The rebuild. It’s an inevitability for any dynasty manager and can be just as exciting as competing when handled correctly. It can also be a neverending nightmare of pressing the wrong buttons and clawing for relevance. In order to avoid such a cruel fate, it’s important to cut bait when the time is right. With that in mind, today I’m going to focus on three sell-high players that could help kick-start your rebuild and get your dynasty football team back in the money in no time.
3 Sell-High Players for a Dynasty Rebuild
Keep in mind that these sell-high players can create positive returns because they’re counted on to contribute big this season. Just remember that in a war of attrition, quantity is better than quality. Expect the pain and trust the process!
Mark Andrews, BAL, TE
You can put down your pitchforks. I am not here to knock the talent of the former John Mackey award winner. It’s just worth noting that Andrews earned this prestigious award for best college tight end in 2017. Also worth noting: he will be turning 28 two days before the start of the 2023 NFL Season.
Unfortunately for Andrews, the age-30 cliff is very real at TE. You might think that’s not true considering Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, Jared Cook, and others in recent memory have produced in their age-31 seasons and beyond. However, this doesn’t recognize the reality that having a TE1 is simply not enough to have an advantage at the position.
Don’t get out of bed for less than top-3 production at TE
Statistically speaking, TE is the position where fantasy production is most correlated with the strength of the opposing defense. This tracks, as an offensive game plan is going to depend heavily on exploiting mismatches.
Mixing and matching your way with cheaper TEs is a perfectly acceptable way to get to TE1 production. The real advantage comes from having a top-tier performer, as Kelce has been year in and year out. And unfortunately for Andrews, in the past 14 years, there have been only 5 seasons of top-3 production from a TE 31 or older.
The time to get off the train is now, with Andrews’ value peaking in a bad TE market. There are several undeveloped TEs now, but Kyle Pitts and Pat Freiermuth represent the future, and Brock Bowers looms in the 2024 NFL Draft as potentially the best TE prospect of all time.
People could quickly sour on old TEs if Darren Waller or George Kittle don’t excel in their age 30 seasons. Especially with Zach Ertz already dead in the water. You don’t want to be left holding the bag next summer, so sell high while you still can nail down top-30 value.
Saquon Barkley, NYG, RB
This wouldn’t be a sell-high article without mentioning one of the RBs seeking their second contract. If Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard being left in the cold with Barkley hasn’t made the picture clear, NFL GMs do not like old RBs. And you should likely follow suit.
Barkley may have only turned 26 this February, but he has been no stranger to injury in his five NFL seasons. He also trailed only Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs for touches last year. If the New York Giants plan to sign Barkley long-term, I doubt the plan will be to continue sending that kind of punishment his way.
It seems instead that the Giants are planning on wearing Barkley out before watching him walk. This, may bode well for this season, but doesn’t say much about what he will have left in the tank.
Will NYG have a top offense this year?
Brian Daboll has been a revelation as head coach for the Giants and can be rightfully credited for reviving Daniel Jones. But this is a unit that finished 18th in yards per game and 16th in scoring last year. While the draft saw some investment in the offense, the offensive line and receiver room are full of question marks.
There’s also a question of whether the defense can hold up. Football Outsiders predicts the unit to be 29th in DVOA after finishing 30th in PFF defensive grades for 2022. There may not be big leads conducive to RB success, even with Barkley reeling in 3-4 catches a game.
For a back that Football Outsiders also notes as 21st in DVOA, 15th by PFF player grade, and 16th in NFL Next Gen Stats’ Rush Yards Over Expected, this is not the environment for predicting success. Barkley’s comeback may end up being a peak year so sell high on the soon to be second contract RB.
Tyreek Hill, MIA, WR
Tyreek Hill might be one of the most valuable players in the league as the first non-QB to top $30M/yr. Last year, Hill led all receivers in fantasy points per route. That would make him a formidable asset even entering his age-29 season.
The problem? He was 32nd in routes run at the position in 2022.
The additions of Braxton Berrios and Chosen Anderson to Miami suggest this isn’t merely a blip for Hill who is locked in until 2026 with the Dolphins. And as someone who is as heavily dependent on speed as Hill, this problem could grow. After all, he led the league in deep targets last year. Losing a couple of steps would rip away the most impressive part of his game.
Is this the right time to sell?
For someone with the sky-high potential of Hill, it’s always difficult. We’re talking about a player coming off a career year who could be even deadlier with a fully healthy Tua Tagovailoa.
And ultimately, this is going to depend on where you are in your league. If this is the year to push in your chips, then to sell high shouldn’t be your priority in the least. But if long-term success is your goal, then you have to pull a year early rather than a year too late if you want to maximize your return. Tyreek Hill could certainly have another two elite years left in him.
But once you get that, that’ll likely be that. And you’ll be hoping for a second-round pick return at best. With Hill currently returning the likes of Drake London, 7.4 years younger, it may be worth it to leave the bird in the hand and go for the two in the bush.
Got a few sell-high players of your own in mind? Drop some names in the comments below. For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
GIVEAWAY ALERT! 🚨🏈
We are excited to be launching another giveaway, where ONE lucky winner will receive an Official NFL Travis Kelce Signed Jersey!
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023