With the 2023 MLB Trade Deadline passed, many fantasy leagues have deadlines approaching as well. In dynasty baseball formats, managers should have a good feel for what direction their roster is heading. While there’s still an important task at hand — a 2023 dynasty championship — it’s never too early to begin thinking about 2024. This group of players has really struggled this summer. Are they decent buy-low candidates or is it time to bail before you’re left holding the bag?
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5 Players Whose Dynasty Value is Fizzling Out Ahead of 2024
Jeremy Pena – Astros
After a terrific 2022 postseason, Jeremy Pena entered the 2023 season with high expectations. So far, that hasn’t been the case. He’s slashing .247/.310/.369 with just 10 homers and 10 steals through 110 games. The 25-year-old shortstop is currently ranked as a top-100 dynasty asset but will be dropping in the next update due to his poor performance.
Since the start of June, Pena has registered a .614 OPS while going deep just twice. That OPS ranks 8th-worst among all qualified hitters during that stretch. He’s currently stuck in a 33-game homerless drought. His barrel rate has evaporated and his plate discipline has been horrible. Pena’s walk, whiff, and chase percentages are all in the 26th percentile or worse.
Pena was solid as a rookie last year, bashing 22 home runs with a .715 OPS across 558 plate appearances. His regression in 2023 is concerning, especially considering he’ll be 26 before the end of the season. With elite sprint speed and a decent barrel rate in 2022, plus his incredible postseason performance, it looked like he could be a consistent 25-homer shortstop with double-digit steals. Instead, Pena is trending toward being an average bat with some slight power/speed upside and not nearly the dynasty asset he was expected to become.
Tony Gonsolin – Dodgers
Tony Gonsolin was finally given a full year in the Dodgers rotation in 2022 and he dominated. He went 16-1 with a 2.14 ERA and a 16.9% K-BB%. It looked like he was going to repeat that success early in the year; Gonsolin posted a terrific 1.93 ERA through his first nine starts of 2023. However, he’s registered a brutal 6.28 ERA over his last 10 outings dating back to June 18. That’s the worst ERA among all qualified pitchers during that stretch.
Gonsolin’s 4.24 ERA is bad enough considering his lackluster 7.2 K/9 and 10.7% K-BB%. On top of that, his advanced numbers aren’t very forgiving either. The 29-year-old’s FIP and xERA sit at 4.78 and 5.29, respectively. His average fastball velocity, which was never really a strong suit, has fallen from 93.1 mph in 2022 to 92.4 mph this season. Surprisingly, opponents are hitting just .205 against his fastball after compiling a .261 average against it last year.
While his 77th percentile chase rate looks promising, Gonsolin ranks in the 18th percentile in whiff rate with a career-low 21.4%. Outside of the 2021 season where he produced a 10.5 K/9, he’s never relied heavily on strikeouts at the MLB level. That already limited his fantasy ceiling to more of an innings-eater with good ratios. Now that he’s regressed to the mean a bit, Gonsolin’s dynasty value is dropping. For 2024, he’ll be considered a back-end rotation piece without much upside.
Daulton Varsho – Blue Jays
In his first season after being traded from Arizona to Toronto, Daulton Varsho’s bat has gone cold. He’s slashing .215/.276/.366 with 15 home runs and 13 steals. Of those 15 homers, just three have come in his last 49 games. During that span, he’s registered an unsightly .514 OPS with just 10 extra-base knocks. Varsho has also recorded a 31% strikeout rate during that same stretch.
Since the start of June, Varsho ranks 13th among all qualified hitters with a .636 OPS. Unfortunately, the underlying metrics don’t tell a very positive story, either. He’s below the league average in nearly every category, including a barrel rate in the 29th percentile. That barrel rate is down to 7% from 10.2% in 2022. Varsho entered 2023 with a career .272 BABIP but has produced a subpar .254 number this season.
The 27-year-old broke out with 27 home runs and 16 steals while posting a 109 OPS+ last year. On top of Varsho’s general struggles at the plate this year, he’ll be losing catcher eligibility this offseason. His power/speed potential was rare for a catcher, but as an outfielder, he’s not going to provide any additional value. Heading into 2024, Varsho will be looked at as a depth outfielder in many dynasty formats but he’ll retain some interest as a multi-category contributor.
Luis Severino – Yankees
Few pitchers have done more damage to their dynasty value this summer than Luis Severino. Injury concerns have clouded him for the last several years, but he’d still been effective when healthy. Last year, he posted a 3.18 ERA and a 20.2% K-BB% in his first full season since 2018. Now, he’s stuck with a brutal 7.98 ERA and 9.3% K-BB% through 67.2 frames. Since the start of June, Severino has turned in a 9.27 ERA across 13 appearances, over a full run higher than any other qualified pitcher in the league.
Nothing about Severino’s struggles has come cheap. Opposing batters are teeing off against him with a 46.2% hard-hit rate and an 11.4% barrel percentage. His xERA is over a full run better than his ERA but still sits at 6.75. The 29-year-old can’t produce any swing-and-miss this season; his career-low whiff rate of 20.6% ranks in the 12th percentile.
A more positive way to look at this would be that Severino’s value really can’t get any lower. If you’re looking to buy low in dynasty formats, now would be the time, though there aren’t many assets worth moving for him. Heading into 2024, he’ll be looked at as a depth rotation piece, barring a massive turnaround over the next month and a half. While Severino can’t possibly be this bad again next season, it’s probably time to stop waiting for a rebound to his pre-Tommy John abilities.
Alex Verdugo – Red Sox
Alex Verdugo got off to a terrific start in 2023 before things went sour. In 75 games through the end of June, he was slashing .301/.371/.465 with 35 extra-base hits and three steals. However, in 32 contests since then, he’s registered a .571 OPS with 7 extra-base knocks. That’s the 11th-worst OPS among all qualified hitters since the start of July.
On top of his streaky performance overall, the 27-year-old has been a ghost outside of Fenway Park. He owns an .853 OPS at home but just a .662 OPS on the road. It always seemed like there could be another level to Verdugo’s game but he hasn’t quite reached it. Over the last three seasons, he’s totaled 33 home runs and 11 steals in 405 games while posting an OPS+ between 102-107 each year.
Among all the players on this list, Verdugo probably has the best argument to buy low. His plate discipline is well above average, including a whiff rate in the 96th percentile. He’s also pretty consistent year-to-year. It looks like his shortened 2020 campaign will be his peak but dynasty championships are won with depth. Verdugo’s lack of power and speed upside keep his ceiling fairly low but he has use as a depth outfielder to fill out a lineup.