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Dynasty Fantasy Football: Wide Receiver Values

Through nearly seven weeks of 2018 football we’ve come to the point that it is fair to examine what new realities have made themselves apparent in this new season. In dynasty especially, it is important to continuously reevaluate players to determine their trade value in an effort to acquire or sell assets at ideal times. Why? Because just like stocks traded on the exchange, dynasty assets are dynamic and their values fluctuate rapidly. We’ll start this dynasty fantasy football series with a focus on wide receivers.

So far, we’ve seen who coaches favor and have a reasonable expectation when it comes to what players’ roles are on their teams. Today we’ll examine three wide receivers that have surprised positively and make some early conclusions on what the true value of these guys are moving forward. Consider this…

Dynasty Fantasy Football WR Values

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams


Roster Role: WR2

Team Role: Slot

Contract Details: Rookie Deal Ends 2021

Why he’s worth it?

Fantrax Football CommissionerIf you’re late to the party when it comes to Cooper Kupp you’d best get on board and quick. Through the Week 7, Kupp has shown all of the necessary qualities to be considered one of the top dynasty assets moving forward. Kupp is heavily targeted (8.2tgts/gm), specifically schemed for as evidenced by LARs running 11 personnel (3WR) sets over 95% (1st NFL) of the time at a 57% success rate (second in NFL), and has shown he has the trust of his QB on third down (55% success rate 26th NFL).  On third down, he converts his targets for an average of 12.4 yards per catch (third among receivers). Kupp is also heavily targeted in the red zone as shown by his 11 targets (fourth in NFL) and consistently scores in those situations with three TDs so far.

Kupp is the perfect receiver for Sean McVay’s offense and has the added bonus of avoiding elite No.1 CBs as he primarily plays in the slot. He’s tied to the team until at least 2021 and should continue to consistently produce once he returns from the knee injury he suffered in Week 6’s win against the Broncos.

Current Value: With all this considered, I wouldn’t balk at paying up to two firsts worth of value for number 18 in dynasty fantasy football leagues.

Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Age: 26

Roster Role: WR3

Team Role: Move

Contract Details: 3/$31M FA 2022 Out 2020

Why he’s worth it?

Still think Doug Baldwin is the unquestioned WR1 in Seattle’s run heavy offense? If your answer is yes you haven’t been paying enough attention. I understand Lockett isn’t targeted to the degree one would expect from a premier dynasty asset but here’s the thing, he almost always produces when he does get looks.

So far this season, Lockett has amassed a 33% dominator rating, good enough for eighth leaguewide. He scores 2.84 fantasy points per target (fifth NFL), and Russell Wilson’s QB rating when targeting Lockett is 148.5 (second NFL). He also has zero drops on 32 targets and ranks 17th leaguewide at 8.9 air yards per target. This isn’t a flash in the plan. The Seahawks envisioned what we’re seeing now when they signed Lockett to a new deal this past offseason and you should take notice.

Current Value: Lockett is worth a mid to late first round picks value in dynasty fantasy football leagues at this point and this could rise if Baldwin becomes a cap casualty (as I expect) in 2019.

John Brown, Baltimore Ravens

Age: 28

Roster Role: WR3

Team Role: Outside

Contract Details: 1/$5M FA 2019

Why he’s worth it?

John Brown is in an ideal situation catching passes from Joe Flacco. Over the first six seasons of Flacco’s career he recorded an average depth of target (aDOT) of over 8.3 yards per attempt. In the two seasons immediately afterward that number dropped significantly to 7.4 yards. Last season Flacco’s aDOT was at 6.8 yards, a career low.

No more.

This season with the premier deep threat that is John Brown in tow, Flacco’s aDOT is back up to 8.7 and we’ve seen more aggressive play from Joe because of it. John Brown has also shown to be more than just a nine route guy this season as he is heavily targeted in that offense, averaging 7.7 targets per game. This season his aDOT has risen to a career high 18.8 yards and his RACR (Receiver Air Yard Conversion Ratio) is at the second highest mark of his career at .55. His Weighted opportunity ratio is .52 (23rd NFL). He deserves your attention.

Current Value: The only knock against Brown at this point is his potential for longevity in Baltimore’s offense. He signed a one year deal this past offseason. That said, he’s looked like the Ravens’ most capable receiver so far and it would be hard to envision a scenario where Baltimore lets him go barring injury. Comfortably spend a second round pick plus value for him now dynasty fantasy football leagues and reap the rewards as history tells us he can continue to be productive through his age 32 season.

Agree? Think I’m nuts? Have a specific player you’d like me to profile on next weeks edition? Let me know on twitter @FF_Wonderkid. Thanks for reading.

The Fantasy Black Book ShowReady to amp up your Fantasy Football game even more? Check out The Fantasy Black Book Show, where Joe Pisapia, Scott Bogman, and The Welsh bring the goods every week.

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