With another week down, let’s keep things going. Our Week 13 picks did go 3-1, but if you have been following along since Week 1, it was not a good week. Monday night did not according to plan as Jake Browning led the Cincinnati Bengals to an unlikely upset on the road of the Jacksonville Jaguars. A missed field goal and late-game injury to Trevor Lawrence certainly didn’t help here. While the process was good, the result was not and ultimately is all that matters.
As the season continues, the good news is that we begin to receive more information to help with the decision-making process. Let us move forward and look at survivor picks for Week 14 of the NFL season. Prior to the season, I broke down some survivor pool strategy tips, and now it is time to put that into action.
Each week throughout the season, I will break down both survivor picks I am tailing and fading. They will be ranked in ascending order of confidence. Some weeks will have more options than others based on the schedule, the teams we have taken, and the point in the season that we are at. Based on that, the direction of the picks will change throughout the year. As the season progresses, we will be forced to take more risks. Ultimately though, the methodology should remain the same.
The assumption is that we will be working off four lines each week. My picks for each line will be broken out, as team scarcity will come into play the further we get into the year.
Week 14 NFL Survivor Picks
Games to Tail
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
The fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers have a clear advantage under center is certainly telling. With Kenny Pickett sidelined, Mitch Trubisky is now under center for the home team and we should see a slight improvement. Even with Pickett’s struggles though, the Steelers are still 7-5 on the season. They do have a solid running game with Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren working in tandem, but it’s ultimately their defense coming through.
While not impressive from a yardage perspective, Pittsburgh’s defense ranks sixth in the league with just 19 points allowed. That doesn’t bode well for a New England offense in disarray. Not only are the Patriots missing multiple wide receivers, but Rhamondre Stevenson is also sidelined. Mac Jones’ struggles led to Bradley Zappe taking over under center, but things did not get much better. At 12.3 points per game, the Patriots are last in the league. Perhaps the most telling, is the fact that the Patriots were just shut out at home by a Los Angeles Chargers team that struggles on defense.
This likely will not be a very exciting game, the over/under is just 30.5, but it’s hard to see how New England can compete.
Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans
With good reason, we have already utilized Miami on multiple lines, but they are one of the most attractive survivor picks of the week. The Dolphins are favored by 13 points at home against the Titans, and they are simply the stronger team.
While the Titans’ defense is essentially league average, that is not going to be good enough against perhaps the most prolific offense in the league. Miami ranks first or second overall in yardage while scoring 32 points per game. Scoring the second most points in the league has certainly made things easier on their defense, but the Dolphins are limiting teams to just 204 passing yards per game.
Will Levis will have issues attempting to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill this week. That doesn’t make him unique as the Dolphins sit atop the AFC East at 9-3, but it is why we feel confident here. The good news for Tennessee is that Derrick Henry appears to be ready to go, Tagovalioa and company will quickly remove that aspect of the Titans’ game plan.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams
Baltimore is always a tough place to play, and with the Rams taking the field at what is essentially 10 AM, things will be even more difficult. While Kyren Williams has been a pleasant development, Los Angeles’ success is largely dependent upon the passing game. This week though, things will not be as smooth.
The Ravens are allowing the fewest points overall this season at 15.6 and the Rams will be the latest team to struggle this week. Matthew Stafford is a solid quarterback, and there is no doubting some of his weapons, but there will be too much resistance. With 159 rushing yards per game, Baltimore also does a great job of establishing tempo and game flow. Los Angeles’ defense is also not as fierce as they have been historically, which means Lamar Jackson is in position to lead the Ravens to victory.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
There is nothing like a rematch with just the venue swapped. In what is supposed to be a tough place to play, the 49ers won 31-13 without any issue. Now, the 49ers return home to face the Seahawks as two teams in completely different directions. While the Seahawks are in the midst of a three-game losing streak, San Francisco brings a four-game winning streak into this week.
The 49ers are even hotter considering their resounding victory in Philadelphia last week against the Eagles. San Francisco is simply playing some of the best football in the league right now and they don’t appear to be a team that is slowing down. This is a case of targeting the best team with our survivor picks.
Games to Fade
Green Bay Packers vs. New York Giants
Yes, Jordan Love has been playing well. Additionally, we aren’t overrating Tommy DeVito and chicken cutlets. But at the same time, we can’t completely ignore momentum.
DeVito has led the Giants to a victory in each of their last two games, and New York is also coming off their bye week. By no means do we need to get crazy here, but home-field advantage could come into play. Monday’s game could be closer than expected and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the home team extend their winning streak.
Survivor Picks
Line 1
Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas, San Francisco
Line 2
San Francisco, Dallas, Miami, Baltimore
Line 3
Los Angeles Chargers, Miami
Line 4
Pittsburgh
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