The dust has settled on free agency and we’re officially in the review period. Though the likes of Ryan Tannehill, Odell Beckham Jr., and Tyler Boyd have yet to be signed, the news cycle has moved on.
With most media outlets busy grading winners and losers in the NFL, we’ll explore the best targets in this post-free-agency world. All the movement has caused big changes in dynasty values and I hope you got ahead of the Kirk Cousins news as was suggested in previous weeks.
But rather than focus on the big fish, we look to cut against the grain in reaction to smaller movements. After all, it’s speculation season. With managers restless across the board, expect some overreactions.
That means there’s a fantastic opportunity to grab significant discounts. The key to winning in dynasty football is to stay steady in your assessments even when hot takes are flying.
Think long-term and see the current media storylines as all but permanent. Before the draft shakes things up further, let’s look at some of the top values you should be hunting.
Three Players to Add
Justin Fields, QB, PIT
Count yourself not alone if you were shocked at the price of Justin Fields in his trade to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Sure, all of the seats became filled in the NFL’s annual quarterback carousel.
But that didn’t mean that Fields had to be let go for nearly nothing. There’s obviously no comparison here to Lamar Jackson in terms of efficiency and raw talent, but the total production didn’t lag that far behind on a per-game basis.
Fields had 197.1 passing yards and 50.5 rushing yards per game last year. Jackson had 229.9 passing yards and 51.3 rushing yards per game. Fields was on pace for 26 touchdowns over 17 games, whereas Jackson put up 30 TDs last season.
Again, Fields has in no way demonstrated the ability to lead a football team the same way and has no assurances of ever getting a starting job in the NFL again.
But consider the number of chances players like Taylor Heinecke, Carson Wentz, and Jacoby Brissett have gotten. It’s not unreasonable to see him suiting up again for an NFL team. If he does, we have a pretty good idea of what to expect and, for a couple of weeks at least, his dynasty value will balloon.
Buy and hold until that opportunity arrives.
Trey McBride, TE, ARI
In the case of the Arizona Cardinals and Trey McBride, it’s not so much what they did as much as what they didn’t do.
The Cardinals didn’t trade Kyler Murray. They didn’t trade up in the NFL Draft. They didn’t retain Marquise Brown or sign any offensive skill players of note.
Here’s what we can conclude. One, Kyler Murray is the starting quarterback this year. No problem, mobile quarterbacks are a detriment to running back receiving totals, not so much tight end receiving totals.
Two, the Cardinals will either be trading down for a team desperate for J.J. McCarthy, drafting him themselves as the heir apparent, or selecting the top wide receiver on the board. An all likelihood, that will be Marvin Harrison Jr.. So we can imagine this Cardinals attack having a deep threat even without Brown.
So we have an offense that will be better this year just by Murray’s healthy presence. We currently have a receiving corps lacking in any proven options outside of McBride. Or if there were any fears that he wouldn’t have enough room to operate, there seems to be a high likelihood of adding a premium deep threat to take pressure off.
Even ignoring the talent that McBride showed last year and in the draft process, it’s shaping to be #McBrideSZN. Buy in before the dynasty value floats even higher.
Rashee Rice, WR, KC
Someone has to say it, right? This is an all too familiar situation. While there was no physical evidence of Tyreek Hill’s intent, his son was hurt in a very publicized incident. There became loud cries for how the NFL should handle Hill.
Hill’s dynasty value then proceeded to tank as the Kansas City Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman.
Of course, Hardman never popped. That’s largely because he was overdrafted to help tamp down a brewing PR crisis.
Rashee Rice is not the same. He quickly emerged as Mahomes’ best wide receiver and posted nearly 1,000 yards in his rookie season. This was rewarded with an 85.0 grade from PFF.
None of this is intended to pass judgment on the actions of Rice. But based on the NFL’s track record, expect Rice to find a way back onto the field.
After all, this is not the same off-the-field situation as someone like Henry Ruggs III. Ruggs’ incident led to the death of a young woman and her pet. Rice, while displaying a similar recklessness, does not warrant the same punishment as there isn’t as much damage to rectify.
If there’s someone panicking over Rice’s dynasty value, I would suggest swooping in on that. With Kelce winding down, Rice will be a valuable asset to have, even if Kansas City drafts another wide receiver this year.