Sometimes you need to plant your flag on certain players. It’s still important not to reach too much for them, but there are certain players who constantly look like values at their respective ADPs. These are the players I’m not afraid to continue drafting at or past ADP. Here is the top player with my highest best ball exposure at each position thus far heading into the 2023 NFL season (ADPs used are from Underdog Fantasy).
My Highest Best Ball Exposures at Each Position
QB: Lamar Jackson
- Current ADP: QB4, 34.8 overall
My highest best ball exposure at quarterback is none other than Lamar Jackson. It’s honestly quite baffling to me that he’s currently being drafted more than a full round behind Patrick Mahomes and over a half-round behind Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. After all, Jackson set the single-season record back in 2019 for most fantasy points per game (PPG) by a quarterback…ever. Okay, so that was “way back” over three years ago. How about the fact that Jackson was the QB1 in fantasy PPG from Weeks 1 to 4 last year prior to Rashod Bateman‘s foot injury? Oh, and have I mentioned that Jackson accomplished all this with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator, under whom the Ravens’ offense never ranked higher than 22nd in neutral situation pace?
Heading into 2023, Jackson has arguably the best wide receiver corps of his career with Bateman hopefully back healthy plus the additions of Odell Beckham in free agency and first-round rookie selection Zay Flowers. He should also benefit from a change at offensive coordinator. Todd Monken’s offenses have been far more fast-paced overall than Baltimore’s offense under Roman, and pace has already been an emphasis during training camp. It doesn’t hurt, either, that the Ravens’ offensive line is projected to once again be a top-five unit in the NFL. The stars seem to be aligning for Jackson to have another MVP-caliber season barring injury. I have Jackson ranked as my QB1 over Mahomes, Hurts, and Allen for 2023, and he’s a steal at his current ADP.
RB: De’Von Achane
- Current ADP: RB38, 116.8 overall
The Dolphins have been in talks with Dalvin Cook and could still sign him prior to Week 1, but what if I told you that it doesn’t matter? De’Von Achane is a sub-190 lb. running back who doesn’t project to be a workhorse, nor should he be. The explosive rookie is an elusive runner who has game-breaking sub-4.40 speed to break big runs on limited carries and who projects to be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield after having logged a 93rd percentile college target share. Even if Cook were to join Miami’s backfield, he projects to take more early-down work away from Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert. Achane is best utilized as a pass-catcher in space, and he can hit long home-run touchdown plays on limited carries.
On top of his big play ability, there’s a non-zero chance that Achane could still lead this Dolphins backfield in touches in 2023. After all, he boasted a 91st percentile college dominator rating even in the SEC at 188 lbs. While he doesn’t fit a traditional “lead” running back archetype, it’s worth noting that Achane averaged more carries per game in college than Jahmyr Gibbs, who’s also sub-200 lbs. And yet, drafters seem to have far fewer concerns about Gibbs, who’s being drafted nearly six whole rounds earlier in the late-third. Achane is a massive value at ADP regardless of whether Miami were to sign Cook, and I’ve already written more about how he’s a discount version of Gibbs being written off due to lack of size.
WR: Marquise Brown
- Current ADP: WR32, 60.9 overall
From Weeks 1 to 6 last year while DeAndre Hopkins was suspended, Marquise Brown was the WR6 in 0.5 PPR and the WR8 in 0.5 PPR PPG. Now Hopkins is in Tennessee with Brown as the No. 1 wide receiver in Arizona, and yet Brown is being drafted as the WR31? Make it make sense. Yes, the Cardinals are going to be bad this year, but a lack of scoring efficiency can be overcome by volume in fantasy, and that’s exactly what Brown is projected for: lots and lots of target volume. In those first six weeks last season, Brown averaged 10.7 targets per game, and that was before Arizona further dismantled their defense this offseason.
Regardless of whether Kyler Murray is ready to start the season, Brown still projects for 150-plus targets in 2023. Even if many of those are off-target from a less-than-100% Murray, Colt McCoy, or Clayton Tune, Brown projects as a fantasy WR2 purely on volume. The Cardinals ranked 21st against the pass last year and project to again be a bottom-10 defensive unit, possibly even the worst in the league, which will force the offense into shootouts and catch-up game scripts even if ownership is looking to tank for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. And remember, this is all assuming that the Cardinals’ offense will be as bad as their defense and overall team outlook. There’s a non-zero chance that Murray could return earlier than expected, and the offense outperforms expectations like Seattle’s did in 2022. In that scenario, Brown would be a true league-winner with top-10 fantasy wide receiver upside.
TE: Dalton Schultz
- Current ADP: TE13, 137.5 overall
Dalton Schultz isn’t an elite talent at tight end, nor will he be a league-winner in fantasy. That said, he is an excellent value at his current 12th-round ADP. Let’s examine the Texans’ depth chart heading into 2023. Brandin Cooks and Chris Moore, their two leading receivers from 2022, are both gone. Replacing them will be a mix of unproven, young wide receivers and aging veteran Robert Woods. Houston’s most-targeted tight end from last season, Jordan Akins, is also gone. It’s easy to see why the Texans lead in the NFL in vacated targets and target share from 2022. They also lead the league in vacated target share from inside the 10-yard line from last year, which is where Schultz comes in.
Last season with Dallas, Schultz saw the sixth-most red-zone targets and the fifth-most targets inside the 10-yard line among tight ends. While the logo on his helmet has changed heading into 2023, Schultz’s role should remain similar as a red-zone and goal-line threat for Houston’s rookie quarterback. Although the offense may not be as efficient under C.J. Stroud as the Cowboys’ offense was with Dak Prescott, Schultz will also be facing far less target competition. There’s a chance that one of Nico Collins, John Metchie, or one of the rookie wide receivers could emerge in Houston, or perhaps Woods could have a bounce-back year, but Schultz has a real chance to lead the Texans in targets and receiving touchdowns in 2023. And if you believe in the narrative of players in contract years excelling, Schultz is on a one-year, $6 million contract with plenty of motivation to produce as he looks for a big payday next offseason.
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For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!
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