With another week down, let’s keep things going. Our Week 14 picks had some issues in what was a tough week. Only our top pick, San Francisco limited the stress as Baltimore needed overtime to make us 2-2 for the week. Our third and fourth picks did not fare as well. Pittsburgh suffered an ugly home defeat on Thursday, and Miami closed out the week by blowing a lead of historic proportions. There are always exceptions to every statistic even if it takes 737 games to get there. On a brighter note, the New York Giants did come through as we were fading the Green Bay Packers. Now let’s jump into this week’s survivor picks.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 15 of the NFL season. Before the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 15 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
Where did that come from? Zach Wilson actually looked like the second overall draft pick he once was last week. The Jets defeated the Houston Texans in a performance that seemingly came out of nowhere. We know all about New York’s strong defense, but can we trust a repeat effort out of the Jets?
Things are going to be a lot tougher for New York this week against Miami. After a historic collapse against Tennessee, the Dolphins are going to be highly motivated to return to their winning ways. Trusting Wilson for a second straight week is going to be difficult. When these teams faced each other a few weeks ago, Miami won 34-13 in a clear representation of who the better team is.
The Dolphins rank first or second in just about every offensive category, and the Jets can’t afford to get in a track meet. New York does have a strong defense, but Tua Tagovailoa should be able to generate enough offense to come out victorious. Miami’s defense will also make things hard enough to keep Wilson from a second straight 300-yard game.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
While the Arizona Cardinals are coming off their bye week, it is not exactly a soft landing spot. The San Francisco 49ers take a five-game winning streak into this week’s game, and they are looking pretty close to unstoppable.
Kyler Murray has shown flashes since his return, but Brock Purdy is simply the better quarterback. Christian McCaffrey is one of the best weapons in football, and with Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle, there are a plethora of weapons to work with. It shouldn’t be surprising then that the 49ers are scoring the third most points in the league at 29.2 per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are even better. Not only do the 49ers jump ahead of their opponents but they don’t give them an opportunity to get back in the game.
The Cardinals are struggling offensively with just 17.7 points per game (26th in the league). This week we can’t expect that to change against the stingiest defense in the league. San Francisco is leading the league at just 15.8 points per game for an insane point differential.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders
Maybe their bye week helped, but the Washington Commanders are not in shape here. When we last saw Washington, they were in the process of losing their fourth game in a row. Traveling out west is never easy, and the Commanders have made it hard to trust them.
Washington is currently allowing the most points in the league at 30.4 per game. Additionally, they are worst in the league at 266 passing yards allowed. That ultimately plays to the strengths of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as the Rams should be able to control the flow of the game. While their defense doesn’t truly stand out, it is solid enough to keep them in the game and let Matthew Stafford and the offense do the work.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Last week the New England Patriots weren’t too kind to our survivor picks. This week we are going back to them, even though they are returning home. We have the news about Bill Belichick’s future swirling around, and are the Patriots actually any good? While Bradley Zappe might have given them a spark, we can also put Thursday’s victory more on the Steelers than the Patriots.
The Chiefs on the other hand are coming off a very contentious loss at home to Buffalo. To say they will be highly motivated here is an understatement. Patrick Mahomes is clearly the better quarterback and the Chiefs are certainly to more talented team. Not to simplify things too much, but Kansas City is easily the better team in all aspects of the game.
Games to Fade
With the majority of the games being evenly contested, for better or worse, there is nothing notable to fade with our survivor picks.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City
Line 2
San Francisco, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore, Los Angeles Rams
Line 3
San Francisco
Line 4
Miami
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