Week 7 Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buys and Sells
Week 6 brought yet more unpredictable finishes, with J.D. McKissic outscoring Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott and Anthony Firkser outscoring Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Here are a couple of dynasty buys and sells to target in your leagues, but keep in mind the other team’s current situation when initiating trade talks.
All the first-round rookie picks in the world won’t help you acquire Alvin Kamara if the other dynasty GM is contending for a title, and don’t attempt to sell veteran contributors like Adrian Peterson to teams clearly in a rebuild and not in position to vie for a championship this year.
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Week 7 Dynasty Buys
Tim Patrick has logged back-to-back 100-yard games over the past two weeks, first against the hapless Jets secondary, but again versus a much better Patriots secondary. To Patrick’s credit, he’s played very well and could be worth holding or acquiring as well with Courtland Sutton out for the season. That being said, for rebuilding teams already looking toward next season, Sutton is among the best values for dynasty buys right now.
Over the last two weeks, Patrick has averaged a 27 percent target share and leads the team in receiving, albeit with K.J. Hamler and Noah Fant missing the majority of those two games. The most encouraging part is Drew Lock‘s league-leading 12.9 intended air yards (IAY) per pass attempt. Lock’s willingness to throw deep bodes well for Patrick, and long term for Sutton upon his return.
While Patrick has played well, he’s on a one-year deal with the Broncos and will be a restricted free agent after 2020. Depending on his market, Denver could feel comfortable enough to part ways with Patrick, especially if Jerry Jeudy and Hamler play well to close out the current season.
Sutton will be returning to his alpha role in 2021, and with all due respect to Patrick, Sutton should be able to produce just as well as Patrick has over the last couple of games, if not better. Sutton’s dynasty stock has dropped into that late first-round rookie pick range, and rebuilding teams would be well advised to pay that price for him or offer immediate contributors with equivalent value to contenders like Will Fuller, Robby Anderson, James Robinson or Antonio Gibson.
Apparently the theme this week is extrapolating short-term target share and opportunity to long-term beneficiaries. In this case, Darren Fells has been producing eye-popping fantasy numbers over the last weeks, ranking as the no. 2 tight end in fantasy from Week 5 to Week 6. With Jordan Akins out first due to a concussion and also with an ankle injury, Fells has played 87 percent of the snaps on offense for Houston over the last two games and has run the 10th most routes among tight ends over that span.
Fells was listed among my deep dynasty sleepers way back in May alongside Jerick McKinnon and DeSean Jackson given his upside in this Houston offense. He’s certainly delivered while Akins has been out, but his success in this role is exactly why Akins should be a long-term buy in dynasty. When healthy from Week 1 through Week 3, Akins played on average 77 percent of the the Texans’ offensive snaps. Fells is also a 34 year-old journeyman and could be released with just $500,000 in dead money after the 2020 season.
Moreover, Will Fuller is also a free agent after this year, and there’s an out in Brandin Cooks‘s contract depending on his performance for the rest of this season and what the new head coach and general manager decide. Akins figures to return to a prominent role once healthy in the next few weeks, and he could be the beneficiary of a large target vacuum in 2021 and beyond. He’s likely a fairly cheap acquisition among dynasty buys, as Akins should be attainable for just a third-round rookie pick right now in many leagues, and he might even be available on the waiver wire in some shallower formats.
Week 6 Dynasty Buys Revisited:
David Montgomery and Mecole Hardman were the Week 6 dynasty buys recommended. Montgomery got vultured by a Nick Foles quarterback sneak against Carolina, but as mentioned last week, his four catches for 39 yards provided a safe floor. Perhaps the missed score is a blessing in disguise, as Montgomery’s dynasty value remains quiet for another week, and so he remains a buy candidate.
As for Hardman, it was a disappointing night for both he and Tyreek Hill due to the weather in Buffalo. Rather than an epic shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, we instead got a heavy dose of Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the ground. With poor conditions expected again for the Chiefs’ Week 7 matchup against the Broncos with wind and snow in the forecast, Hardman’s price could crater. I remain bullish on Hardman for 2021 and beyond when Sammy Watkins likely parts ways with Kansas City.
Week 7 Dynasty Sells
Dynasty players have always been fascinated by Phillip Lindsay after back to back 1,000 yard rushing seasons to start his career despite being an undrafted free agent entering the league. But those performances came when his competition for touches were Royce Freeman and Devontae Booker. The Broncos made their feelings clear this past offseason when they signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year, $16 million deal.
Even with Gordon out against the Patriots in Week 6, Lindsay played just 62 percent of the snaps on offense and wasn’t utilized at all as a receiver out of the backfield. Barring an injury to Gordon this year, Lindsay’s best-case scenario is slightly more than half of the touches, and even then it’s likely the more productive receiving touches and red-zone work would be ceded to Gordon.
Long-term, Lindsay is a restricted free agent after this year and may or may not be back. Even in the case of him finding a new team in 2021, there’s a large free agent class full of running back talent, and Lindsay would likely remain in a committee backfield no matter where he lands.
Many are advocating for more touches for Lindsay over Gordon in the Denver backfield, but the odds of Lindsay being more than a touchdown-dependent flex even in a “lead” role are slim to none. And yet, Lindsay seemingly holds quite a bit of name-value among the dynasty community. He should be an easy sell candidate for any second-round rookie pick.
Lindsay simply has little short-term upside other than a handcuff and could be barely fantasy relevant as soon as next season. I will continue to root for undrafted free agents like Lindsay who have found success in the league, but it remains an uphill battle for such players to have sustained NFL or fantasy relevance.
Like T.Y. Hilton in last week’s article, dynasty teams should pounce on any opportunity to sell fading veteran wide receivers. This week, it’s A.J. Green, who after a season-high eight receptions for 96 yards, should be a top sell candidate.
Green has looked slow and has been unable to gain much separation against defenders, and there have been rumors of discontent dating back to last year, with many speculating that Green would welcome a trade. Though the veteran remains second in targets on the team through six weeks with a 19 percent target share, Green has been unable to capitalize on his target volume, logging just 215 yards and zero touchdowns over that span.
His Week 6 performance is probable to have been his best of the year, and more such games are likely to be few and far between. Any teams holding out hope that Green will suddenly find a resurgence in fantasy production at the age of 32 are deluding themselves. While most share this sentiment, it’s possible that this spike in production against the Colts could tempt a contending dynasty team in desperate need of help at wide receiver to pay a late second-round rookie pick for Green.
Teams who have been holding Green on their dynasty rosters should be sending out offers of him for any second-round pick to every team in the league, even if you need to add a smaller piece like a late-round pick to get a deal done.
Week 6 Dynasty Sells Revisited:
Todd Gurley and T.Y. Hilton were the Week 6 dynasty sells recommended. It was mentioned that Gurley’s production has been inefficient on the ground despite a high volume of carries. With his fantasy production buoyed by touchdowns with a low floor without consistent receiving usage, Gurley disappointed in Week 6 with just 47 yards and no score against the Vikings. With Julio Jones back healthy, this Falcons offense is bound to throw more and hand it off to Gurley less, and he remains a sell candidate depending on team need.
As for Hilton, he was a recommended sell after seeing a season-high 10 targets in Week 5 when trailing against the Browns. Hopefully, you took advantage of that spike game and sold because he recorded just one catch on five targets in Week 6 even in a pass-heavy game script when trailing against the Bengals. Hilton’s stock is back down to near nothing. It shouldn’t need to be said, but dynasty teams should be selling veteran wide receivers in decline like Hilton and Green if at all possible.
Like Meng’s Week 7 Dynasty Buys and Sells? Check out the rest of our Week 7 Fantasy Football lineup!
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