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Fantasy Basketball Rankings, ADP, & ROI: Your Guide to Draft Value

Fantasy Basketball Rankings are a great tool to keep you sane during a draft. However, rankings aren’t a blueprint for team building. Regardless of your specific strategy, the key to building the best team is identifying players that fit your team at their maximum point of value while balancing risk. An easy way to do that is to compare rankings to Average Draft Position (ADP) to identify immediate Return on Investment (ROI). If we do basic math: subtract a player’s ranking from ADP, we can order the players that have the largest potential return.

For example:

Kristaps Porzingis is ranked 30 with an ADP of 47. This yields a +17 for this exercise. Therefore, there is an immediate 1.5-2 drafting round return on investment if you draft Porzingis at 47.

Below we’ll look at some basic principles of drafting for value and then rank the players by their return on investment (ROI).

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Fantasy Basketball Rankings, ADP, and ROI

Injured players:

Typically, you might not target injured players as a big part of your draft strategy. However, if you draft well enough, you will have a built-in resilience to allow you to target injured players to stash for later in the season. Players like Markelle Fultz (ADP 281), Klay Thompson (ADP 202), Jonathon Isaac (ADP 93) can be drafted at a much later round despite having a high potential fantasy impact.

Balancing Risk:

A few caveats here. There are confounding variables that interfere with return on investment. For one, these are projections. We do not have real game data yet, so these are educated estimates. Secondly, injury recovery is hard to predict. Do we know how Victor Oladipo will be used when he returns? Do we know if the Orlando Magic have an incentive to play Jonathon Isaac big minutes? Finally, a player’s potential is hard to quantify. Kristaps Porzingis has demonstrated fantasy dominance in short bursts. At 47 ADP, there is potential he provides fantasy teams immense return in the early-to-mid rounds. However, as we know, this performance is not guaranteed.  When there is a huge gap in rankings vs. ADP, there are likely past or current factors that increase the risk of that selection. Balance risk appropriately to ensure your team is consistent across matchups with upside for the playoff season.

2021-22 Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Consensus | Top 180 | PG | SG | SF | PF | C

This also works for the waiver wire:

Players like Reggie Bullock, Cameron Johnson, Donte DiVincenzo are often undrafted, but yield draft values from 11-15 consistently. If you know this ahead of time you can use your final draft selections for high upside selections like rookies or injured players for stashing, knowing you can replace that value from the waiver wire.

Return on Investment (ROI):

The table below is the top 180 Rankings – ordered by ROI (My ordered rankings are here). Please note that just because they have a high ROI does not mean you should select them earlier or at all. Balance your team needs and navigate your draft to find opportunities to find the right player at the right time.

12811DALReggie BullockSG/SF398270
16014PHOCameron PaynePG380220
17415PHOCameron JohnsonSF391217
15814UTARoyce O'NealeSF/PF269111
17615ORLMarkelle FultzPG281105
1039GSWKlay ThompsonSG20299
13111MILDonte DiVincenzoPG/SG22089
958NYKMitchell RobinsonC16166
10910PHIDanny GreenSG/SF15950
17315UTARudy GayPF22047
12010NORJosh HartSG/SF16646
999MIADuncan RobinsonSG/SF14344
11710BKNJoe HarrisSG/SF15437
15113MEMDesmond BaneSG18433
817NYKEvan FournierSG/SF10928
636BOSMarcus SmartPG/SG9027
696ORLJonathan IsaacSF/PF9324
424GSWDraymond GreenPF6422
11910ORLTerrence RossSG/SF14122
565SACBuddy HieldSG/SF7620
12111DETKillian HayesPG14120
908DETSaddiq BeySF10818
15013BOSJosh RichardsonSG/SF16818
303DALKristaps PorzingisPF/C4717
343CHILonzo BallPG5117
726PORRobert CovingtonSF/PF8917
16214DENJamal MurrayPG/SG17917
515SACTyrese HaliburtonPG/SG6716
716ATLBogdan BogdanovicSG/SF8716
11810UTAJoe InglesSG/SF/PF13416
414MEMJaren Jackson Jr.PF5615
454CHATerry RozierPG/SG6015
767ORLJalen SuggsPG/SG9115
1019UTABojan BogdanovicSF/PF11615
1069MINMalik BeasleySG/SF12115
12711GSWJordan PoolePG/SG14215
273MILJrue HolidayPG/SG4114
363INDMyles TurnerPF/C5014
868MEMKyle AndersonSF/PF10014
13011DALDorian Finney-SmithSF/PF14414
404TORO.G. AnunobySF/PF5212
434SACRichaun HolmesPF/C5512
555MIND'Angelo RussellPG/SG6712
847NORNickeil Alexander-WalkerSG9612
464INDMalcolm BrogdonPG/SG5711
989INDT.J. McConnellPG10911
585DETCade CunninghamPG6810
1049MEMDillon BrooksSG/SF11410
12311CHIPatrick WilliamsSF/PF13310
142TORFred VanVleetPG/SG239
242BOSJaylen BrownSG/SF339
495TORPascal SiakamPF589
626SASDerrick WhitePG/SG719
757UTAMike ConleyPG849
91LALAnthony DavisPF178
827PORNorman PowellSG/SF908
1089ATLDe'Andre HunterSF/PF1168
575CLEDarius GarlandPG/SG647
777CHAPJ WashingtonPF847
898CHAMiles BridgesSF/PF967
12911MEMDe'Anthony MeltonPG1367
16114GSWOtto PorterSF1687
132CHINikola VucevicC196
162MIAJimmy ButlerSG/SF226
323MILKhris MiddletonSG/SF386
444PORC.J. McCollumSG506
706NYKKemba WalkerPG766
686PHOMikal BridgesSF735
918NORDevonte' GrahamPG/SG965
11410DALTim Hardaway Jr.SG/SF1195
14112LACNicolas BatumSG/SF1465
14513PHOJae CrowderSF/PF1505
11BKNJames HardenPG/SG54
71BKNKevin DurantSF/PF114
192NYKJulius RandlePF234
212UTADonovan MitchellPG/SG254
222SACDe'Aaron FoxPG264
283OKCShai Gilgeous-AlexanderPG/SG324
353PHOChris PaulPG394
1029SACHarrison BarnesSF/PF1064
11210DENWill BartonSF1164
121LACPaul GeorgeSG/SF153
676MIAKyle LowryPG703
12511HOUJae'Sean TateSF1272
14713ORLChuma OkekePF1492
61MINKarl-Anthony TownsC71
172MIABam AdebayoPF/C181
11110SASThaddeus YoungSF/PF/C1121
11510WASDaniel GaffordPF/C1161
15413TORGoran DragicPG1551
31GSWStephen CurryPG30
263CHIZach LaVineSG260
525ATLJohn CollinsPF520
737CHAGordon HaywardSF730
13912LACMarcus MorrisSF/PF1390
21DENNikola JokicC1-1
41DALLuka DoncicPG3-1
51MILGiannis AntetokounmpoPF4-1
81PORDamian LillardPG7-1
101BOSJayson TatumSF/PF9-1
111PHIJoel EmbiidC10-1
202LALLeBron JamesPG/SF/PF19-1
12211PORLarry Nance Jr.PF121-1
12411LACReggie JacksonPG123-1
13712NYKNerlens NoelC136-1
14012OKCAleksej PokusevskiPF139-1
394NORBrandon IngramSF/PF37-2
1009UTAJordan ClarksonSG98-2
333UTARudy GobertC30-3
384DENMichael Porter Jr.SF/PF35-3
474PHITobias HarrisSF/PF44-3
505PHIBen SimmonsPG47-3
837HOUKevin PorterPG/SG80-3
938WASSpencer DinwiddiePG/SG90-3
13312BOSAl HorfordPF/C130-3
16414OKCIsaiah RobyPF161-3
152WASBradley BealSG11-4
182NORZion WilliamsonPF14-4
16915DENMonte MorrisPG165-4
293CHALaMelo BallPG24-5
616PORJusuf NurkicC56-5
928HOUJalen GreenSG87-5
12611MIATyler HerroPG/SG121-5
15213OKCLuguentz DortSG/SF147-5
374LALRussell WestbrookPG31-6
858SASJakob PoeltlC79-6
13812MINJaden McDanielsSF132-6
14813ORLMo BambaC142-6
17715MIAVictor OladipoSG171-6
253INDDomantas SabonisPF18-7
313BKNKyrie IrvingPG/SG24-7
878DETIsaiah StewartPF/C80-7
11610MILBrook LopezC109-7
484ATLClint CapelaC40-8
11010ORLWendell Carter Jr.C102-8
15914CLERicky RubioPG151-8
535SASDejounte MurrayPG/SG44-9
666INDCaris LeVertSG/SF57-9
797DETJerami GrantSF/PF70-9
15513PHISeth CurryPG/SG146-9
232ATLTrae YoungPG13-10
888GSWAndrew WigginsSG/SF78-10
16314WASRui HachimuraSF/PF153-10
16514LACTerance MannSF155-10
14913NYKDerrick RosePG137-12
807BOSRobert WilliamsPF/C67-13
11310CLEEvan MobleyPF/C100-13
14412WASKyle KuzmaSF/PF131-13
17915CLEIsaac OkoroSF166-13
18015WASDavis BertansPF167-13
1079DETKelly OlynykPF/C93-14
595MINAnthony EdwardsSG/SF43-16
747CLECollin SextonPG/SG58-16
13412CHAMason PlumleeC118-16
13512CHAKelly Oubre Jr.SF/PF119-16
14212TORGary Trent Jr.SG/SF126-16
15313MILBobby PortisPF137-16
979NYKR.J. BarrettSG/SF80-17
605MEMJa MorantPG41-19
787NORJonas ValanciunasC59-19
16614OKCDerrick FavorsPF/C147-19
16714LACIvica ZubacC148-19
17215ATLDanilo GallinariSF/PF153-19
14613DENAaron GordonPF126-20
15714BOSDennis SchroderPG136-21
968CLEJarrett AllenC73-23
13612CLELauri MarkkanenPF110-26
545PHODevin BookerPG/SG27-27
656HOUChristian WoodPF/C38-27
646PHODeandre AytonC36-28
13211SASKeldon JohnsonSF/PF103-29
15613TORKhem BirchC125-31
1059TORChris BoucherPF/C72-33
14312OKCJosh GiddeyPG/SG110-33
948CHIDeMar DeRozanSG/SF57-37
17815ORLCole AnthonyPG141-37
17515WASMontrezl HarrellPF/C127-48
17115LACEric BledsoePG/SG122-49
16814HOUJohn WallPG-168
17015ATLKevin HuerterSG/SF-170

For more great rankings and analysis, check out the 2021-22 Fantrax Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit!

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