We’ve got another three game slate on the docket tonight, but all of these matchups have something for your daily DFS players, and casuals, alike. I’m excited to watch some basketball. These can be the most fun to play as tournaments may not fill up, and there are less relevant players in your player pool, so you might be able to pull down a win! Because the tournaments are bigger on Draftkings, I’ll focus on those prices, so be mindful if you’re using Fanduel, Yahoo, or any other competitor, that varying prices will also change the attractiveness of each play.
Playing NBA DFS can be incredibly rewarding, but it can also make your head spin. It’s our job to make sure you’re winning as much as possible! There are countless variables that can lead to a player’s individual performance, but I’ve found it’s best to focus on just a few that can lead to better predictability.
My favorite factors to track for NBA DFS targets: Matchups (Offensive/Defensive Ratings), Opportunity (expected player minutes, game pace), and Recent Form.
This is the AM VERSION of a living article that will be updated throughout the day, as news comes through the wire.
LET’S GET INTO THE SLATE!!!!
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NBA DFS Targets and Preview for December 7
Nets (16-7) vs. Mavericks (11-11)
Offensive Rating: 12th vs. 22st in the league
Defensive Rating: 6th vs. 17th in the league
Net Rating: 6th vs. 23rd in the league
Pace: 10th vs. 25th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The net rating of these two teams is the best indicator of what to expect. There’s a reason that one of these teams is nine games over .500, while the other one is middling. Kevin Durant and James Harden will be too much for Dallas, especially if they’re going to be without Luka (questionable).
DFS Targets: If Luka is in, he should be in your pool ($10900). If he’s out, however, more Dallas players become appealing in Kristaps ($7600), Brunson ($5200), and Kleber ($4400) as more usage rate is available for Dallas. For the Nets, stick with KD and Harden ($10800 and $10700), Aldridge will have value in a slower-paced gamed ($5700), and Bembry has solidified himself in the Nets’ rotation at $4300, receiving no less than 23 minutes in a game since November 17th.
Knicks (11-12) vs. Spurs (8-13)
Offensive Rating: 16th vs. 24th in the league
Defensive Rating: 22nd vs. 8th in the league
Net Rating: 20th vs. 16th in the league
Pace: 24th vs. 5th in the league
Predicted Outcome: The Knicks are a better team offensively, and frankly, with Kemba Walker out of the lineup, they’re a much better team defensively (closer to what they were last year, which is a staple Thibs coached team). The Knicks should win this one. The numbers are a bit misleading in this one, and I’ll be rolling with the Knicks.
DFS Targets: At $9500, it’s clear that Dejounte Murray has become a steal. He’s matchup proof, and the jump he’s taken this year has put him in contention for Most Improved Player, if you ask me. He’s had one game under 47 fantasy points in his last ten. I also like Jakob Poeltl in a slower paced game for the Spurs, with his price sitting at $5900. Keldon Johnson is inconsistent, but you may need him in your lineup to get high salary guys in. Same goes for Doug McDermott. As for the Knicks, Randle gets all the usage at $9100 and is a safe bet. Burks is too rich for my blood. Fournier is dirt cheap at $4700, as he started November in the $5600 range. Nerlens is a great value play at $3900.
Celtics (13-11) vs. Lakers (12-12)
Offensive Rating: 13th vs. 23rd in the league
Defensive Rating: 10th vs. 15th in the league
Net Rating: 9th vs. 22nd in the league
Pace: 23rd vs. 2nd in the league
Predicted Outcome: Look…I honestly don’t know. The Lakers are a different team every time I see them. If we get the Lakers that are as good as they can be on paper…they’re going to beat the Celtics. If we get one of those games where LeBron scores 30 points on 15 three point attempts, they’re going to lose. I don’t know what to expect. The Lakers are at home, so I’ll expect them to be looking their best. I tentatively go with LA.
DFS Targets: LeBron and AD are the only Lakers I’ll consider, because even at their worst, they’ll probably hit their value at $9900 and $10200, respectively. If Dwight Howard ($3800) starts, he’ll be in my lineups, but this is the late game, so it’s risky. Tatum and Horford are names I’ll probably be overweight on at $9400 and $7100. Dennis Schroder revenge game? I’m willing to make that bet at $6400.
Don’t forget to check back later in the day as Bradlee will be updating his NBA DFS preview with all the info you need to turn tonight’s slate into a resounding success!
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