasquantino in AAA. Pasquantino owners should watch Dozier’s production closely to decipher when he might get called up.

Edward Olivares started a rehab assignment on Friday. Olivares was swinging the bat well before he got injured. I doubt he will be able to find consistent playing time once he returns. In order to get Olivares in the lineup, the Royals would likely have to shift Whit Merrifield back to the infield and move Bobby Witt Jr. over to 3B. I doubt they will do this, and Olivares likely has very little fantasy value moving forward.

Detroit Tigers

Both Austin Meadows and Robbie Grossman returned to the lineup this week. Grossman has returned to the leadoff spot in the lineup, while Meadows has been batting in the middle of the order. Getting Grossman and Meadows back is big for the Tigers, but what their fans really care about is Riley Greene. Many are expecting Greene back sometime next week. I do not expect the Tigers to keep Greene down in favor of Daz Cameron or Derek Hill. Greene needs to be picked up wherever he is available. Jeimer Candelario landed on the IL, but is expected back after the minimum 10 days.

Javier Baez finally stole a base! That is about the only bright spot as he continues to be dreadful. I know you probably cannot afford to drop him, but he should not be in your starting lineup at this point.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are in desperate need of help. Danny Mendick was originally given the chance to lead off with Anderson hurt. Mendick has been batting .324 since Anderson got injured, but the White Sox have not been thrilled with him leading off. A.J. Pollock is starting to get a chance at the top of the lineup. Pollock has a strong track record of success in the majors and could have fantasy value if he can find his swing again. So far he is batting just .237 on the season.

Yasmani Grandal and Yoan Moncada have both moved down in the lineup. Moncada has been batting sixth with Grandal hitting seventh. Both players have been horrendous at the plate to this point, and I am not sure either one is worth rostering. Their names have more value than their production and it is likely they are hurting your team. I would be more willing to hold onto Moncada at this point as he is younger and still might be shaking off the rust after his injury.

Minnesota Twins

Carlos Correa returned to the Twins lineup this week. He has seemed to pick up right where he left off before landing on the COVID list. Byron Buxton has been on an absolute tear this week. Buxton hit two home runs in back-to-back games and five total over the past week. He has now hit safely in eight of his past nine games and remains a top fantasy outfielder this season.

Heartbreaking news out of Minnesota is that Royce Lewis will have season-ending surgery to repair a torn ACL. This is his second torn ACL in the past two seasons. This is unfortunate news for Lewis who looked like a blossoming star. Jose Miranda likely benefits from this unfortunate even the most. He now should have a solid hold on an everyday lineup spot.

Cleveland Guardians

Last week I said that Oscar Gonzalez is a name to keep an eye on. Gonzalez continues to dominate pitching and is now batting fifth in the Guardians lineup. The .449 BABIP is completely unsustainable, and he is not going to hit .393 forever. However, the ability to make solid contact is for real and he is one swing adjustment away from 30 home run potential. I would especially be buying in for dynasty formats if you can stash him on your bench. With Gonzalez moving up in the lineup, Owen Miller has moved down to sixth or seventh. Since the start of May, Miller is batting just .198/.252/.289. Miller’s hot start to the season came out of nowhere and the last month has proven it was unsustainable. I am okay dropping Miller if you picked him up.

Steven Kwan is the person who moves up in the lineup whenever one of the top four hitters gets a day off. Kwan will likely continue to be a streaky player. He makes contact at such a high rate that when the BABIP is high, and the baseball gods are working in his favor he will perform well. However, he has shown very little power so anytime the gods are not in his favor Kwan is going to struggle to produce.

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