The AFC South is in the midst of major changes, specifically at the quarterback position for all four teams. C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis, all from this year’s draft class, could all start for their respective teams this season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence, the 2021 first overall pick, continues to ascend as the starter for the Jacksonville Jaguars. With fresh and new beginnings for each AFC South franchise comes bold predictions that could impact certain players this fantasy football season.
I am continuing to highlight one fantasy football-related bold prediction from each team, division by division, until the start of the 2023 NFL season. These predictions will hopefully get the gears in your head turning. Most are positive while others may be negative. The likeliness that every single one of these predictions hits is certainly not 100%. However, they should generate some buzz or cause you to think twice about each player. Just be confident in your feelings when you’re on the clock.
Be sure to check out bold predictions from the other divisions all summer long on Fantrax as well as follow me on Twitter @Colin_McT for plenty more fantasy football content.
AFC South Bold Predictions for 2023 Fantasy Football
Houston Texans
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Robert Woods finishes as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver
When looking at wide receivers over the age of 30, Robert Woods wouldn’t be most people’s choice of the group to finish as a top-25 fantasy receiver. However, my bold prediction suggests Woods is one of the biggest late-round steals in 2023 fantasy drafts.
Woods’ 2022 campaign in Tennessee with the Titans is one to forget. However, there are some encouraging numbers to fuel optimism for his first season with the Houston Texans. For starters, Woods’ 17 games played are a career-high. That’s after a November 2021 ACL tear while with the Los Angeles Rams. Playing a full slate of games after just 10 months of recovery gets overlooked.
Woods’ 809 snaps played in 2022 ranks 33rd amongst all wide receivers. It’s worth noting the Tennessee Titans ranked 11th in rush attempts last season. The stat sheet may not show it, but Woods was the WR1 for the run-heavy Titans last season. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans, Woods’ new team, rank 30th in rush attempts last season.
Assuming the Texans have some growing pains with a new head coach and rookie quarterback, they should be playing from behind often this season. Woods has a career average of 6.95 targets per game. Over a 17-game span, that’s a 119-target pace. While there are some possible breakout candidates amongst the Houston pass catchers, Woods’ 2-year/$15.25 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed, strongly suggests he is expected to be C.J. Stroud’s top option in the passing game.
I’m not asking you to reach for Robert Woods in your 2023 fantasy football drafts. My bold prediction is merely to encourage you to take a flier on him with one of your last picks. His Average Draft Position is criminally low. You would be hard-pressed to find another player that could easily draw 100 or more targets in the 14th or so round.
Indianapolis Colts
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Anthony Richardson finishes outside the top-24 quarterbacks in points per game
I’m making this bold prediction in late July so it’s subject to a complete backfire if Anthony Richardson is named the Colts’ Week 1 starter. Even so, Richardson’s rushing upside has some fantasy managers expecting a 2022 Justin Fields-like season from him as a rookie. Let’s pretend for a second Richardson isn’t named the Week 1 starter and discuss the approach in drafting him.
While the rushing upside is glaringly obvious, Richardson enters the NFL with just 393 collegiate pass attempts. He threw 327 of them in 2022 alone. His experience as a starter is limited. Richardson also threw nine of his 15 interceptions in college last season in just 12 games. Expecting Richardson to step in and play to the level of other rookies, such as Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, specifically as a passer, is a tall order.
As for the rushing aspect of Richardson’s game, it’s likely suppressed by running back Jonathan Taylor, who is entering the final year of his rookie deal. Taylor has a career average of 17.58 rush attempts per game and won the rushing title in 2021.
The Colts inked Richardson to a fully guaranteed $33.99 million rookie contract. He’s an extremely enticing dynasty asset. However, for the 2023 season, I’m not sure when, if at all, fantasy managers will feel comfortable starting him, especially in 1QB leagues. He could spend significant time clogging up your bench. If his upside is too much for you to pass on, then pair him with a safe, late option at the position like Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, or Jared Goff.
Jacksonville Jaguars
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Calvin Ridley logs career-high targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns
In order for Calvin Ridley to meet this bold prediction, he needs to catch at least 91 passes for 1,375 yards and 11 touchdowns. The most targets he’s seen in a single season was 143 in 15 games during the 2020 season in Atlanta.
Week 1 of the 2023 season will be Ridley’s first game since October 24, 2021. Some fantasy managers new to the game may not even realize who he is. Calvin Ridley is just 28 years old and was an elite WR2 option behind WR1, Julio Jones, when both played for the Falcons.
Upon Julio’s departure in 2021, Ridley finally got his chance to be the alpha before a foot injury that ended his season after just five games. In those five games, Ridley drew a whopping 52 targets for an average of 10.4 per game. In three seasons prior, Ridley averaged 7.45 targets per game alongside Julio Jones, for the most part.
Now, on the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ridley should compete to be Trevor Lawrence’s top option in the passing game. The Jags’ top-three pass catchers in 2022 are all returning in 2023. That’s Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram. Ridley should draw from their collective 61% of last season’s targets. Furthermore, Marvin Jones leaves behind 81 targets of his own from last season that Ridley should command most of.
In order to do so, Ridley will have to command a significant amount of snaps in 2023. Kirk and Zay Jones each played 84% or more of the wide receiver snaps while Marvin Jones accounted for 64% of snaps in 2022. I expect Ridley to at least slide into Zay Jones’ role and delegate him to Marvin Jones’ from last season. As far as scoring goes, both Kirk and Zay Jones rank top-13 in 2022 red zone targets. Calvin Ridley should see a significant role there and push for double-digit scores.
Tennessee Titans
McTamany’s Bold Prediction: Derrick Henry finishes outside the top 12 running backs
Derrick Henry is one of my favorite players in the league. For years now, people have been anticipating a serious decline in his game. While it’s yet to be seen, my bold prediction for 2023 is that we do in fact see a dramatic drop-off in fantasy production this season.
As the Tennessee Titans prepare for training camp, their offensive line looks a lot different than it did this time last year. As it stands, center Aaron Brewer and right guard Nicholas Petit-Frere are the only starters who played 90% or more of starter snaps in 2022. Petit-Frere is suspended for the first six games for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. On the left side of the offensive line, former first-round pick Andre Dillard gets a fresh start after failing to make any impact on the Philadelphia Eagles. At guard, 11th overall pick, Peter Skoronski, will start immediately as a 21-year-old rookie.
The Titans’ offensive line is arguably the worst, or at least inexperienced, in the league. Now, factor in that Henry is turning 30 with 2,046 career touches, including playoffs. Henry’s attempts per game, yards per game, and yards per attempt have noticeably declined since his incredible 2020 season. Even his longest run of 56 yards last season is an example of a drop in explosiveness after five straight seasons of breaking a 74-yard run or longer in each of them.
In order for Henry to remain in the RB1 conversation, he needs another 300 or more carries. With said volume, he needs another season of double-digit rushing touchdowns, as well. He has just 140 receptions over seven seasons. After adding DeAndre Hopkins to a receiving core of wide receiver Treylon Burks and tight end Chig Okonkwo, the Titans could balance their offense more this season. He will always be “King Henry”, but I’m investing in younger players with higher upside with the draft capital needed to draft him this season.
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— Fantrax (@Fantrax) July 4, 2023