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Fantasy Stock Watch: Eric Ebron’s Draft Price Presents Fantasy Value

There are few players in the history of the NFL that have had as polarizing of an effect on the league without even throwing a football. However, that has been the case for Andrew Luck in the past 18 months. In recent memory, I can’t recall a player drawing headlines for simply making his first official throw of the offseason but Twitter blew up last week when Luck finally got his hands on “The Duke”

When a starting quarterback is progressing towards a Week 1 start it should not be a big deal – but this is Andrew freaking Luck. This is news and it is significant if it means that Luck could even be 70 percent of what he was in 2016. His presence this season changes the Fantasy stock for all of his weapons but there is one, in particular, that should have your attention.

Along with a video of Luck tossing a pigskin to Rick Ross (seriously who was that guy in the video? Is T.Y. Hilton on a new workout regimen?) the Saints were in the news as they hosted Jamaal Charles and Terrance West, ultimately signing the latter. West will assume the role of Mark Ingram in the Saints running attack, presumably splitting carries with last years rookie sensation Alvin Kamara. While this certainly adds relevance to West in Fantasy, it is Ingram’s Fantasy stock that could take a significant drop next season.

ADP risers and Fallers

All ADP’s are based on PPR scoring leagues per

Fantasy Stock Rising: Eric Ebron

Current ADP: Undrafted

Projected ADP: 13.04-13.10

Eric Ebron has been a TE2 for the past three seasons. He finished as the TE13 overall in 2015 with 47 receptions, 537 yards, and five touchdowns. Ebron caught 61 passes for 711 yards but only one touchdown in 2016. While his yardage total was good enough for eighth in the league at the position, his low touchdown output capped his Fantasy production.

Last year Ebron finished in his usual end-of-season TE2 finish and he finds himself on a new team for the first time in his five-year career. His size and athleticism was off the charts at the NFL combine and earned him a first-round selection in the Draft, but it has yet to pay off in superstar form.

Fantasy owners are weary of Ebron and his Fantasy stock is lower than ever. That is exactly why you should buy into him this draft season.

Ebron is only 25 years old and he now finds himself paired up with Andrew Luck. Matthew Stafford is a very good quarterback, but a healthy Luck is arguably one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Colts use two-TE sets often. In fact in 2014 Luck supported the TE6 and TE14 overall in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.

Ebron now joins Jack Doyle who, despite Luck’s absence, finished as the TE9.  On a team that does not have a clear-cut second option at wide receiver, the tight end will be a factor for the Colts, especially in the red zone. Ebron had 12 red-zone targets last season and that number could increase. Drops have been an issue. Ebron was able to manage just four catches and two touchdowns in the 12 times he was targeted inside the 20. He is still an imposing threat in scoring position. There is no stand-out target in the red zone for the Colts, and Ebron could be the team’s most prominent red zone player.

Touchdowns have always been the factor holding Ebron back from a TE1 season. He is a career TE2 and that should be considered his floor on a Colts team that will utilize him. His discount draft price makes selecting him a low-risk move and TE1 is still in the realm of outcomes for an Andrew Luck-led tight end. Ebron is a tight end you can wait on in Fantasy drafts but that could still pay off big in 2018.

Fantasy Stock Falling: Mark Ingram

Current ADP: 5.01

Projected ADP: 6.04-7.01

Despite being ruled out for the first four games of the 2018 season, Ingram is still being drafted as the RB20 on FantraxHQ and the RB24 on His Fantasy stock will go down as the season approaches and that will be exacerbated by the signing of Terrance West. West is no world beater by any means but he does present a problem for Ingram owners next season.

As last year’s RB6, Ingram would be drafted no later than the third round if not for his suspension. He will now be drafted with the assumption that he’ll be a Top-12 running back for the rest of the season. That theory is great and would work under normal circumstances, but there is a bit more to the story here. Sean Payton has been notorious for underutilizing Ingram for the entirety of his seven-year career. Last season it was a slap in the face when the Saints, not only drafted Alvin Kamara, but elected to sign Adrian Peterson in free agency. Luckily for Ingram owners, Peterson clashed with Payton even more than Ingram. Peterson was traded and Ingram went on to have a career-year.

The Saints were avid in their efforts to replace Ingram for their first four games. West will assume this role and could see success. The Saints were fifth in the NFL in rushing, in part because of one of the best offensive lines in the league. It is a contract year for Ingram, and this suspension could not have made things any better between Peyton and Ingram. Ingram has been vocal in his displeasure about taking a back seat to Kamara which is another red flag.

This situation could get ugly fast and it’s hard to see Ingram getting back to his 2017 level of production. With so much uncertainty, Fantasy owners who draft Ingram are taking huge risks. Bypass him and take your shots on someone whose Fantasy stock is headed the other direction.

For more on all things football, check out the Fantrax Radio Network and Full 60 Fantasy Football.

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