Context is King. With so much data available to sports analysts and fans willing to put in the effort to find it we, as a fantasy community, have come to the point of information overload. As fantasy football gamers begin to lean less and less on the eye test (with good reason), the new question becomes: which numbers matter? And why? In reasoning what numbers stand out as signal versus what to tune out as noise my answer might seem ambivalent but stick with me. They all do. The trick to using them correctly is to contextualize how and when to weigh those numbers against one another. I’m firmly of the opinion that context matters and this NFL season has once again proved that to devastating effect. How you ask? This series will examine a few key situations and discuss how they should be perceived in dynasty leagues. Today we will discuss: The Disaster Named Matthew Stafford
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The Dropoff of Matthew Stafford
Ah, Matthew Stafford: The perennial late round QB candidate that propelled countless teams to championship contention. What happened this year? Is this the new norm for the former first-round pick out of Georgia? Let’s dive in.
Stafford’s 2018 campaign is actually not too dissimilar to his previous ones by the numbers. His completion percentage of 66.8% is actually in line with what he has produced over his previous four seasons. His PACR rating (airyards.com), which measures his total passing yards divided by his total air yards, is 0.98. That mark is equal to his 2017 campaign and better than the 2016 one. According to PlayerProfiler, Stafford has equaled his number of “money”, or tight window throws from last season and has thrown the same amount of interceptable passes this year as he did in 2017. So what gives? The simple answer is touchdowns.
Stafford has never been a particularly careful passer, and his 11 interceptions so far this season are in line with what he has produced over the majority of his career. But his 19 TDs through 14 games represents the second lowest TD rate of his career at just 3.4%. He simply cannot find the end zone, and because of this fact, his mistakes have been more obvious this year. When digging through some of the possible causes for this I came to the conclusion that this may not be all Stafford’s fault.
His receivers this season should be held as responsible as the QB for the reduced TD output. So far this season, Detroit receivers have recorded 36 drops, the worst mark in the league for that statistic. Stafford’s wideouts also haven’t been gaining consistent separation as their combined 1.34 yards of separation per target ranks just 27th leaguewide. Because of this, Stafford has been forced to throw shorter, higher percentage passes as evidenced by his below average 7.1 yard aDOT (average depth of target) in 2018. This mark is much lower than his career average 8.2 mark and further illustrates this point. The trade of Golden Tate and injuries to Detroit’s true number one, Marvin Jones, has had a marked effect on Stafford’s ability to score points for the Lions this season.
Finally, the effectiveness of rookie RB Kerryon Johnson has also played a role in suppressing Stafford’s touchdown numbers this season. Stafford has had the “benefit” (for fantasy purposes) of playing on a team unable to gain yards or manufacture scores on the ground for the majority of his career. Johnson’s 2018 53% rushing success rate is the highest mark any Lions back has achieved over the last three seasons with at least 100 attempts (this is probably underselling this as my data only goes back that far). A more balanced offense has taken the ball out of Stafford’s hands more than he’s used to.
Matthew Stafford Moving Forward
In conclusion, I’d take the discussed context and determine that Stafford’s days in the top eight fantasy football finishes may be over. That said, he should still have a number of years left as a top 12 option. Detroit’s ill-timed decision to trade Golden Tate instead of waiting for a compensatory pick and bad luck with injuries left the talented, but still raw, Kenny Golladay as Stafford’s main option for the majority of the season.
If attention is paid this offseason to restock the Lion’s offense with playmakers, Stafford should have no problem bouncing back. His offensive line is currently one of the best he’s had in his career and Johnson’s impact should allow him more play-action opportunities downfield. Keep the faith in Stafford if you already rostered him and buy if you need some stability at QB for the long haul. He’s definitely still a valuable piece in dynasty fantasy football leagues. Remember, Context is King!
Agree? Think I’m nuts? Let me know on Twitter @ FF_Wonderkid or ask with #WonderQs. Suggest anyone else you’re wondering about as a topic for a future article. Thanks for reading.
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