The trade deadline can always cause chaos around playing time and usage rates. It’s always prudent to slow down for a bit to acclimate yourself to the new landscape. However, most players have played with their new teams by now. Time to get back in the swing of things, with an excellent 10-game NBA DFS slate, and plenty of targets to mix and match! Let’s get into it!
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for Mar. 31
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons
Love it when the west coast teams go on their east coast swings. Now I don’t have to stay up until midnight on the eastern standard time to watch Dame play. However, this probably isn’t the game to pick. I’m not exactly expecting a blowout, but if the Pistons pull within 10 points after halftime, I’ll be surprised. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in net rating, but the Blazers are one of those teams that have two special players who can find ways to win. The Blazers are ten games over .500 this year, while the Pistons are 20 games below .500. Ride with the Blazers.
DFS Targets: POR targets: CJ, Dame, Nurkic, and Melo and DJJ are potential value targets. DET targets: Saddiq Bey, Jerami Grant, Saban Lee, and Plumlee.
Heat vs. Pacers
The Heat might just be back, y’all. Indiana just lost a close one to my Wizards (Russ needed a 30-point, 20-assist, and 10-board triple-double to get the job done for the Wiz), and I expect them to be a little low-energy after losing Jeremy Lamb. The Heat have been hitting on all cylinders since getting Jimmy Butler back. However, the Heat are one of the few teams that haven’t played with their new star yet. Victor Oladipo could shake things up and mess with the chemistry. They’ll be better over the long-run, but there are always growing pains. If Vic plays, take the Pacers. Vic sits again, take the Heat.
DFS Targets: MIA targets: Butler, Adebayo, Herro, and Ariza is a value play (albeit a low usage one). IND targets: Brogdon, Sabonis, and McConnell.
Mavericks vs. Celtics
The Celtics seem like they can play with anyone and lose to anyone. It’s truly a fascinating team. Dallas…well, they have Luka. Sometimes they have Luka and vintage Kristaps Porzingis. Both of these teams could’ve used a blockbuster-type trade in my opinion. Neither pulled the trigger. At the end of the day, these teams are essentially the same. The Mavs are 10th in net rating, while the C’s are 11th. I’ll go with the team that is better defensively, and that’s the Celtics at 22nd in the league (which is barely better than the Mavs at 23rd). Don’t be scared to throw a dollar or two at an overtime prop bet.
DFS Targets: DAL targets: Luka, Porzingis, and Josh Richardson (inconsistent, but can break a slate when he’s on). BOS targets: Tatum, Brown, Theis, and Walker.
Rockets vs. Nets
Nets. Blowout. Don’t think too hard.
DFS Targets: In a potential blowout game, I’d just stick with the stars, if you decide to target anybody from this game.
Jazz vs. Grizzlies
Jazz should win this one relatively easily. I say that because they have a top-four offense and top-four defense. Don’t anticipate a blowout though, as the Grizzlies are a defensive team in their own right, with the 7th ranked defense in the league. You would think Ja Morant has what it takes to keep this one close, but I don’t anticipate the Jazz losing this one.
DFS Targets: UTA targets: Mitchell, Gobert, and Ingles. MEM targets: Anderson, Morant, Brooks, and Jonas.
Knicks vs. Timberwolves
What are the Timberwolves going to do with the third-ranked defense in the league? Score? I think not. Knicks handle them easily in a low-scoring game. Who would’ve thought Thibs would have the Knicks as winners? Not me!
DFS Targets: NYK targets: Barrett, Randle, Burks, and D-Rose. MIN targets: Edwards and KAT.
Raptors vs. Thunder
If Kyle Lowry can suit up, this can be an easy win for the Raptors, if/when he doesn’t, the Raptors struggle beating anyone. On paper, they still look like a winning team without Lowry, but in practice, their offense because very stagnant, and 1-on-1 based. They also struggle getting stops defensively and going on breaks. Lowry’s defense is critical, not to mention his offensive IQ. I lean with the Raptors, tentatively.
DFS Targets: TOR targets: Lowry (if he plays), FVV, OG, Siakam, and Boucher. OKC targets: Moses Brown, maybe Lu Dort, maybe Poku. It’s slim pickings in OKC, with Shai out. But the Thunder keep finding ways to stay in games.
Kings vs. Spurs
Both of these teams are in the bottom tercile in net ratings for the league, but they differ where it matters (in my opinion). Defensively, the Spurs are a top-10 team. That can go a long way in a close game. If they can keep Fox from going off, the Spurs will take this one. Let’s go with the Spurs.
DFS Targets: SAC targets: Holmes, Fox, and Haliburton. SAS targets: White, Poeltl, and Johnson. Patty Mills can be a nice value play, as well.
Bucks vs. Lakers
No LeBron. Anthony Davis is still recovering. Andre Drummond probably won’t play. All of this while the Bucks are healthy and seemingly improving. They are a juggernaut. The Lakers 2nd team can’t handle all that. Expect a blowout here.
DFS Targets: I’d avoid targets here. We might only see starters play three quarters.
Bulls vs. Suns
Before the trade deadline, I might’ve said this is going to be a blowout. The Suns are 3rd in net rating. 5th in defensive rating. 8th in offensive rating. The Bulls are 20th in the league in net rating, but they just acquired an All-Star to pair with LaVine, and now they have Lauri coming off the bench. He’s a starter on most other teams, so that’s a heck of a second unit leader. I think the Suns win this one, but the Bulls can make it interesting.
DFS Targets: CHI targets: Vucevic, LaVine, and Lauri. PHO targets: Ayton, CP3, and Booker.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
If you are reading this on Fantrax.com make sure to head on over to FantraxHQ to check out Brad’s afternoon updates.
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