We have five pitching categories to manage in Roto leagues, and they often have very different interests at heart. If you are chasing saves or holds, then obviously the lean is going to be toward relief pitching. That could work well for your ratios but it leaves you behind when it comes to strikeouts and wins. There is a balance to be struck, and targeting two-start pitchers is one way to help in managing a pitching staff. This strategy entails targeting two-start pitchers to help you maximize the aforementioned counting stats while preserving your ERA and WHIP as much as possible.
I won’t be listing all two-start pitchers for the upcoming week as that could be too cumbersome. With this being said, we will only detail the viable options that will be taking the mound twice.
If you are in the position of trolling the waiver wire, especially in deeper leagues, it is hard to find comfort with the options that are likely available, so caution must be exercised. Regardless of league size, this is something that must be managed across the board. The good news though, is that we have a lot of strong options to work with this week.
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Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers
No Doubters
There are simply some pitchers who are going to be weekly occupants of your starting lineup regardless of any other variables.
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox, vs. Arizona
Ohtani’s reputation precedes himself, but it is interesting to look at his splits so far this year. At home, where he makes both of his starts this week, Ohtani has a 2.47 ERA compared to 4.03 on the road. Ohtani has 11.83 strikeouts per nine innings and that can make a real difference as he is averaging six innings per start.
Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks, vs. Tampa Bay, at LA Angels
Gallen has done a great job this season of limiting the walks, just 1.83 per nine innings, while also keeping the ball in the park while allowing only 0.55 home runs per nine innings. A large part of his success is getting ahead with a 66% first-pitch strike rate as the right-hander is simply attacking hitters as he follows up a strong 2022 season.
Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, vs. Minnesota, vs. Miami
Strider has struggled as of late with an 8.40 ERA in his last three starts, but this is very much a risk we can afford to take. A 3.93 ERA on the season and a 3.11 FIP, are still quite good, but his 14.46 strikeouts per nine innings are the real difference maker.
Framber Valdez, Houston Astros, at St. Louis, at Texas
Valdez is working his way back to the levels we became accustomed to as his ground ball rate sits at 57.2% compared to his career mark of 64.9%. That has not impacted the left-hander’s success with his 2.27 ERA as a big part of that success is the reduction of his walk rate to a career-low of 1.91 (career mark of 3.00) while striking out a career-high 9.45 batters per nine innings.
Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays, vs. San Francisco, vs. Boston
Between seven victories in 16 starts and 127 strikeouts in 98.2 innings, we get exactly what we are looking for out of Gausman. The fact that the right-hander’s ERA sits at 3.10 for the season with a WHIP of 1.16 fits perfectly with our risk factor as well. With a 2.61 ERA at home, where Gausman makes both of his starts this week, the right-hander is about a full run better.
Luis Castillo, Seattle Mariners, vs. Washington, vs. Tampa Bay
The difference in Castillo’s home/road splits is startling this year (2.03 at home and 4.24 on the road) but it is a good thing since both of his starts come at home this week. Castillo has walked 11 batters in 16.2 innings over his last three starts so there is a little concern, but at 2.78 per nine innings this season, it is manageable while striking out 10.41 batters per nine.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers, at Colorado, at Kansas City
Yes, Kershaw does begin the week in Coors Field, but with a career 4.44 ERA there in 23 starts while striking out just about a batter an inning, things could certainly be worse. The fact that Kershaw follows that up with a start in Kansas City helps to balance that out in what has been a strong season for the left-hander with 10.38 strikeouts per nine innings and a 2.72 ERA.
Solid Options
These two-start pitchers are likely going to be rostered in the majority, if not all leagues, and started in most of them as well.
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox, at LA Angels, at Oakland
The main thing for Cease is to limit the walks, but this is the second straight season of walking about four batters per nine innings, so last year he just did a better job of working around them. In 16 starts, Cease has just three wins and the fact that he is averaging around five innings per start does not exactly help, but we are still looking at a strong option who will get you strikeouts.
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins, at Boston, at Atlanta
Things have not gone according to plan for Alcantara after winning the Cy Young last year but should we really hold it against him? We are now three months away from his draft cost so the right-hander can be looked at objectively. At 2.73 walks per nine, that has gone back to his career mark but most important is the vast difference between his FIP (3.77) and ERA (5.08).
Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers, vs. Detroit, vs. Houston
The last three starts have been rough for Eovaldi as he has allowed five home runs and 11 earned runs over 19.1 innings in what has been an otherwise strong season for the right-hander. Things should obviously be easier for him against the Tigers than the Astros as Eovaldi continues to limit the walks, 1.90 per nine innings while keeping the ball on the ground (50.8%).
Justin Verlander, New York Mets, vs. Milwaukee, vs. San Francisco
It has been an up-and-down season for the right-hander after missing the first month of the year. From a statistical perspective, things are not going according to plan for the veteran as he is striking out just 7.62 batters per nine innings. With an average exit velocity against of 91.2 miles per hour compared to his career mark of 87.9, the quality of contact against Verlander has improved as he just does not look like the same pitcher we became accustomed to.
Sonny Gray, Minnesota Twins, at Atlanta, at Baltimore
In what is truly becoming a theme, Gray is not averaging much more than five innings per start so it should not be surprising that his record is just 4-1 in 15 starts. With that being said, Gray is going above and beyond at limiting home runs at just 0.22 per nine innings. With a 2.56 ERA, Gray is working around 3.56 walks per nine innings, but he has been a dependable option all year.
Ranger Suarez, Philadelphia Phillies, at Chicago Cubs, vs. Washington
Suarez continues to have success with a 0.95 ERA in his last three starts with 22 strikeouts in 19 innings. We are starting to see some length from the left-hander as he works his way into form after missing the beginning of the season and Suarez is a solid option.
Worthy of a Start in Most Leagues
In 10-team leagues, these two-start pitchers might be not worth the trouble, but in anything deeper, these Fantasy Baseball Two Start Pitchers are worth strong consideration at a minimum, and likely deserving of a starting spot this week.
Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres, at Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati
Darvish faces two NL Central teams that are having a surprising amount of success, but of greater concern is Darvish’s 6.16 on the road so far this season. Aside from that, things with Darvish are looking similar to what we have become accustomed to with a little over a strikeout per inning. While the right-hander is struggling with a 4.84 ERA, his 3.86 FIP does offer some optimism.
Taj Bradley, Tampa Bay Rays, at Arizona, at Seattle
Bradley is coming off a strong outing against Baltimore in his last start as he allowed just one run in six innings while striking out eight. As we work on chasing victories, it was Bradley’s fifth win in 10 starts to go along with 13 strikeouts per nine innings so the right-hander checks off two important boxes.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Minnesota
While we did not expect to see Wells in this grouping at the start of the season, it is difficult to argue with the results we are getting out of the right-hander. Wells brings a 2.52 ERA at home into a week with two starts in Baltimore, but that does not mean we are not without issues as he is allowing 1.87 home runs per nine innings this year while benefiting from a .191 BABIP against as the 11.5% barrel rate does not generate much confidence either.
Garrett Whitlock, Boston Red Sox, vs. Miami, at Toronto
Three straight starts of 18 swinging strikes is a nice little streak for Whitlock who has a 3.10 ERA in that stretch with two victories and 19 strikeouts against just two walks in 20.1 innings, It is a nice trend for Whitlock that we look for him to continue this week as he continues to benefit from utilizing his changeup more, at the expense of his fastball, than he did last season.
Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels, vs. Chicago White Sox, vs. Arizona
Detmers has been about half a run better at home this season than on the road but it is really his last three starts that have caught my attention. In that stretch, Detmers has a 0.96 ERA while striking out 24 batters in 18.2 innings and there is something to be said for riding this streak.
Jordan Montgomery, St. Louis Cardinals, vs. Houston, vs. NY Yankees
Montgomery takes a 1.86 ERA over his last three starts into a week in which he will take the mound twice. The Astros are never an easy opponent, especially considering they do not strike out much, but their not as fearsome as in previous years with the same to be said for the Yankees. With 3.69 ERA through 15 starts this year, it has been another solid campaign for the southpaw who once again is a worthwhile option.
Julio Teheran, Milwaukee Brewers, at NY Mets, at Pittsburgh
Where did this come from? At this point, it is difficult to get off the ride that is Teheran and the veteran has two solid matchups this week as well. At some point, things will prove to not be sustainable for Teheran, and it does hurt that he is only striking out six batters per nine innings, but the 1.53 ERA is hard to ignore. Teheran is benefiting from a .211 BABIP and 90.3% strand rate which drives his FIP to 3.92 and xFIP to 4.74. There are no issues riding the wave, but just beware of what is coming.
Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds, at Baltimore, vs. San Diego
Things could not bet much better for the Reds as of late and that includes Abbott since his promotion. The rookie has yet to allow a runner on base to score as he sports a 100% left on base rate through five starts which helps to explain his 1.14 ERA as well as his 4.21 FIP. While we want to be optimistic, Abbott’s .190 BABIP has to get worse and his 26.7% ground ball rate does not generate a ton of optimism.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox, at LA Angels, at Oakland
If only Kopech could improve his control and pitch deep into games so we could get the true benefit of his strikeout ability. Kopech has similar issues keeping the ball in the park as ground balls are not his forte while opposing hitters have a 14.4% barrel rate against. The strikeouts, 10.32 per nine innings, are nice but not too exceptional depending on your true risk tolerance.
Digging Deeper
This is where we really need to limit ourselves to leagues of 15-plus teams as we need all the innings we can get; but at what cost? This is the last bastion of two-start pitchers who are rostered in more than 50% of leagues.
Drew Smyly, Chicago Cubs, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Cleveland
Not only does Smyly not overpower hitters, with less than eight strikeouts per nine innings, but he also does not keep the ball on the ground (34.1% ground ball rate). On the good side of things, Smyly has an opposing barrel rate of just 6.4%, but his 21.3-degree average launch angle against does give me some cause for concern.
Martin Perez, Texas Rangers, vs. Detroit, vs. Houston
We knew that Perez was at his career best last season, but things have been rough for the 2022 All-Star this year. In his last three starts, Perez has an ERA over six with just seven strikeouts while walking seven betters. The lack of strikeouts limits the upside here, but he does have seven victories for those interested in chasing a win against Detroit. Perez’s ground ball rate has regressed down to 41.2%, a double-digit drop compared to last year, and that coupled with 1.38 home runs per nine innings is not a recipe for success.
Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians, at Kansas City, at Chicago Cubs
The matchups for Allen are solid this week which makes you give him a second look despite seeing his 6.92 ERA in his last three starts. On the other hand, his 3.68 ERA for the season does paint a better picture. After allowing five earned runs in consecutive starts, Allen did bounce back with four shutout innings in his last outing so there could be some value to found this week in Allen.
Domingo German, New York Yankees, at Oakland, at St. Louis
German does have two solid matchups this week, albeit on the road, in what has been an up-and-down season for the right-hander. With that being said, there is some concern as German does have a 5.91 ERA away from Yankee Stadium and there is nothing that truly stands out here. And did we mention that in his last start, German allowed eight earned runs along with four home runs?
Two-Start Pitchers from the Waiver Wire
These are pitchers who are rostered in less than 50% of leagues who could provide value both for this week and the remainder of the season. This is especially the case in deeper leagues, but these options have potential across most formats if you are looking to maximize your innings.
Paul Blackburn, Oakland A’s, vs. NY Yankees, vs. Chicago White Sox
Blackburn got a late start to the season, but through his first five starts, the right-hander is making up for lost time with 30 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. Over his last three starts, Blackburn has a 3.24 ERA while walking just three batters. While there is optimism about Blackburn making both of his starts at home this week, he has been worse at home than on the road in his career.
Rich Hill, Pittsburgh Pirates, vs. San Diego, vs. Milwaukee
This is one of those situations where perhaps it might not be best to watch, but Hill has a 4.34 ERA on the season and is striking out 8.34 batters per nine innings. There are certainly better options but if you are hunting wins and strikeouts, Hill is worth a look with his 6-7 record in 15 starts this year.
Trevor Williams, Washington Nationals, at Seattle, at Philadelphia
If you are really just looking for innings, Williams and his 4.14 ERA should not hurt too bad, but 1.66 home runs per nine innings and a 5.23 xERA both say otherwise. Be aware of your surroundings here.