Divisional Round Rankings: NFL Playoff Fantasy Football

NFL playoff fantasy football rolls on with the Divisional Round! The Wild Card weekend gave us freezing cold temperatures, a game postponement, big upsets, and, more importantly, big fantasy performances from players like Josh Allen, Aaron Jones, and Jake Ferguson! Who will rise up in the Divisional Round to help you get one step closer to winning your NFL playoff fantasy football league? Check out my rankings and analysis below to point you in the right direction.

NFL Divisional Round Rankings by Position

Rankings last updated January 19th

QUARTERBACK

In his third playoff matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, Josh Allen finally gets home-field advantage. After having another QB1 fantasy season, averaging 24.2 points during the regular season, Allen’s 34.02 points last weekend have him firmly in the QB1 spot for NFL Playoff fantasy football, as well. Nearly 40% of his points were from rushing production. Speaking of rushing production, Lamar Jackson enters the Divisional Round as the QB2 with an average of 9.25 rush attempts per game on top of a career-best season in completions, pass attempts, and yards.

Patrick Mahomes comes in at third in the Divisional Round rankings, but Jared Goff is not far behind. In Mahomes’ first-ever road playoff game (crazy, right?), I expect a typical shootout with the Bills. Over his last five games, including a loss to the Bills, Mahomes is averaging 38.8 pass attempts and 263.6 yards per game. That provides a very safe floor. Meanwhile, Goff gets an unprecedented home game against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s allowing 267.6 passing yards per game. Goff is averaging 301.75 passing yards per game over his last four at home.

After picking apart the Cleveland Browns defense, C.J. Stroud is seemingly matchup-proof. However, heading on the road to Baltimore, who have had two weeks of preparation, still gives me pause. Brock Purdy, who has also had two weeks of prep, will host the Packers who, though they won, still let Dak Prescott throw for 403 yards and three touchdowns. However, I expect Christian McCaffrey to run all over Green Bay’s defense which lowers Purdy’s ceiling if he doesn’t toss a few scores early on.

Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love are at the bottom of the Divisional Round quarterback rankings out on the road. Mayfield has an obviously better matchup, but neither has enough going for them to rank inside the top six of the applicable eight quarterbacks.

RUNNING BACK

The best running back gets the best matchup of the Divisional Round. That’s Christian McCaffrey. Enough said.

In the same game, and just behind McCaffrey in the rankings, is Aaron Jones, who now has four straight games of 100+ rushing yards. To expect another three-touchdown game is foolish. However, he should continue to see a high-volume workload after 20 or more carries in each of his last four games. Isiah Pacheco should also see a heavy workload against the Bills after missing their first matchup back in Week 14. He has 253 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns on 50 touches over his last two games. Opposite Pacheco is James Cook who’s 10 rushes for 58 yards against the Chiefs in Week 14 was modest, but he added five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Jahmyr Gibbs rounds out the top five, though with the ongoing threat of David Montgomery stealing touches, especially in scoring position. The talent is obvious, but Gibbs did play just 19 snaps last week, his lowest number since Week 1. Rachaad White faces a stout Detroit Lions defense that allowed just 60 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. That doesn’t include holding breakout back, Kyren Williams, to just 61 in the Wild Card Round.

Devin Singletary is often overlooked because of how great C.J. Stroud and the passing game have been for the Houston Texans. The ceiling isn’t too high, but Singletary is averaging a strong 4.35 yards per carry since the beginning of December. He needs to see more than the 13 carries he had last week, though he’s only seen more than 13 carries in a game just five times this season.

Gus Edwards is touchdown-dependent, but you can often depend on him to score after finding the end zone 13 times this season. He has exactly one rushing touchdown in three of his last four games, as well. Otherwise, Edwards is averaging just 47.6 rush yards per game leaving a lot to be desired. Justice Hill is hard to trust for this reason battling both Edwards and Lamar Jackson for carries.

WIDE RECEIVER

Seven wide receivers topped 100 receiving yards in the Wild Card Round. Three of them are playing in the Divisional Round. One of them is Amon-Ra St. Brown and he has the best matchup of any receiver this weekend. St. Brown has 562 receiving yards and four touchdowns in his last five games.

Deebo Samuel has 36 targets to Brandon Aiyuk‘s 33 targets over the San Francisco 49ers’ last five games. Both are great Divisional Round options, but I’m giving the nod to Deebo who should see a few rush attempts against a vulnerable Packers run defense.

Against a tough Lions run defense, I expect Baker Mayfield to be busy through the air. Mike Evans should see 10 or more targets, something he’s done six times this season. Expect a few deep shots to him to really make the start count. Rashee Rice is undoubtedly Patrick Mahomes’ top wide receiver target. He’s averaging 9.42 targets over his last six games. More importantly, Rice is averaging 92.5 yards over this span with 257 in his last two. We’re witnessing a true rookie late-season breakout. Meanwhile, Stefon Diggs is still Josh Allen’s top guy. He hasn’t had 100 receiving yards since Week 16 or scored a touchdown since Week 12, but has a 29.4% target share this season. Believe in the volume.

Nico Collins will be a popular fantasy pick next season, but I’m tempering expectations for the Divisional Round against the Baltimore Ravens. When in doubt, C.J. Stroud finds his top guy, but the Ravens’ defense should put an emphasis on shutting him down. Still, Collins held his own for a 6/96/1 stat line against a very good Browns defense last week. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense allowed the 12th most receiving yards to wide receivers on just the 22nd most receptions during the regular season. Zay Flowers could be the latest rookie to have a big playoff debut.

It’s hard to trust any Green Bay Packers receiver for the Divisional Round of NFL playoff fantasy football. Jayden Reed‘s empty stat line in last week’s win is a shock while Romeo Doubs‘ 151 yards was second amongst all wide receivers across every game. This week it could very well be Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks having a big day, but I’m not too optimistic on the road against the 49ers’ defense. Call me crazy, but I still like Reed the most who had 318 all-purpose yards and four total touches on 30 touches in the Packers’ final four regular season games, though notably without Watson.

TIGHT END

I’m keeping Travis Kelce at the top of the tight end Divisional Round rankings. He has exactly 10 targets in his last three games against the Buffalo Bills. Kelce is also coming off of a 10-target game from Wild Card weekend, accounting for a 29.4% target share.

Sam LaPorta‘s three targets and 14 receiving yards from Wild Card weekend are both season lows. He still found the end zone and played 80% of the Detroit Lions’ offensive snaps. That’s encouraging for a player most thought was done for the season after a Week 18 knee injury. LaPorta gets a Divisional Round matchup with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that’s allowed the third-most receptions, yards, and touchdowns to tight ends.

Mark Andrews (ankle) will not be activated for the Divisional Round. Isaiah Likely will maintain a large role in a fantastic matchup against a Houston Texans defense that allowed over six receptions per game to tight ends during the regular season. Cleveland Browns tight ends, David Njoku and Harrison Bryant, also combined for 11 catches and 158 scoreless yards last weekend.

George Kittle will continue to battle Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk for touches on the San Francisco 49ers offense. He’s still a top target on arguably the best offense remaining in the NFL playoffs.

Meanwhile, Dalton Kincaid ranks a few spots higher than Dawson Knox. While both found the end zone last weekend, Kincaid has 21 targets to Knox’s five over the Buffalo Bills’ last three games.

Dalton Schultz’s two targets last weekend are an outlier to his 6.75 per game in his four prior at the end of the regular season. He will be more involved on the road against a tough Baltimore Ravens defense that, regardless of volume, may keep him quiet. Cade Otton will try to remain heavily involved for the Buccaneers after posting eight catches for 89 yards on 11 targets, all career-high numbers.

KICKER

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS