Did you get Lance Lynn’ed on Saturday? You know what I’m talking about. He was cruising through three innings against the Seattle Mariners only to have the game suspended due to rain and have Dallas Keuchel come in after the game resumed the next day. Someday 20 or 30 years from now, every stadium will have a retractable roof of some kind and we won’t have to worry about this nonsense. But for now, weather remains the most under-leveraged part of MLB DFS. Which games have good hitting weather? Which ones are weather risks where you can guess right when the masses may be avoiding? Do you fade those or not? Which stacks benefit from the wind blowing out in the right direction? If you don’t already, make weather analysis a part of your DFS preparations.
This biweekly MLB DFS piece will look ahead to upcoming series with an eye towards which bats to Stack (rostering multiple players from the same lineup, a key to DFS success) and which bats to Fade (recommended spots to avoid, based on the data). I will also look at pitchers with Potential (high-upside hurlers who might save you a little salary) and arms to Avoid (perhaps pitchers who look promising on the surface but have difficult waters to navigate in the games ahead).
It looks like chalk week at Coors coming up, with temperatures in Colorado soaring and reasonably priced Rockies and Pirates on deck. Boston bats and Astros stacks will also likely be very popular this week, as will Houston and Toronto pitchers. Let’s look at what might be signal and what might be noise as we build our rosters and try to differentiate this week.
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MLB DFS Look Ahead: June 28–July 1
Bats to Stack
Cleveland Indians (vs. DET) – In my season-long leagues, I have happily rostered Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal in a number of places this season, as they have been solid contributors. Both just polished off strong performances against the Houston juggernaut offense this weekend, just for good measure. But all that goodwill is about to fly out the window with Matt Manning, Jose Urena, and Wily Peralta scheduled to toe the bump the next three days.
This brings an often-forgotten Indians offense to the forefront of my stacking plans this week. What should encourage us the most about stacking the Indians the first half of this week is how frequently the Tigers pitching staff puts men on base and then how infrequently they strike batters out. Detroit ranks last in the league with a 19.2% strikeout rate among their starters and they are also in the bottom ten in most walks allowed at 8.3%.
But if you thought that maybe the starters won’t last long and the bullpens will stabilize things, think again! The Detroit bullpen also ranks bottom ten in strikeout rate and walk rate. Combine this with the fact that Detroit pitchers allow the fourth-most hard contact in the league this year and you have a recipe for DFS success. Jose Ramirez is the only Cleveland player above $3,500 on Monday on FanDuel, so it should be very easy to make a secondary stack of Indians to complement your other chalkier picks.
Bats to Fade
Chicago Cubs (@ MIL) – The Cubs’ bats just can’t catch a break right now, having been limited to five runs in three games against Kershaw, Urias, and Gonsolin, and now line up against perhaps the toughest pitching trio in the majors. Tonight they hop on a plane from Los Angeles to Milwaukee and have to face Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, and Corbin Burnes in the coming days. And in a series that has much bigger ramifications than how you and I fare in MLB DFS, the Cubs will be looking to try and make ground on a Brewers squad that has built a three-game lead in the NL Central.
The flaws in the Cubs’ offense were glaring in the weekend series against the Dodgers. They struck out 45 times in those three games. That’s a lot, right? To put that in context, Tony Gwynn never struck out 45 times in an entire season. Former Cub-destroyer Albert Pujols has multiple full seasons where he struck out less than 55 times.
On the season, Chicago has the fourth-worst strikeout rate in the majors while the three pitchers they are about to face each rank in the top 20 in K/9 this year. These free-swinging ways with low contact have also put the Cubs 23rd in the majors in on-base percentage. They do, of course, have some pop in their bats. They rank second in the majors in HR/FB rate on a solid 35.8% flyball rate. But the problem here again, is each of these three pitchers rank in the top 25 among all starters in allowing the fewest longballs.
Even with a couple of interesting pieces at the Brewers’ park, the Cubs stack will be a fade for me in the days to come.
Pitchers with Potential
Oakland Athletics (vs. TEX) – If I asked you to guess the 12 pitchers who have at least 10 quality starts and at least 80 strikeouts so far this season, you would guess most of them. Cole, Bauer, Buehler, Woodruff, Bieber, Kerhsaw, Wheeler, and maybe Gausman. There are a few surprises in there as well, but perhaps none more surprising than Chris Bassitt.
Bassitt (Wednesday’s starter) and Sean Manaea (Thursday’s starter) have combined to form a 1-2 punch that has become one of the most formidable in baseball and have Oakland comfortably in the playoffs at the moment. But they are just part of a larger group of starters that may not have the star name recognition but have been under-the-radar one of the best staffs this year. Oakland’s starters rank 10th in ERA and 11th in FIP this year despite not having a name that you would consider in the upper ranks of MLB arms.
How are they doing it? By limiting baserunners, first of all. Oakland’s starters rank third in MLB with walk rate at just 2.49 walks per nine innings. Their pitchers pound the strike zone (first in MLB in Zone%) early and often. They also rank second in first-pitch strike percentage this season, getting batters into undesirable counts early in the at-bat.
These strengths align perfectly with the matchup against the Rangers, as Texas ranks 22nd in walk percentage this season and is next to last in zone contact percentage. Aided by a spacious home park, Oakland pitchers should be a primary focus of your DFS builds this week.
Arms to Avoid
Seattle Mariners (@ TOR) – Remember the list from above? The pitchers with at least 10 quality starts and 80 strikeouts this season? Well, the other big surprise on that list besides Bassitt ends up being in the same division: Yusei Kikuchi. In addition, Chris Flexen has been flexin’ his muscles his last three turns in the rotation, allowing only four earned runs with 17 strikeouts in his last 21 innings pitched.
But on the road in Toronto this week, I can’t recommend risking that those trends continue, especially against an offense as powerful and as hot as the Blue Jays. Toronto has smashed the opposition for 31 runs in their last four games, and gets to continue with the “home” cooking as they finally look to be at full strength.
Since June 13th, Toronto is a top-five offense by any metric you can possibly consider: wOBA, wRC+, SLG%, OPS, ISO. You name it, they have been just about the best at it the past few weeks. The first game this series against right-hander Flexen especially worries me. Toronto is first in MLB this year in SLG% against right-handers and their wOBA is second to only the Astros.
Despite salaries that will look appealing, the Mariners pitchers will be a fade for me this week.
Data Sources: Fangraphs, Baseball Savant
For more great Fantasy Baseball check out Mick Ciallela’s Rest of Season Rankings! Mick was the No. 1 Ranker on FantasyPros.com for the 2020 MLB season.
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