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ADP vs. Ranks – 3 Tight End Overpays for 2023 Fantasy Football

When drafting, it is important to stay up to date with what the market is doing. This allows you to evaluate your rankings against the current ADP to find both potential values and pitfalls. Today we’re going to take a look at three tight end overpays for 2023 fantasy football. When doing so, we will use their current ADP (as of via 8/07 Fantrax).

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ADP vs. Ranks – 3 Tight End Overpays

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (53 Standard/56 PPR)

When it comes to Kittle, this is partly due to draft philosophy. To draft a tight end at this point in the draft is a true investment and I am not sure that Kittle is up to the task. There has been a lot said about the uncertainty at the quarterback position for San Francisco, and that just adds to the questions surrounding Kittle.

Last season, Kittle did establish chemistry with Brock Purdy, but it remains to be seen if he is truly healthy. There are questions about Trey Lance from a passing perspective and we all know about Sam Darnold’s limitations. Even while the tight end did have success with Purdy, Kittle was streaky last season. Overall, he caught 11 touchdown passes, but eight of them came in four games.

To further that point, Kittle had never caught more than six touchdowns in a season, and we know how streaky that production can be. Overall, Kittle caught 60 of 86 targets for 765 yards with 12 receptions of at least 20 yards. On a game-by-game basis though, Kittle only had one game with more than six catches, and in most weeks if he did not find the end zone, he was a non-factor.

With a draft day cost of a fifth-round pick, he comes into the season as one of my tight end overpays. And that is simply too expensive. The 49ers have too many weapons with Christian McCaffrey in the fold for a full season along with Elijah Mitchell in the backfield. When you then factor in Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, it will be hard for Kittle to find consistent targets.

Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (69 Standard/69 PPR)

This is a continuation of the theme above with Kittle, as there is not enough here to warrant the price. While we often chase touchdowns, especially with tight ends, Goedert does not even contribute in that area of the game. And this makes Goedert one of our tight end overpays for the upcoming season.

Touchdowns are often times cyclical, but Goedert is a victim of Philadelphia simply having too man weapons. Even prior to that point, Goedert never caught more than five touchdowns in a season. Last year, Goedert finished with three touchdowns as the ability of Jalen Hurts on the ground does not help here. The issue here really is the lack of red zone targets and not production, and it is difficult to expect that to change.

With that being said, Goedert is a solid option who caught 55 of his 69 targets for 702 yards. That came a season after he caught 56 passes, and excluding his rookie year, Goedert is averaging 54 receptions and 66 yards. There is a lot to like with the consistency and Goedert’s seemingly secure role in the offense, but I am struggling to find upside.

I do want to add the caveat that Goedert did miss five games last year with a shoulder injury, so a full season could mean a 1,000-yard season. That coupled with the optimism of him working with the wide receivers this off-season will drive up the draft price, but I still struggle to find comfort with the price without the touchdowns.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (33 PPR/36 Standard)

I get it, Andrews is very talented and he produces at a high level. There is no disputing that. But is he worth a third-round pick? And if you select Andrews in the third round, what does that do to your roster build?

So maybe I am the problem, but to me, Andrews in the third round makes my list of tight end overpays.

In 15 games last year, Andrews only caught five touchdown passes. He was targeted 113 times which turned into 73 receptions for 847 yards, and I have doubts as to whether that is truly elite. This season, things will likely get more difficult for Andrews with increased options for Lamar Jackson to pass to. Between the continued emergence of Isaiah Likely, the drafting of Zay Flowers, and the acquisition of Odell Beckham, Jackson will just not be looking Andrews’ way.

For more great rankings and analysis, make sure to check out our 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

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