This week we’ll take a look at some potential fantasy busts in the upcoming NBA season. Some of these guys are still worth drafting, but won’t meet the expectations that have been set for them. Generally speaking, I’d avoid taking these guys unless they really plummet on draft day. Whether it’s because of injuries, a new role on a new team, or guys being taken on name recognition, there’s plenty of reason to avoid all five of these guys. If you have any questions, feel free to ask me on Twitter @JonSauber.
The First Fantasy Bust: Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (ADP: 44.2)
Look, I love Joel Embiid as much as anybody. He’s a transcendent player when he’s on the floor and puts up the numbers of a legitimate All-NBA player. The problem is, he’s never on the floor. Embiid has played 31 games in three NBA seasons, and we still don’t know if he’s going to be ready for the 76ers’ season opener. That alone should scare some fantasy owners off, but to this point, it hasn’t. I get it, if he plays he’s a top-20 fantasy talent. But if he doesn’t, he’s legitimately irrelevant. With the additions of JJ Redick, Markelle Fultz, and Ben Simmons to the rotation, there’s even some reason to believe that his usage, and therefore his scoring, could take a hit this season.
Brook Lopez, Los Angeles Lakers (ADP: 44.05)
This one is a bit perplexing to me, based on the guys going after Lopez. Some names going after Brook Lopez, according to Fantrax ADP: Ricky Rubio, Devin Booker, Otto Porter, Khris Middleton. I could go on, if you’d like. This makes zero sense to me. All of those guys have way more fantasy upside than Lopez and don’t have the uncertainty that he does. Lopez has done well to avoid injury these past few seasons, but we don’t know what his role will be in Los Angeles. He’s going to start, but he’s going to be the Lakers’ third offensive option, and even that might go to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Lopez’s best contributions will be his shooting from deep, and that’s not enough to justify his current ADP.
Jeff Teague, Minnesota Timberwolves (ADP: 52.35)
This seems like a guy being drafted on name recognition more than anything else. Teague was the second highest scorer for the Pacers at 15.3 points per game last year, while adding 7.8 assists per game. He’s unlikely to be more than the fourth offensive option for the Timberwolves, which is a drastic drop for Teague. I’d much rather have Jrue Holiday at this spot, who’s being taken almost a full round lower, or even D’Angelo Russell, who’s going about 14 spots lower. Teague has limited upside, and that needs to be taken into account with his ADP. He’s being drafted in the top five rounds, and frankly, that’s at least two rounds higher than I would take him.
Isaiah Thomas, Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 33.13)
Isaiah Thomas is a great player who really broke out last season. For that reason, his ADP may seem low, but that’s not the case. Thomas has a hip injury that has been nagging him since last season. It affected his play in the playoffs, and it’s going to put him out for a while this season. There’s a reasonable chance we don’t see Thomas until the All-Star break. That is plenty of reason to pass on drafting him until the mid-late rounds. For some reason, he’s still going in the top of the fourth round in leagues. That needs to stop. By the time he does get back, he’s going to need to adjust to playing with the Cavaliers, and he definitely won’t have the ball-dominant role that he did in Boston. Right now, he’s going behind Mike Conley and Klay Thompson. That is insanity. Both of those players are on the same footing as Thomas when it comes to talent, and they’re both going to play the entire year.
The Final Fantasy Bust: Al Horford, Boston Celtics (ADP: 49.05)
Last but not least, we have Al Horford. Horford is currently being drafted at the end of the fifth round in Fantrax leagues, ahead of Booker, Porter, Middleton, and Holiday. Horford is the third best player on his team, but may be even lower when it comes to his scoring output. On top of that, he’s bound for some regression as he continues to age. He’s no longer the Al Horford he was in Atlanta when he was a fantasy stud. Now, he’s more basketball player than he is a fantasy basketball player. His scoring and assists should both drop as Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward carry the offensive load for the Celtics. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Horford finish closer the 100th best fantasy player than the 50th best when the season comes to a close.