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MLB Player Props for July 19

It is Wednesday, which means another edition of my favorite MLB player props. This week’s picks feature a pair of Same Game Parlays (SGP) and a Coors Field game. I expect some movement on these prices throughout the day, so make sure to shop for the best price where available. Adjust as you see fit and best of luck to all who are tailing!

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MLB Player Props for July 19

Chas McCormick OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-130, DraftKings)

When it comes to Chas McCormick, we have small sample sizes to deal with. However, there may not be an MLB player prop I like more than this one. McCormick has been tattooing left-handed pitching, particularly of late. This month, he has 11 hits in five starts against left-handers. That includes two games over the weekend where he had three hits and a homer in each game. Now he gets to face Austin Gomber in Coors Field. Giddy up!

McCormick has eclipsed this total base prop in seven of his last nine starts against lefties. He has a .604 slugging percentage against lefties this season. Gomber has been better against righties than lefties, but don’t let that fool you. He still allows a .565 SLG to right-handed hitters. Gomber also has a rather low 5.4 percent walk rate versus righties at home. This plays well into McCormick’s total base prop. Having said that, McCormick walked in both recent misses concerning this prop. His walk prop is currently at +170. It’s a solid hedge, and there’s even a chance he can hit both his total base and walk props. But for this column, the total base prop will be my only “official” pick.

McCormick has the highest Run-Value/100 among all 632 MLB players who have at least 50 plate appearances ending against four-seam fastballs. In his 66 plate appearances, McCormick is slugging .882. His xSLG is slightly lower (.729) but still elite. Gomber throws a four-seamer almost half the time to righties. It also might be the worst pitch in baseball. Of the 47 pitchers with 150 or more plate appearances ending in four-seamers, Gomber’s -2.3 Run-Value/100 is the worst. He allows a .658 xSLG on that pitch. Gomber’s other three pitchers are a bit better, but McCormick has a positive Run-Value on all three. Considering the matchup and ballpark, this is my favorite MLB player prop for Wednesday’s slate.

2-Leg Same Game Parlay: Masataka Yoshida 1+ Hits/Ken Waldichuk NO WIN (-134, Caesars)

Masataka Yoshida is one of the only hitters in baseball who may be hotter than McCormick at the moment. He has multi-hit games in 10 of his last 12 contests. One of those games was on July 9, when he homered in his only matchup versus Wednesday’s starter, Ken Waldichuk. I don’t know if we can get another homer out of Yoshida, but a hit seems more than likely given this matchup.

Yoshida is hitting .302 against left-handed pitching this year, so I am not worried about the same handedness. Besides, Waldichuk allows a .309 batting average to left-handed hitters. Waldichuk is a two-pitch pitcher against fellow southpaws. He throws a four-seam fastball and a sweeper. Yoshida has a 2.8 Run-Value/100 against four-seamers and a 3.1 mark against sweepers. Yoshida has hit fifth recently against lefties but may get bumped up in the lineup considering his hot hitting and the injury to Rafael Devers.

Waldichuk has not thrown 80 pitches in a Major League game since May. There is a very good chance he doesn’t even make it through five innings to qualify for a win. Even if he does though, Boston has a far superior team in every phase of the game. Brayan Bello will be on the bump for Boston on Wednesday. He has seven straight quality starts. Even if Waldichuk holds his own, I don’t see him getting a win here. Oakland has one of the worst bullpens in all of baseball, which helps both legs of this player prop. I expect Yoshida to hit safely against Waldichuk, but Oakland’s bullpen is a nice fallback. And if Waldichuk somehow leaves this game with a lead, there is a decent chance the Red Sox come back against the A’s beleaguered pen.

2-Leg Same Game Parlay: Ronald Acuna 2+ Total Bases/Ozzie Albies 1+ Hits (+127, FanDuel)

The Arizona Cardinals kicked a late field goal on Tuesday to upset the Atlanta Falcons, 16-13. Wait… that was a baseball game? Well, in that case, we need some exposure to a potential sequel, right? I think it is safe to say that the Diamondbacks and Braves will not combine for 29 runs on Wednesday. But that does not mean there are not some edges to exploit. I think this price will move throughout the day, so if you want it, it’s best to get in early. I have not seen this particular SGP at better than +110 anywhere else. To be honest, I would take it at that price also, so I feel like +127 is a gift.  

What can be said about the season Ronald Acuna Jr. is having? Well, for one thing, I was today years old when I discovered he is underperforming based on his Statcast metrics. The man is a beast, and I expect another big day on Wednesday out of the Braves’ superstar. Arizona’s starter, Ryne Nelson, is in the bottom 25 percentile or lower in just about every metric there is. The one thing he is pretty good at is limiting walks, especially to right-handed hitters. He has only walked six of 223 righties faced this year. But as we know, that only helps out the potential for a hitter like Acuna to accumulate total bases. Acuna has an xSLG of .535 or better against all three of Nelson’s offerings.

I generally prefer to play Ozzie Albies props when he is facing a left-hander. However, he has acquitted himself quite nicely lately against righties. It probably helps that Atlanta has not faced a right-handed starter in a month. Either way, Albies has at least one hit in 15 of his last 20 games facing a righty starter. Arizona’s bullpen has been hit hard of late, so I expect Albies to record at least one hit even if he does not manage to get to Nelson. Nelson’s walk rate does skyrocket versus left-handers (10.6 percent compared to 2.7 percent against righties). If that scares you off of Albies getting a hit, you can hedge by playing him to get a walk at +200 on DraftKings. Albies is 0-for-1 with a walk lifetime against Nelson.

My preferred pivot if you want to forego Albies completely would be Sean Murphy. However, it is not wise to play these player props on FanDuel before lineups come out, because they do not void if a player does not start but then enters the game. My hunch is that Murphy starts on Wednesday and then gets the day off Thursday. But I am much less certain of that than I am of Acuna and Albies starting. I am confident enough in both Acuna and Albies performing well enough to not have to make any contingency plans. I have locked that in as my third and final MLB player prop for Wednesday. 

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