FantraxHQ

The Home of Fantasy Sports Analysis

MENUMENU
  • MLB
        • Baseball Home
          • FantraxHQ 2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit [Updated!]
          • Fantasy Baseball Rankings
          • Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Busts
          • Prospect Rankings
          • Top 500 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings
          • Analysis
        • Research
          • ADP
          • Prospects
        • Podcasts
          • Five Tool Podcast
          • Triple Play Fantasy
          • Fantasy Prospect Toolshed
          • SP Streamer Podcast
        • Games
          • MLB Commissioner League
          • MLB Cash League
        • 2021 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit
  • NFL
        • Research
          • All Things Fantasy Football
          • Dynasty Football
          • ADP
        • Rankings
          • Dynasty Football Rankings
          • Superflex Dynasty Rankings
        • Podcasts
          • The Individual Defensive Podcast
        • Games
          • NFL Commissioner League
        • Nick Foles NFL Free Agency
          CHICAGO, IL - JANUARY 06: Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles (9) passes the ball as Chicago Bears linebacker Khalil Mack (52) pressures in the 4th quarter during an NFL NFC Wild Card football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Chicago Bears on January 06, 2019, at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL. (Photo by Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire)
  • NBA
        • Research
          • Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire
        • Games
          • Fantasy Basketball Commissioner
        • 2019-20 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit
          Fantrax has your back whether you're looking for rankings in your favorite format or on the lookout for the sleeper everybody else missed. Our 2019-20 Fantasy Basketball Draft Kit is a slam dunk!
  • NHL
  • EPL
        • Weekly Content
          • EPL Waiver Wire
          • EPL Player Rankings
          • EPL Start and Sit
          • EPL Sleepers XI
          • EPL Weekly Rankings
          • EPL Community Special
        • Special Features
          • EPL Draft Strategy
          • Fantasy EPL 101 – How to Play Draft Premier League
          • EPL Draft Rankings
          • EPL Draft Guides
          • EPL New Signings
          • EPL Team Previews
          • ADP
          • 2020 Fantrax HQ Fantasy EPL Draft Kit
        • Podcast
          • The Kick Around
        • Games
          • Play Fantasy EPL
        • 2020 Fantasy EPL Draft Kit

          2020 Fantasy EPL Draft Kit
  • NCAAF
        • Games
          • NCAAF Commissioner League
        • Podcasts
          • CFF On Campus
        • College Fantasy Football
          BRONX, NY - DECEMBER 27: Wisconsin Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor (23) runs during the fourth quarter of the 2018 New Era Pinstripe Bowl between the Wisconsin Badgers and the Miami Hurricanes on December 27, 2018 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, NY. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire)
  • MY LEAGUES
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to primary sidebar
  • Skip to footer

Dokken’s Dudes & Don’ts: The Outfield Don’ts

March 15, 2019 by Nathan Dokken Leave a Comment   |  nathandokken

FantraxHQ is the official content sponsor of Fantrax.com, the hottest Fantasy Site of 2018 and 2019.
David Dahl Outfield Don'ts

Last time out, we were nothing but positive as we went over my Outfield Dudes for 2019. Well, guess what Sonny Jim Bob, life ain’t all sunshine and rose petals adorning your bathtub after a long hard day of filing TPS reports! Sometimes we have to throw some shade. These outfielders are very much in the shade in my estimation, set to lose value from their Fantrax ADP. All three are currently being drafted inside the top 35 outfielders because I’m not here to tell you to avoid players who are already coming cheap. Let the hatred commence!


The regular season is less than two weeks away! Don’t worry, there’s still time to add that “one more league!” Leagues are still forming at Fantrax.com, so head on over and jump in one today.


The First Don’t – Mitch Haniger

Mitch Haniger was a big profit turner in 2018, piling up 183 R+RBI, 26 homers, eight steals, and a solid .285 average. The magical age-27 season strikes again. He basically repeated his 2017 numbers over a full season, flipping the bird to everyone who cautions against extrapolating a bit more than half a season. His skill set doesn’t exactly set the world ablaze, but it’s still a very useful one. So why does he find himself on the Don’t list? And why do I wake up at night in a cold sweat shouting “Ditch Mitch!!”?

Frankly, that last question is probably best left for a therapist. However, I can rationalize why I won’t have any Haniger shares this season. One primary reason is that the Mariners offense is set to take a step backward. There’s little doubt Haniger will be hitting in the heart of the lineup day in and day out, so there is something to be said for the floor there. Will he repeat his aforementioned 183 R+RBI,  though? To me, it’s unlikely.

Also feeding into the potential drop in counting stats is a looming batting average regression. While his batted ball profile isn’t one that tends to hurt BABIP, his 37.1% hard contact rate isn’t especially impressive. He has a career .329  BABIP over 287 games, which is plenty enough to just throw your hands up and admit he can sustain a plus BABIP. That said, he has a lot more batting average downside than upside. He could easily be a .260 hitter, which isn’t what you want from the 18th outfielder off the board. He doesn’t steal enough bases to offset a dropoff in the other four categories, either. Even in the early rounds, I want upside.

If moderate power with decent R+RBI and a batting average that won’t kill you is your type of thing, well, that’s pretty easy to come by later in drafts. Here’s a short list of a few of the other outfielders who THE BAT projects to have similar numbers, along with their ADP. I’ll let that speak for itself.

Projection: 650 Plate Appearances, 24 Home Runs, 80 R, 85 RBI, 5 SB, .265 AVG


The Second Don’t – David Dahl

Are we really drafting David Dahl as a top 25 outfielder based on half a season? Or, more specifically, one crazy month of production? Nine of his 16 home runs came in September against a diluted pitcher pool. I’ll admit, I was completely stunned when I first saw how high Dahl was bring drafted this season. That said, how hard can I really pan a starting Rockies hitter?

It turns out – pretty hard. He does indeed have the Coors factor providing some floor, and we know he’s got the potential to give you five-category production. What we don’t know is if he can really put together a whole season. Dahl has been plagued by injuries season after season, and even last year he managed just 96 games between Triple-A and the majors. The injury risk alone is enough to scare me off of his OF21/ADP90 price tag, but there is plenty more that concerns me.

While Dahl posted a solid .273 average that wasn’t just buoyed by some astronomical BABIP (.311), he made just 71.8% contact. That doesn’t bode well for a plus average, so you’re hoping Coors Field helps him hit .270 instead of .240. While Dahl has a few 20+ steal seasons under his belt in the minors, he was just 6-9 in SBA last season. Whether he’ll risk further injury by attempting steals is a legitimate question. He also has a modest .710 OPS against lefties in his very scant career, so a platoon of Dahl is a possibility. I’ll avoid the risk here with Dahl and wait for the similarly projected Andrew McCutchen 56 picks later to give me a safer floor.

Projection: 525 Plate Appearances, 24 HR, 65 R, 75 RBI, 5 SB, .270 AVG


The Third Don’t – David Peralta

I don’t like putting David Peralta on this list because he helped me out a lot in 2018. Sorry Davie P, but the past is the past! To be successful at this little game of ours, we have to use our heads and not our hearts. Peralta adjusted his swing last season and hit for far more power, tying with Eugenio Suarez for the second-highest hard contact rate in baseball at 48.6%. Matt Carpenter was the only player to make harder contact at 49%, for those of you who can’t stand not knowing the answers to such things. He pulled more balls as well, and Humidor be damned, he hit 30 home runs for the first time in his career at age 30. 30 for 30? Someone call ESPN.

However, Peralta finds himself on this list due to some real warts. Ok, not real warts on body parts…I mean, maybe he has some, I really don’t know. No, these are metaphorical warts that cannot be cured by a simple topical cream. While the home runs were impressive, he’s unlikely to repeat the very elevated 23.4% HR/FB rate from last season. His Statcast xwOBA was .017 points below his actual wOBA, further indicating that he over-performed. The Diamondbacks are set to be a much worse offense in 2019, making another 162 R+RBI season a lot to ask for.

Further compounding that unlikely upside is a serious platoon potential now that Adam Jones is in the outfield mix. Peralta has always been bad against lefties, and even last year hit only .237/.294/.399 against them. While Jones isn’t the perfect fit, he’s immediately a better option than Peralta. Fewer trips to the dish means fewer chances to provide R+RBI. On the bright side, the overall batting average could look even better without those gross lefty-on-lefty plate appearances. There isn’t much speed to speak of though, giving Peralta more downside than upside at OF34/ADP126. They don’t make a topical cream for downside.

Projection: 575 Plate Appearances, 23 HR, 75 R, 75 RBI, .295 AVG

Are you down with Dokken’s Dudes and Don’ts? For more great rankings, strategy, and analysis check out the 2019 FantraxHQ Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. We’ll be adding more content from now right up until Opening Day!


Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.


Fantrax is one of the fastest growing fantasy sites of 2018. With multi-team trades, designated commissioner/league managers, and drag/drop easy click methods, Fantrax is sure to excite the serious fantasy sports fan – sign up now for a free year at Fantrax.com.

Filed Under: Fantasy

Nathan Dokken

About Nathan Dokken

Nathan Dokken is a member of the FSWA and has had his work featured in numerous books and magazines. He has also appeared on many podcasts and radio shows and hosts the Nasty Cast and Fantrax Dynasty Baseball podcasts. His written work can be found exclusively at Fantrax HQ, and his personal thoughts and opinions can be found on Twitter @NathanDokken.

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Primary Sidebar

Trade Away Your League for Fantrax
Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings

Dynasty Fantasy Baseball

Top-500 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings: February 2021

PODCASTS

Fantrax Toolshed | EP 19 | Prospects to Sell-High in Dynasty Leagues

Fantasy Hockey Life | EP. 100 | The Big 100s

Triple Play Fantasy Baseball’s EP 65 New Faces in New Places with Danny Vietti

Triple Play Fantasy Baseball EP. 65: An Interview with Former All-Star Shortstop, Jack Wilson

Five Tool Podcast |EP 48 | 2021 Redraft Rookie Mock Draft

MLB Player Analysis

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Fantasy Baseball ADP Breakdown: February Edition

March 1, 2021 By Chris Clegg Leave a Comment

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

2021 State of the Bullpen: National League Closer Preview

February 26, 2021 By Jorge Montanez 1 Comment

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Brady House: 2021 MLB Draft Scouting Report

February 26, 2021 By Chris Clegg Leave a Comment

Latest Fantasy Football

dynasty fantasy football

Joe Mixon: 2021 Offseason Dynasty Buy or Sell?

dynasty fantasy football

NFL Free Agency Analysis: Dynasty Buys at Tight End

dynasty fantasy football

NFL Free Agency Analysis: Dynasty Buys at Wide Receiver

Prospects/Dynasty

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Brady House: 2021 MLB Draft Scouting Report

February 26, 2021 By Chris Clegg

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Chicago Cubs Top Prospects for Fantasy Baseball

February 25, 2021 By Chris Clegg

2021 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Top Pitching Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball Redraft Leagues

February 24, 2021 By Eric Cross

Fantasy Basketball Analysis

Fantasy Basketball

Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire for Week 1

March 1, 2021 By Mike Omelan

Fantasy Basketball

Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 3/1/2021

February 28, 2021 By Bradlee Kilgore

Fantasy Basketball

Daily Preview and NBA DFS Picks for 2/28/2021

February 27, 2021 By Bradlee Kilgore

Footer

Follow @Fantrax
Fantrax The Home of Fantasy Sports

AUTHORS
CONTACT US
WRITE FOR US
PRIVACY POLICY

© 2021 Fantrax All Rights Reserved.