Last week marked my fifth consecutive fruitful column, as I went 2-1 with my prop picks. I also started Week 15 on the right foot by hitting all three of my Thursday Night Football picks. But apparently, I cannot retroactively include those picks in this article. What can I say? The people at Fantrax run a tight ship. Luckily, I have found another trio of player props that I believe will also be profitable for all of us. Hopefully, we can keep the positive vibes (and cash flow) going. I even snuck in an Under, which is always a crowd-pleaser. Remember to shop for the best prices whenever possible and bet responsibly. Now, without further ado, here are my top three Week 15 NFL player props!
Week 15 NFL Player Props
David Montgomery OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-114, BetRivers)
Dear Reader,
I can sit here and try to sell you on this prop by telling you that David Montgomery has eclipsed this number in seven of nine games in which he has played at least 20 snaps this season. But that would be a bit disingenuous of me. That is because Jahmyr Gibbs was not as big a part of Detroit’s offense earlier in the season. So, let’s focus on the past five games, during which Gibbs has been much more involved. Montgomery has still hit this number in three of those five contests and would have missed this by just half a yard last week. This week, he will face a Denver Broncos defense that appears to have turned a corner recently. However, appearances can be deceiving.
In their last five games, Denver has allowed opposing running backs to gain 574 yards on 109 carries. That is a 5.27-yard clip. For the season, the Broncos give up the second-most adjusted line yards per carry and the sixth-most yards before contact per carry. Meanwhile, Detroit’s offensive line ranks second in both metrics. Among 40 running backs with at least 100 carries this year, Montgomery ranks 12th in yards per carry after contact and eighth in both Pro Football Focus’ elusive rating and missed tackles forced. I expect Montgomery to get plenty of work based on the matchup, but also because doing so should protect the offense from too much exposure to Jared Goff, who has been a bit shaky of late. Give me David Montgomery to exceed his total rushing yardage prop on Saturday night as my first Week 15 NFL player prop.
Kyler Murray OVER 246.5 Passing + Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings/ESPN/MGM)
I admit that tailing this prop may require a bit of a leap of faith. The San Francisco 49ers are the best team in the NFL, and they have made a habit of making opposing quarterbacks look bad. Having said that, I think there are avenues for Kyler Murray to at least put up some numbers this week.
Murray has played well in limited duty since returning from an ACL tear in Week 10. He enters Week 15 with the ninth-highest EPA among 38 quarterbacks with at least four starts. Murray has generated at least 258 total yards in three of his four games played thus far. The only time he failed to hit that number was last week in a game that Arizona won by 14 points. I am well aware of the “Any Given Sunday” mantra in the NFL. And I know that the Cardinals beat the Dallas Cowboys by 12 points earlier this year. But they are not beating the 49ers by 14 points this week. I believe that Arizona should be playing from behind, which would give Murray plenty of chances to make plays both through the air and on the ground.
Though I expect San Francisco to control this game, injuries throughout their defense may make this matchup a bit more palatable than it would normally be. The 49ers will already be without dynamic safety Talanoa Hufanga and linebacker Oren Burks. Interior linemen Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave are questionable, as is top cornerback Charvarius Ward. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw has yet to practice this week, though he is expected to play. In a game that San Francisco should win handily regardless of their injuries, it would not surprise me if some of these players either sit out this game or play a reduced role. Between game script, garbage time, and perhaps some injury luck, I think there is value in betting on Kyler Murray to generate offense with both his arm and legs in this matchup.
Gabe Davis UNDER 2.5 Receptions (+102, BetRivers)
Sweating an Under on an NFL player prop is certainly not the most fun way to spend three hours. And it is not exactly my modus operandi either. I have made three picks in this column each week, and this will be my third Under this year. But guess what? I am 2-0 on those picks, and both are related to this prop in some form or fashion. In Week 8, I picked Puka Nacua to have fewer than 6.5 receptions against the Dallas Cowboys. He finished with three. In Week 11, I picked Gabe Davis to have fewer than 40.5 receiving yards against the New York Jets. He finished with zero. Now, Davis is facing the Cowboys. Of course, it is not as simple as that. However, I do believe Davis will fall short of expectations in this matchup for several reasons.
Gabe Davis lines up out wide on about 84 percent of offensive snaps. That means that on a vast majority of snaps, he will face either DaRon Bland or Stephon Gilmore. Both outside cornerbacks for Dallas allow a catch on only 54 percent of targets, compared to 72 percent for slot corner Jourdan Lewis. More importantly, the Cowboys play man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. That has been Davis’s kryptonite this year. Buffalo has played seven games this season against defenses that play man coverage at a top-10 rate. Here are the reception totals for Davis in each of those games:
Week 1, at New York Jets: 2
Week 3, at Washington: 1
Week 6, vs. New York Giants: 3
Week 7, at New England: 1
Week 9, at Cincinnati: 0
Week 11, vs. New York Jets: 0
Week 14, at Kansas City: 0
That is a total of seven receptions in seven games, with none in his last three games against man-heavy defenses. In his other six games played this year, Davis has 32 total receptions.
I also think that Buffalo would be wise to continue to feature the running game as they have done in recent weeks. Dallas has been somewhat susceptible to the run in recent weeks. Leaning on the running game would benefit the Bills by keeping the Cowboys’ explosive offense off the field. This game also features Stefon Diggs taking on his brother Trevon’s team. Though Trevon will not be playing, we know Stefon will want to atone for his recent quiet play and earn some bragging rights in the process. When Buffalo does throw the ball, Davis will likely be an afterthought. There is also the potential for weather issues in this game, which would not suit Davis and his 14.25 aDOT well. That mark is the fourth-highest among 55 wide receivers with at least 60 targets this season.
Given everything involved, I am surprised this number sits at 2.5 instead of 1.5, and am kind of shocked that the Under is at plus-money. Of course, that guarantees us nothing. Still, I am jumping on this Under. This is easily my favorite Week 15 NFL player prop.
Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End | Half-PPR by Position | Flex Rankings | Positional Ranks w/ K & DST | Dynasty | Superflex Dynasty